NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct. 22): Canadiens vs. Flames featured on light three-game slate

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes surrounding Wednesday’s three-game NHL slate and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best Bet – Minnesota Wild vs New Jersey Devils Over 5.5 Goals: -130 bet365

The Devils will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back Wednesday after a convincing 5-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday evening. New Jersey has been one of the NHL’s most impressive teams during its 5-1-0 start to the season, playing to a +7 goal differential against a fairly tough slate of opponents. 

Though the Wild are expected to be a better than average team in terms of goal suppression, they haven’t looked overly sharp defensively to this point prior to their last two matchups, which have come against fairly lifeless offensive sides. 

Minnesota has allowed 3.76 xGA/60 this season, and 3.29 goals against per game where it counts. Young defenders Brock Faber and Zeev Buium have combined to play 43 minutes per game so far this season, and while they have both looked solid in the offensive zone, they’ve been struggling at the other end of the ice. 

The Devils have looked extremely threatening offensively, and feature a lethal top six which should cause problems for the Wild in this matchup. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt continue to look like one of the most dynamic duos in the league, while Timo Meier, Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer form a strong second unit.

The Devils have been solid defensively, but they have been more dominant at the other end of the ice. They have allowed 3.15 xGA/60 this season, and 2.83 goals against per game. 

The Wild have struggled to score at even strength this season, which certainly factors in to oddsmakers setting a low total for this matchup. As Marco Rossi will be back in the lineup, Minnesota’s offensive core looks respectable though, and it features a defensive core that should help power better offensive results at even strength moving forward.

A goaltending matchup pitting Filip Gustavsson against Nico Daws isn’t entirely conducive to a low total either, especially given that these teams’ underlying statistics suggest they have played fairly low event hockey this season.

Gustavsson hasn’t been sharp so far this season, as he’s played to a save percentage of .899 and a GAA of 3.04. Daws was sharp in a small sample of NHL work last season, but still finished with an .893 save percentage in 34 games at the AHL level. 

 Minnesota Wild vs New Jersey Devils

Wild moneyline odds	+115
Devils moneyline odds	-135
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-130), Under 5.5 (+110)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Devils will be playing back-to-back and are likely to start Nico Daws in goal, as Jacob Markstrom remains on the IR with a lower-body injury. Given how the Devils have performed so far this season, oddsmakers look to have priced those factors in accurately.
• Marco Rossi is expected to return to Minnesota’s lineup after missing Monday’s game with a lower-body injury. Based on the morning skate, his role has been adjusted though, as he skated on the second line alongside Marcus Johansson and Vladimir Tarasenko. Rossi has put up five points in the first six games of the season. 
• If Jack Hughes is able to stay healthy, it’s not unrealistic to think that he can hang around in the Hart Trophy and Art Ross races. Hughes has racked up six goals over the last three games and nine points so far this season. His defensive play improved considerably last season under Sheldon Keefe, and he has fared well defensively in the early part of this campaign. 
• The Devils won both matchups between these sides last season. 
• The Wild rank first in the NHL with a power play success rate of 34.5%, led by Kirill Kaprizov who continues to be one of the NHL’s most effective skaters with the man advantage. Buium has also effectively quarterbacked the top unit, and has put up five points in the first seven games of the season.

 Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres

Red Wings moneyline odds	-110
Sabres moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7:37 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Sabres opened as -125 favorites in this matchup but have ticked down to -110 at the time of writing. There’s likely two causations of the movement: the market may have liked a 5-1-0 Red Wings side, while Colten Ellis has been confirmed as the Sabres’ starting goaltender.
• Ellis will be making his first career NHL start. His work in the AHL last season suggests he is worthy of the opportunity, as he held a .922 save percentage and 2.63 GAA.
• The Sabres will stick with a top line of Zach Benson, Tage Thompson, and Jiri Kulich in this matchup. Benson has distributed the puck very effectively while continuing to be an underrated forechecker in his first three games of the season, racking up six assists.
• The Red Wings have been held down by a number of aging veteran defenders over the last two seasons, but leaning more heavily into their young talents on the back end has led to better results so far this season.
• Head coach Todd McLellan has found success offering meaningful roles to young talents such as Simon Edvinsson, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, and Albert Johansson. 
• Red Wings rookie Emmitt Finnie broke out with a three-point performance on Sunday versus the Edmonton Oilers and is expected to skate on the top line once again in this matchup alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. 

 Montreal Canadiens vs Calgary Flames

Canadiens moneyline odds	-125
Flames moneyline odds	+105
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	8:37 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• While I’m not a believer that public betting statistics are a relevant data point in the current betting age, the Action Network reports that 84% of bets are on the Canadiens in this matchup. 
• It’s easy to see how the Canadiens look like a steal at -125 in this matchup, so I’ll outline the case that leads oddsmakers to believe that is a fair number, though I’m not saying I personally recommend Calgary at +105.
• The Canadiens hold an expected goal share of 48.93% at even strength this season, and have played a soft schedule. They have already gone to overtime twice versus Western Conference opponents that are expected to be in a similar cohort as the Flames (Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators). 
• The Flames played well in Monday’s matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets and were fairly unlucky to ultimately see their losing skid extended to six games. 
• Oddsmakers have more intricate models than the betting public has access to, but chances are their numbers are in agreement with the public models, which suggests that these teams are closer than their records indicate, and the Flames’ urgency level will certainly be very high as they attempt to snap a six-game losing skid on home ice.