NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct. 21): Kraken overvalued vs. Capitals

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes surrounding Tuesday’s 10-game NHL slate and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best Bet – Washington Capitals -1.5: +100 bet365

Six games into head coach Lane Lambert’s tenure as head coach, the Seattle Kraken have looked to be one of the NHL’s most improved sides. They are 3-1-2, and betting them in every matchup would have yielded a +14.7% ROI.

With respect to the Kraken’s solid start, a team that I did believe would be quietly respectable this season, they appear to be overvalued entering tonight’s matchup versus the Washington Capitals. 

The Kraken will be playing back-to-back and for the third time in four days on Tuesday evening, offering a significant rest advantage to the Capitals in this matchup.

It was widely anticipated that the Capitals would regress after leading the Eastern Conference with 111 points last season. However, the first six games of the season they have looked similarly strong, with the Caps ranking second in expected goal share while earning a record of 4-2-0.

The Capitals did not come out ready to play Sunday afternoon in a sleepy spot versus the Vancouver Canucks, digging themselves a four-goal deficit, but flexed their offensive upside in a dominant final 40 minutes of play. 

Washington’s deep defensive core has done a great job driving play into the offensive zone this season, where the team continues to manage lengthy stretches of pressure with strong five-man attacks involving lots of interchange and high-cycles. 

The Kraken rank 22nd in even-strength expected goal share, but have covered up for a lesser share of the overall run of play thanks to top-third ranks in both shooting and save percentage. 

Joey Daccord was pulled after two periods last night, so it’s not impossible that he will start this game. It’s more likely the start will go to Philipp Grubauer, though, and oddsmakers have had a hard time catching up to the disparity between the two over the last three seasons. 

Dating back to the 2023-24 season, the Kraken are 21-34 straight up in games started by Grubauer, and fading them in those matchups would have yielded bettors a +19% ROI. Over the last two seasons, Grubauer holds a -16.7 GSAx, and backing the opposition to cover the puck line in those starts would have returned a +23.5% ROI.

 Edmonton Oilers vs Ottawa Senators

Oilers moneyline odds	-125
Senators moneyline odds	+105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• After entering the season tied as the outright Stanley Cup favorites, the Oilers have been one of the NHL’s most noteworthy underachievers in playing to a record of 2-3-1. 
• The Oilers played to a record of 4-5-1 in the first 10 games last season, before posting a record of 44-24-4 the rest of the way, and ultimately making it into the Stanley Cup Final. They are clearly not in top form yet, but relative to other teams off to slow starts, what we have seen so far may not be overly indicative of how the season will go.
• Evan Bouchard has tallied zero points in the first six games of the season, and had one of his worst stretches of play of his career. That’s fuelled Bouchard’s naysayers plenty of ammunition, but pretending he typically offers this level of play is entirely inaccurate. 
• At 2-4-0, the Senators have also been one of the NHL’s more notable disappointments, and their poor start playing out of a highly-competitive Atlantic Division may prove more significant than Edmonton’s. 
• The Senators have allowed a league-high 5.00 goals against per game, and their goaltending tandem has played to the lowest save percentage in the NHL (82.1%). 
• The Oilers blue-line will receive a significant boost in this matchup, as Jake Walman is set to make his season debut.

New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Devils moneyline odds	+100
Leafs moneyline odds	-120
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Devils have looked excellent during their four-game winning streak, with all four wins coming in regulation while playing to a 56.53% expected goal share. 
• Jack Hughes has racked up three goals and five points over the last three matchups while looking like a Hart-caliber player once again.
• Max Domi will play alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on the top line, while Easton Cowan will be made a healthy scratch. 
• Dougie Hamilton is back on the Devils’ top power-play unit, a role which was occupied by Luke Hughes at the start of the season. 

