NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct. 24): Expect plenty of goals in Capitals-Blue Jackets

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Friday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best Bet – Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets Over 6: -115 (bet365)

Friday’s matchup between the Capitals and Blue Jackets opened with a total of 6.5, and I’m pretty surprised to see that sharp money has seemingly pushed the total down to 6 at the time of writing. 

Head coach Spencer Carbery’s Capitals side has looked to be one of the most tactically dominant offensive teams in the NHL this season. They do not hold the same kind of truly elite offensive talents as other powerhouse offensive sides but do offer excellent depth and a defensive core that does an exceptional job of helping to power the attack. 

In their first seven games of the season, the Capitals lead all NHL teams in generating 4.56 xGF/60. 

What’s especially interesting about that figure is that Carbery’s team does not settle for many low-percentage shots and attempts a higher-than-average amount of seam plays through the middle of the ice, which do not track for anything in expected goals data when failed. 

Dating back to the start of last season, the Capitals rank second in the NHL in goal per game average, and their offensive process has looked even better early on this season than it did last year. 

The Blue Jackets have allowed 3.88 xGA/60 this season, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL. Many of their talented young forwards are still learning the game defensively, and their defensive core is best suited at powering offense. They have generated 3.60 xGF/60 this season, which ranks seventh in the NHL.

While the Blue Jackets appear likely to be well below average defensively once again this season, they still seem to be underrated offensively. They rank ninth in goal-per-game average dating back to last season and have a solid core of offensive talent led by Kirill Marchenko and Zach Werenski. 

Both of these teams have been playing notably high-event hockey this season, and I think the original total of 6.5 was fair. At -115, I see value in betting the game to feature over 6 goals. 

 San Jose Sharks vs New Jersey Devils

Sharks moneyline odds	+300
Devils moneyline odds	-380
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Sharks will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after earning a wild 6-5 overtime win over the New York Rangers Thursday, their first win of the season.
• Devils opened at -120 to cover the puck line, but are now priced at -140 to win by two or more. 
• The Sharks have been very shaky defensively this season, having allowed 3.85 xGA/60. While playing behind a developing side hasn’t helped, goaltender Yaraslav Askarov has struggled to an .838 save percentage and -2.8 GSAx in three starts this season. 
• The Devils have looked highly impressive during their current six-game winning streak. They have won all six games in regulation while outscoring opponents 25 to 12. 
• Jack Hughes will be a popular target for shot prop bettors this evening, as he has poured 24 shots on target over the last four games. Oddsmakers are aware of the soft matchup and recent results, though, as Hughes’ shot prop is set at 3.5 and juiced heavily (-160) to the over, after being set at +105 for four shots in the Devils’ last matchup. 
• Rookie forward Arseny Gritsyuk has looked threatening so far this season, and has been elevated up to the Devils’ second line alongside Timo Meier and Nico Hischier. 

 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres

Maple Leafs moneyline odds	-125
Sabres moneyline odds	+105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Whether or not the Leafs are able to offer a more convincing level of play will be a very interesting storyline to follow over the next several weeks. Their blue-line has not looked convincing, and the revamped bottom six has not done enough to compensate for the loss of Mitch Marner, or a slow start from Auston Matthews.
• The Sabres have won three of four games since their ugly 0-3-0 start to the season, which had many observers believing they would end up contending for Gavin McKenna. 
• Over the last four games, the Sabres hold a 53.82% expected goal share in even-strength play. 
• Anthony Stolarz (.894 SV %, -1.6 GSAx) will face off against Alex Lyon (.924 SV %, +5.1 GSAx).
• Josh Doan was an analytical darling last season, and to this point, has remained comparably dominant while playing in a more important role. Doan has put up six points in the first seven games of the season, and has also held a strong defensive impact. 
• Tage Thompson has scored just one goal this season, but has had plenty of chances, pouring 28 shots on target. Perhaps I’m biased because I outlined that he would score in Wednesday’s prop piece, but he had some strong flashes in that matchup, and feels due to break through with more production in the near future.
• The Leafs won all three matchups between these sides last season, scoring an average of five goals per game. 

Washington Capitals vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Capitals moneyline odds	-115
Blue Jackets moneyline odds	-105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Logan Thompson (.927 SV %, +3.5 GSAx) will start versus Jet Greaves (.928 SV %, +7.0 GSAx). 
• Blue Jackets went 2-1-1 in four matchups versus the Capitals last season.
• Capitals rookie Ryan Leonard has scored in two straight games, and is currently playing on the team’s top power-play unit.
• Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery has shuffled his offensive units entering this matchup, moving Hendrix Lapierre up to the second line alongside Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson, allowing a high quality third line of Aliaksei Protas, Leonard, and Justin Sourdif.
• So long as you consider the point of hockey to outscore the opponent, Dmitri Voronkov, Sean Monahan, and Kirill Marchenko have to be considered one of the best lines in the NHL. They have outscored opponents five to nothing this season, and held a +17 goal differential last season. 

Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets

Flames moneyline odds	+120
Jets moneyline odds	-140
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	8 p.m. ET

• The Flames opened as +135 underdogs, but have ticked down to +120 at the time of writing, despite looking flat offensively once again on Wednesday.
• There are a couple of factors leading to what may appear to be surprising line movement given the different results of these two teams. 
• The Jets will be playing back-to-back after suffering a 3-0 loss last night versus the Seattle Kraken.
• Winnipeg’s underlying results are quite concerning this season. It holds a 45.72% expected goal share, and has generated only 3.24 xGA/60. It looked due for offensive regression entering last night’s matchup, and obviously the game was ultimately an instance of the data having some merit. 
• The Flames arguably outplayed the Jets when these teams faced off on Monday in Calgary, but suffered a tough- luck 2-1 loss. 
• While the Flames should be able to hold their own in terms of the overall run of play in this matchup, they have had a very difficult time creating legitimate scoring opportunities this season, so it’s certainly not unrealistic that the Jets can scrape out a win while potentially being outchanced and outshot. 
• Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames’ starting goaltender. His numbers this season are far from good, but those who have watched Calgary this season would not consider his play the problem. 
• Eric Comrie will likely start in goal for the Jets. Dating back to the start of last season, Comrie has been one of the best backup goaltenders in the league, and was solid in his season debut stopping .943 percent of shots faced.