NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct .16): Look for Rangers to bounce back vs. Maple Leafs

In this article I’ll outline the most noteworthy news and betting notes surrounding Thursday’s 11-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best Bet: New York Rangers Moneyline +120 bet365

The New York Rangers have been the butt-end of a lot of jokes this week, after becoming the first team in NHL history to be shut out in each of their first three home games of the season. And they enter this matchup in the midst of a two-game losing skid, in which they generated zero goals versus a pair of high-quality sides, the Washington Capitals and Edmonton Oilers.

Though the final scorelines won’t suggest it, there were certainly some positives to take away from the losses. The Rangers played to a combined expected goal score of 6.69 to 2.72 in the two games but failed to capitalize on their strong output of quality scoring chances. 

While the offensive upside of the Rangers’ bottom six looks unconvincing, their top two lines are still littered with proven scorers, and they do not project as a side that will finish scoring chances off at a worse than average rate this season. With that in mind and a Vezina-winning goaltender in between the pipes, the Rangers should find more success in the near future if they continue to exhibit such a sound process. 

The Rangers have cleaned things up defensively this season under Mike Sullivan, as they rank 10th in xGA/60 and have allowed only 1.40 actual goals against per game. Igor Shesterkin has been razor-sharp with a save percentage of .972, partly due to the fact that the team in front of him has been much sharper defensively compared to last season, when the Rangers were among the worst defensive sides in the league. 

Toronto has been somewhat unconvincing during its 2-2-0 start to the season, which has come versus a soft schedule. It has not yet played a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and has had only one matchup versus a team that is favored to make the playoffs, the rival Montreal Canadiens. 

The Leafs hold a 47.8% expected goal share at even strength and have allowed 3.75 goals against per game. Their defensive core has exhibited mediocre puck-movement and play-driving abilities, and it’s possible those flaws will continue all season long relative to other contenders.

At +120, I’m happy to attempt to buy low on the Rangers in this spot, given the strong potential that they can make this game into a coin flip based on their strong defensive form and the elite play of Shesterkin in goal. 

Colorado Avalanche vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Avalanche moneyline odds	-165
Blue Jackets moneyline odds	+140
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• One of three games on the slate to feature a betting total of 6.5. These sides split their head-to-head matchups last season, and the games featured 18 combined goals. 
• Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas have combined for 16 points in the first four games of the season, teaming up on both the top line and top power-play unit.
• With four goals in four games, Kirill Marchenko continues to prove himself as one of the NHL’s more underrated goal-scorers. 
• After finishing last season with a +17 goal differential, the Blue Jackets’ top line of Marchenko, Sean Monahan, and Dmitri Voronkov has been highly effective once again, outscoring opponents four to nothing. 
• Goaltender Elvis Merzlikins will make his second start of the season for the Blue Jackets. He stopped 48 of 52 shots faced in his previous start of the season versus the Minnesota Wild. It could be a competitive battle between Merzlikins and Jet Greaves for the number-one role in Columbus; Greaves outperformed Merzlikins last season, but is unproven at the NHL level. 
• Samuel Girard will miss this matchup due to injury.

Florida Panthers vs New Jersey Devils

Panthers moneyline odds	+130
Devils moneyline odds	-155
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Panthers have only been a larger than +130 underdog three times dating back to the start of last season. As they are playing back-to-back with Daniil Tarasov likely to start in goal, and without Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk in the lineup, this presents as a tough matchup.
• Tarasov held a -4.4 GSAx rating and .881 save percentage in 20 appearances last season with the Blue Jackets. He stopped 17 of 20 shots faced in his Panthers debut on Monday versus the Philadelphia Flyers. However, most viewers of the game would agree he was not as shaky as the stat line suggests and gave his team a chance on a night when the Panthers were outplayed overall.
• The Devils will be playing their home opener in this matchup.
• Jake Allen will start in goal for New Jersey, as number-one netminder Jacob Markstrom is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Allen held a +18.4 GSAx rating and .906 save percentage in 31 appearances last season. 

New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Rangers moneyline odds	+120
Maple Leafs moneyline odds	-140
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Rangers will be desperate to get it going offensively after becoming the first team in NHL history to open up the season by being shut out in each of their first three home games. 
• Igor Shesterkin holds a .972 save percentage and has allowed only 0.76 goals against per game in his three starts this season. 
• After recording his first NHL point during the Leafs’ 7-4 win over the Nashville Predators Tuesday evening, highly touted forward Easton Cowan is expected to remain on Toronto’s top line alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. 
• Toronto won two of three matchups between these sides last season.

Nashville Predators vs Montreal Canadiens

Predators moneyline odds	+135
Canadiens moneyline odds	-160
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Predators will be playing their third game in four days in this matchup. 
• Predators netminder Juuse Saros has had an excellent start to the season, stopping .947 percent of shots faced and allowing a 1.47 GAA in his first three starts. 
• The Canadiens have confirmed that Jakub Dobes will start in goal. Dobes held a +9.0 GSAx rating in 16 appearances last season, and stopped 30 of 31 shots faced in his season debut versus the Detroit Red Wings. 
• Based on today’s morning skate, the Predators have adjusted their offensive lines, as Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos skated together on the top unit. 

