NHL betting preview (Dec. 12): Penguins vs. Canadiens odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens. This is the final meeting between these two clubs, with Pittsburgh winning the first two games.
Penguins vs. Canadiens Odds
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: -140
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +120
- Puck Line: Penguins -1.5 (-210), Canadiens +1.5 (+170)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Penguins (12-18 SU, 13-17 ATS, 17-12-1 O/U)
Pittsburgh has lost two of its last three games but has won five of its last seven. In other words, it’s hard to tell if the Penguins will continue their best stretch of hockey or fall down the standings. This is because the team still looks mediocre—or, in some cases, downright bad.
Even during this recent stretch, Pittsburgh ranks among the bottom five teams in five-on-five goals against and shots against per 60 minutes. So, while they might be scoring more goals, they still grade out as one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. Over the last month, Pittsburgh ranked 32nd in shot differential and 18th in expected goal share.
Goaltender Tristan Jarry’s starts have also been more miss than hit. Since returning from the AHL, he ranks as the third-worst goaltender in goals saved above expected (minimum 300 unblocked shot attempts faced) and is among the bottom 10 in save percentage.
Sidney Crosby has been productive, but he has just one goal in his last 10 games and only two in his last 16. The same goes for Evgeni Malkin, who seems to score about once every five games, if he’s lucky. Crosby has 25 goals and 41 assists in 51 career games versus the Canadiens, but he’s gone pointless in three out of his last four games against Montreal.
Players like Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, and Michael Bunting are scoring the majority of the goals, and that’s part of the problem. Pittsburgh’s superstars are still good, but their days of carrying the team to victory night in and night out appear to be over—and have been for a while.
That said, the Penguins have won five in a row against Montreal, including the Canadiens being the only team they’ve defeated twice this season.
Handicapping the Canadiens (11-17 SU, 14-14 ATS, 14-13-1 O/U)
Montreal is also in the midst of its best stretch of hockey this season. After winning just four of their first 15 games, the Canadiens have won seven of their last 13 and improved their home record to 8-6-2, thanks in large part to strong play from Samuel Montembeault. Over his last nine home games, Montembeault has posted a 5-2-2 record with a .929 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average. The Canadiens have already confirmed that he will start on Thursday, which comes as no surprise, as Cayden Primeau likely won’t see action until the team plays back-to-back games against the Detroit Red Wings later this month.
Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have been key contributors to Montreal’s 7-5-1 record over the past month. Suzuki leads the team with 16 points in the last 13 games, while Caufield has added seven goals and seven assists during that stretch. Lane Hutson has also found his stride, recording points in seven consecutive games and climbing to second among all rookie skaters in scoring with 19 points. And let’s not overlook Patrik Laine, who has tallied three goals—all on the power play—and four points in four games since returning from the injury that sidelined him for the first 24 games.
However, the Canadiens still face challenges with inconsistent production from some of their top forwards. Juraj Slafkovsky and Kirby Dach each recorded a point against Anaheim, but Slafkovsky has managed just four points in his last 12 games, while Dach has only four points in his last 13. Meanwhile, Alex Newhook has just six points—all goals—through 28 games this season. The team’s offensive struggles are evident, as the Canadiens have scored four or more goals in only seven of their 28 games, largely due to three of their top-six forwards struggling simultaneously.
Best Bets for Penguins vs. Canadiens
- Patrick Laine Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-120) at Sports Interaction
Laine should’ve registered three shots on goal against the Ducks, but thankfully, he scored early in that game. However, he still hasn’t scored an even-strength goal. He’ll have an opportunity to change that on Tuesday, as the Penguins have allowed more even-strength goals than any other team, including the Canadiens, and that trend has persisted over the last month. Laine has attempted at least five shots in each of his last three games, and his ice time has increased with each outing. No team has allowed more shots per 60 minutes than the Penguins, so shooting lanes should be open for the big winger.
- Kris Letang Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+135) at Sports Interaction
Kris Letang has registered three or more shots in nearly half of his games this season, so it’s unclear why he would be priced at such long odds to do so against a team like Montreal. The Canadiens are the third-worst team in shot attempts allowed (per 60), and only six teams have allowed more shots on goal. Letang has registered 21 shots on goal in his last five games, and this prop has hit in 13 of his last 21 games. However, the odds imply only about a 43 percent chance of that happening. Therefore, I believe the sportsbooks are underestimating the likelihood of Letang registering three or more shots, making this a solid bet.