NHL Daily Betting Rundown (Oct. 27): Penguins getting too much respect vs. Blues?

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Monday’s two-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best Bet – St. Louis Blues vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Blues Moneyline -120 (bet365)

Relative to their preseason betting total of 76.5 points, the Penguins have been the greatest overachiever in the very early stage of this season, entering Monday’s matchup with a record of 6-2-1. 

Anthony Mantha and Tommy Novak have both been analytical darlings when healthy in recent years and have been quite effective so far this season. Young talents such as Ryan Shea, Ben Kindel, and Filip Hallander have also helped the team offer greater depth than was expected. Most importantly, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have formed an elite 1-2 punch down the middle, as is typically the case.

The Penguins also hold a very respectable 50.81% expected goal share.

It’s entirely possible that the Penguins will prove to be a better side than expected, but I’m still not sure they have proven enough to be priced this closely to the Blues in Monday’s matchup.

The Blues enter tonight’s matchup in the midst of a three-game losing skid, and have allowed 15 goals against in that span. Prior to the season, I wasn’t solid that their blue-line would be effective enough to allow them to be an overly dominant side, and their 4.13 goals against average suggest that take is panning out. 

Still, the Blues hold a deep offensive core with meaningful offensive punch on each of the top three units. Pittsburgh has been surprisingly competent defensively so far, but it’s too early to upgrade its defensive expectations that highly, and the Blues’ offensive depth should be able to cause some problems in this matchup.

The Blues’ underlying profile is quite solid, too. They hold an expected goal share of 53.71%, and have allowed only 2.97 xGA/60.

Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have played to a combined save percentage of just .839, the worst mark in the NHL. While it won’t be realistic for the Blues to be overly effective if they continue to receive such horrid play in net, the rest of their process looks solid, and if they start to receive better goaltending the results will come.

Hofer will start tonight’s matchup. He was respectable last season in playing to a .904 save percentage and 2.64 GAA throughout 31 appearances.

Under head coach Jim Montgomery the Blues hold a record of 38-22-8 in the regular season, and this feels like a good spot to buy-low on them versus a Penguins side off to a surprisingly strong start to the season. 

St. Louis Blues vs Pittsburgh Penguins

• Head coach Jim Montgomery has shuffled his offensive units quite consistently this season, and it will be important for prop bettors to keep an eye on the Blues’ lines at Monday’s morning skate.
• Dylan Holloway started Saturday’s matchup on the fourth line alongside Oskar Sunqvist and Nick Bjugstad, but ultimately played 18:59 and managed one assist. He was highly effective alongside Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou later on in that matchup, and I’m expecting he will skate as the left wing on the second line.
• Rickard Rakell was injured in Saturday’s matchup and will miss the next 6-8 weeks after receiving surgery. Rakell was off to a strong start with eight points in the first nine games of the year while playing on the top line alongside Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust. Filip Hallander took over Rakell’s vacated spot on the top line at yesterday’s practice. 
• Robert Thomas is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. If Thomas is unable to play, Pius Suter will likely jump into the top six, and Suter was effective when forced into a top-six role last season for the Vancouver Canucks.

Boston Bruins vs Ottawa Senators

• Bruins snapped a six-game losing skid with a 3-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche Saturday afternoon. 
• While a lack of offensive upside was expected to be the Bruins’ greatest concern this season, they have allowed 3.98 xGA/60, which likely is largely due to the fact that they don’t have the talent to carry much of the overall run of play. 
• Hampus Lindholm was placed on injured reserve Sunday and will miss this matchup.
• The Senators have won two consecutive games, and are 3-2-1 during Brady Tkachuk’s absence. 
• Shane Pinto is tied with Mark Scheifele for the league lead in goals with nine. 
• The Bruins have not confirmed a starting goaltender at the time of writing. All 32 teams will be in action Tuesday, and it is possible the Bruins will go with Joonas Korpisalo versus his former side in the front end of a back-to-back. Korpisalo holds a -3.5 GSAx and .845 save percentage in three appearances this season. 
• The Senators have confirmed that backup Leevi Merilainen will start in this matchup. Merilainen was surprisingly effective in playing to a +6.8 GSAx last season, but was torched by the Buffalo Sabres for seven goals in his lone appearance this year.