NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct. 20): Canadiens overvalued vs. Sabres
In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy news and betting notes surrounding Monday’s five-game NHL slate and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
Best Bet – Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: +125 bet365
The Montreal Canadiens will likely prove to be the superior of these two teams this season, but they appear to be getting a little too much credit from oddsmakers to hold a -150 price tag in this matchup.
More of my interest in backing the Sabres at +125 actually comes down to my belief that this is a good time to buy on the Sabres, rather than a desire to fade the Canadiens.
The Sabres took a ton of grief for their 0-3 start, but they have bounced back with highly convincing wins over the Ottawa Senators and Florida Panthers, playing to a combined goal differential of 11-4 in those matchups.
The Sabres exhibited excellent puck movement in both of those matchups, and benefitted from Zach Benson’s return to the lineup, as he’s racked up five points in two games. Josh Doan has also been excellent, tallying five points in the first five games of the season.
While I was bullish on the Canadiens entering the year, during their 4-2-0 start they have played just one team that made the playoffs last season, and may be slightly overvalued. During the first three games of this homestand they have not looked overly dominant, a point that has been masked thanks to two dramatic comeback wins over the Seattle Kraken and Nashville Predators, before a well-deserved loss on Saturday versus the New York Rangers.
Alex Lyon has played to a +4.1 GSAx rating this season, and the Sabres should be able to hang around with Montreal in terms of chance creation in this matchup.
With that in mind, I’m happy to take a chance on the Sabres at +125.
Minnesota Wild vs New York Rangers
| Wild moneyline odds | +125 |
| Rangers moneyline odds | -150 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 (-110) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- As readers who follow me in the Action Network betting app (Nick Martin) will have seen, I was quite confident that the oddsmakers’ opening price of -120 on this matchup were inaccurate. It looked as though the Rangers were likely to close in the -135 range, until Marco Rossi was confirmed out with a lower-body injury this morning, which has moved the line to -150.
- Joel Eriksson Ek will overtake Rossi’s role on the top line.
- The dam finally burst for the Rangers offensively in their last matchup, as they rattled off four consecutive goals to erase a 2-0 deficit in Montreal on Saturday night.
- Over their last four matchups, the Rangers hold a 41-to-6 edge in high-danger chances over their opponents.
Seattle Kraken vs Philadelphia Flyers
| Kraken moneyline odds | +115 |
| Flyers moneyline odds | -135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- The Kraken are one of four NHL teams that have still not lost inside of regulation. Four of their five games played have gone to overtime, and they are 2-2-0 in those matchups.
- Number-one goaltender Joey Daccord is expected to start for the Kraken, but has not been confirmed. Daccord is 3-0-1 this season with a 2.39 GAA and .912 SV%. The gap between Daccord and backup Philipp Grubauer has been quite significant in recent years, so the final confirmation is critical from a betting perspective.
- While bettors should always be careful to confirm who will be in Seattle’s crease, the gap between Dan Vladar and Samuel Ersson may also prove to be highly significant. Vladar holds a .934 save percentage in three appearances this season, while Ersson was among the NHL’s worst starters last year.
- Matvei Michkov has had an ugly start to the year, and head coach Rick Tocchet offered the young winger only 12:07 of ice time in Saturday’s matchup.
- While it seems fair to defend Tocchet’s usage of Michkov to some extent, I can’t see why Tocchet has already pivoted Trevor Zegras back to the wing and dropped him to the third line. Zegras has competed well this season, and it feels like odd timing to put him back on the wing.
Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens
| Sabres moneyline odds | +125 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -150 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
- Canadiens are wrapping up a four-game homestand in this matchup. Have played to a 2-1-0 record at home this season, with a 48.76% expected goal share.
- Jakub Dobes has been confirmed as the Canadiens’ starting goaltender. Dobes has played to a .946 save percentage and 1.46 GAA in his first two games of the season, after finishing with a +9.0 GSAx rating in 16 appearances last season.
- The Sabres currently have eight players on the IR, with the two most notable absences being Josh Norris and Michael Kesselring.
- Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is also on the IR, but his loss has not been overly relevant to this point, as he likely would not have offered results than we have seen from Alex Lyon so far this season.
- Patrik Laine, Kirby Dach, and Kaiden Guhle will miss this matchup for the Canadiens.
- The Canadiens won all four matchups between these two sides last season and averaged 5.25 goals per game.
Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames
| Jets moneyline odds | -150 |
| Flames moneyline odds | +125 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
- The Flames gave Dustin Wolf no chance of success during their ugly 6-1 loss in Vegas on Saturday, offering one of the worst defensive performances of any team this season.
- Calgary has allowed 4.17 goals against per game this season, while generating only 1.67 goals for per game (last in NHL).
- Jonathan Huberdeau returned to the lineup for the Flames on Saturday, recording the team’s only goal during his 18:48 of time on ice.
- The Jets have won four straight games in regulation, playing to a combined goal differential of 17-7 in that span.
- Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor have combined for 17 points in the first five matchups of the season.
- Connor Hellebuyck has not been confirmed as the Jets’ starting goaltender, and it is certainly possible backup Eric Comrie gets the start in this matchup. Comrie held a .914 save percentage last season and +2.4 GSAx in 20 appearances.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights
| Hurricanes moneyline odds | -105 |
| Golden Knights moneyline odds | -115 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
- The Hurricanes are currently the outright favorites to win the Stanley Cup, while the Knights are priced as the fourth favorites. Carolina is also the betting favorite to win the Presidents’ Trophy, while Vegas is the third favorite in that market.
- Neither side has lost in regulation this season, while Carolina is the only remaining team to have won every matchup (5-0-0).
- Nikolaj Ehlers has still not recorded a point this season despite offering relatively solid play on what has been a highly effective Hurricanes top line alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis.
- Jack Eichel leads the league with 15 points in six games this season, while Mark Stone ranks second in the NHL with 13 points.
- Jarvis leads all Hurricanes skaters in both goals and points, and has already recorded four game-winning goals this season.