San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders

Sharks moneyline odds	+185
Islanders moneyline odds	-225
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• One of two games with a betting total of 6.5 on tonight’s 10-game slate. Seems warranted, as these two sides rank 32nd (NYI) and 29th (SJS) in xGA/60.
• Ilya Sorokin has been confirmed as the Islanders’ starting goaltender. Sorokin holds an .860 save percentage and -2.3 GSAx rating in his first four starts this season. 
• Yaroslav Askarov has been confirmed as the Sharks’ starting goaltender. He holds an .833 save percentage and -2.4 GSAx rating in two games played this season. 
• Matthew Schaefer has looked incredible in the first five games of the season, and is now the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy at +190, after starting the year priced at +2000.
• The Sharks will be looking for their first win of the season and are the only team yet to record a win. 

Vancouver Canucks vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Canucks moneyline odds	-110
Penguins moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Canucks’ injury list has ballooned up to eight skaters, after Filip Chytil and Jonathan Lekkerimaki were injured in their previous matchup versus the Capitals. It is unclear if Brock Boeser will return to the lineup or not after missing Sunday’s matchup for personal reasons. 
• Elias Pettersson turned in his best performance of the season Sunday, tallying a goal while turning in a terrific defensive performance. 
• Canucks are 3-1-0 on the road this season, after finishing with reverse splits last season (21-14-6 on the road, 17-16-8 at home). 
• Penguins have outperformed expectations early on, playing to a record of 4-2-0 with a 50.29% expected goal share. 
• Evgeni Malkin leads the Penguins with nine points in the first six games of the season. Even in the late stages of his career, he’s consistently gotten off to strong starts, and it will be interesting to see if he is able to maintain this level of dominance.   

Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins

Panthers moneyline odds	-155
Bruins moneyline odds	+130
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105)
Time	7:30 p.m. ET

• 16 years to the date that Brad Marchand made his NHL debut at TD Garden and he will play at TD Garden for the first time as a visiting skater.
• I was unsold on whether the Panthers’ 3-0-0 start to the season proved they would be overly dominant with Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk sidelined, as they bested the Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Ottawa Senators. That take has looked sharp, as they have lost four straight games in regulation and hold a goal differential of -11 in those matchups. 
• This could be a solid get-right spot for the Panthers, however, as the Bruins have also lost four straight in regulation, and David Pastrnak continues to look like the team’s only truly dynamic offensive skater. 

Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators

Ducks moneyline odds	+110
Predators moneyline odds	-130
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	8 p.m. ET

• As expected, the Ducks have taken on a more offensive minded style of play under new head coach Joel Quenneville compared to what we saw last season under Greg Cronin.
• The Ducks have still looked iffy defensively, but have generated the sixth most expected goals across all strengths this season. 
• Predators have been idle since completing a four-game road trip Saturday evening. Nashville played to a record of 20-18-3 on home ice last season. 
• Jonathan Marchessault is day-to-day after missing Saturday’s matchup with a lower-body injury. 

Los Angeles Kings vs St. Louis Blues

Kings moneyline odds	+110
Blues moneyline odds	-130
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	8 p.m. ET

• Kings enter in the midst of a four-game losing skid, but have lost two of those matchups in overtime following respectable efforts versus the Minnesota Wild and Carolina Hurricanes. 
• Anton Forsberg is expected to start in goal for Los Angeles. He holds an .880 save percentage and 3.89 GAA in his first three starts of the season. 
• Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas have combined for just five points so far this season. Kyrou is expected to skate on the team’s third line based on today’s morning skate. 

Colorado Avalanche vs Utah Mammoth

Avalanche moneyline odds	-140
Mammoth moneyline odds	+120
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• Second meeting of the season between these Central Division rivals. The Avalanche won the first meeting 2-1 in Colorado on opening night, in what was a well-contested matchup by both sides. 
• The Mammoth are 3-0 on home ice this season, and have outscored the opposition 12-6. However, those games did come versus soft opponents being the Calgary Flames, Sharks, and Bruins. 
• Nick Schmaltz leads all Mammoth skaters with nine points through six games, playing alongside Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayton on the top line, and also occupying the bumper spot on Utah’s strong power play. 
• Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, and Artturi Lehkonen have combined for 27 points, forming arguably the best line in the league thus far.