Seattle Kraken vs Ottawa Senators

Kraken moneyline odds	+120
Senators moneyline odds	-140
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Senators will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back and their third game in four days, after losing 8-4 to the Buffalo Sabres Wednesday evening. 
• Senators’ number-one goaltender Linus Ullmark rested in last night’s matchup and is expected to start in this game as a result. Ullmark has struggled so far this season, posting an .842 save percentage and 4.07 GAA in his first three appearances.
• Senators captain Brady Tkachuk is week-to-week with a wrist injury. 
• Kraken will start backup Philipp Grubauer in this matchup. The gap between Grubauer and number-one goaltender Joey Daccord has been among the most significant in the NHL over the last two seasons. Grubauer struggled to a -18.1 GSAx rating last season and a -5.8 GSAx in the 2023-24 season. 
• The Kraken have to be viewed as one of the NHL’s biggest risers in the very early stages of the season, playing to a record of 2-0-1 and a 50.77% expected goal share. 

Winnipeg Jets vs Philadelphia Flyers

Jets moneyline odds	-135
Flyers moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Jets have not yet confirmed Connor Hellebuyck will start in goal, but he did rest on Monday versus the New York Islanders. 
• The Flyers have confirmed that Samuel Ersson will start in goal. Ersson struggled to a -19.9 GSAx and .883 save percentage in 47 appearances last season. 
• Winnipeg has allowed 4.34 xGA/60 this season, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL. Chances are the Jets will clean things up defensively to some extent moving forward, but underrated shutdown defender Dylan Samberg’s absence due to injury has been noteworthy.
• The Flyers offered a very sharp performance in their home opener on Monday versus the Florida Panthers and were rightfully awarded with a 5-2 victory. They have had quite a difficult schedule thus far, having played the Panthers twice and a road game versus the undefeated Carolina Hurricanes.
• Cam York has been activated from the IR, and in a corresponding move, Emil Andrae has been reassigned to the AHL.

Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders

Oilers moneyline odds	-170
Islanders moneyline odds	+145
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7:30 p.m. ET

• Head coach Kris Knoblauch made some significant changes to his offensive units at Wednesday’s practice, pairing Andrew Mangiapane and David Tomasek with Connor McDavid on the top unit and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Roslovic with Leon Draisaitl on the second unit. 
• Chances are Knoblauch will continue to adjust his offensive units quite consistently all season long and choose whether or not to play McDavid and Draisaitl together based upon the matchup. 
• The Islanders are the only team left in the NHL to have earned zero points. While the team in front of him has not been great, goaltender Ilya Sorokin has struggled mightily this season, and as a result, David Rittich has been named the starter in this matchup.
• Rittich played to a -11.4 GSAx and .886 save percentage in 34 appearances last season with the Los Angeles Kings. 

Vancouver Canucks vs Dallas Stars

Canucks moneyline odds	+155
Stars moneyline odds	-185
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	8 p.m. ET

• The Canucks have not looked much better to start the season under new head coach Adam Foote, playing to a record of 1-2-0 and earning their only win in a favorable spot versus the Calgary Flames. 
• I’ll be the first to admit that I thought Elias Pettersson would bounce back this season under Foote. So far that take has been horrible, as Pettersson has recorded just one assist in the first three games, while not looking overly threatening.
• Casey DeSmith will make his season debut in goal for the Stars. DeSmith was one of the league’s best second options last season, stopping  +15.9 goals above expected with a .915 save percentage in 27 appearances. 

Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights

Bruins moneyline odds	+185
Golden Knights moneyline odds	-225
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• After a slow start last season following what was reportedly a highly contentious contract negotiation, Jeremy Swayman has had an excellent start to the year, stopping .966 percent of shots faced during his first two appearances, earning two victories. He is expected to start in this matchup after resting in Monday’s matchup versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. 
• Bruins have allowed only 3.18 xGA/60, and could be improved to last season under head coach Marco Sturm, and with top defenders Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm healthy. 
• Akira Schmid is expected to start in goal for the Knights, as Adin Hill is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Schmid holds a .929 save percentage in two appearances this season, and finished with a +2.4 GSAx rating in five appearances last season. 

Carolina Hurricanes vs Anaheim Ducks

Hurricanes moneyline odds	-185
Ducks moneyline odds	+155
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-105)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• One of three matchups to hold a betting total of 6.5 goals on tonight’s slate. 
• Hurricanes entered the year as betting favorites to win the Presidents’ Trophy, and after a 3-0-0 start, are down to +600 to win the finish the regular season with the most points. 
• Leo Carlsson leads all Ducks skaters with five points in the first three games of the season. He is expected to center the top line alongside Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn in this matchup, and work the half-wall on what has been a highly effective power play thus far (36.4% success rate). 
• Nikolaj Ehlers has been held pointless in his first three games with the Hurricanes, despite the fact that the Hurricanes’ top line of Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Ehlers has looked threatening. 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings

Penguins moneyline odds	+165
Kings moneyline odds	-200
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+105), Under 6.5 (-15)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• One of three matchups to hold a betting total of 6.5 goals on tonight’s slate. 
• Kings captain Anze Kopitar missed practice Wednesday and is considered day-to-day ahead of this matchup. 
• Kings have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender for this matchup, but may opt to use the soft spot to hand backup Anton Forsberg his second start of the season. Forsberg held a +2.2 GSAx rating and .901 save percentage in 30 appearances last season with the Senators.
• Evgeni Malkin records the team with six points through four games, and has found surprisingly strong chemistry playing with Justin Brazeau on the second line. Brazeau leads the team with four goals.