NHL DFS Plays: August 11th

Line Stacks:

Vegas 1 — Pacioretty ($7,200) – Karlsson ($5,500) – Stone ($6,700)

The Golden Knights draw the best Round 1 matchup following the Blackhawks upset of the Oilers. Of the 16 teams remaining in the NHL Playoffs, Chicago has the worst 5v5 Expected Goals Against/60, giving up the most Scoring Chances Against/60 and High-Danger Chances Against/60. They were able to beat the Oilers because Edmonton is just as bad at 5v5 but that is not the case with Vegas. The Golden Knights are first in xGF, SCF/60 and HDCF/60 and the return of Pacioretty only helps bolster their already deep roster.

Their top line should go head-to-head with the Jonathan Toews line for most of the game, a matchup they can dominate. CHI1 had a SCF% under 50.0 against a sub-par Oilers squad, so they will have a tough time with the Pacioretty-Stone duo, who were among the league’s best throughout the season.

In three regular-season matchups, the VGK1 trio combined for five goals and 34 shots–an 11.3 shot/gm average, giving them a solid-floor in a terrific matchup.

Tampa Bay 1 — Palat ($4,500) – Point ($6,100) – Kucherov ($8,000)

With Steven Stamkos still sidelined, Palat will remain on the Lightning top-line for Game 1 vs. the Blue Jackets. The trio had a solid round-robin showing, combining for two goals, four assists and 24 shots on goal vs. the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

Now they will look to get some revenge against a Columbus team that swept them a year ago. With home-ice advantage, head coach Jon Cooper will be able to keep his top line away from the Boone Jenner line, the matchup that John Tortorella will want. Even though the Blue Jackets beat the Maple Leafs, they had a tough time slowing down Toronto’s top players. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares all averaged over 30 SCF/60, so Point, Kucherov and eventually Stamkos should have no trouble generating chances in this series.

Dallas 1 — Benn ($5,100) – Hintz ($4,000) – Seguin ($5,900)

With Tyler Seguin missing the round-robin finale, it’s unclear how the Stars will line-up tonight. In Seguin’s last game, he skated with Roope Hintz and Jamie Benn, so we’re projecting that for Game 1. This line was really good in the regular season but were quiet during the round-robin.

The Stars are not a high-scoring team but the Flames are very average at 5v5 and their penalty-kill isn’t as good as their percentage suggests. Cam Talbot had a solid qualifying round but that was against a depleted Jets lineup. He’s arguably the worst goalie on tonight’s slate and DAL1 should generate enough chances to get on the score sheet. If Nikolaj Ehler was able to light up the Flames, Seguin and Hintz should be able to get free in this best-of-7.

Value Plays:

Charlie Coyle — BOS ($3,800)

The Bruins top line was extremely quiet during the round-robin but the Coyle line performed well. In a small sample size, they averaged a ridiculous 46 SCF/60. Coyle did not get on the score sheet but generating that many scoring chances vs. a team with questionable goaltending, makes Coyle a great value play. In their most recent round-robin game, Coyle was on the top power-play unit, so he gets you some exposure to BOS1 if you are fading them.

Liam Foudy — CBJ ($2,700)

Foudy’s role continued to expand in the qualifying round with John Tortorella trusting the rookie more with each passing game. He moved to the top-line at for a portion of Game 5 but it remains to be seen where he will play on Tuesday. Regardless, he’s just $2,700, will play around 17 minutes regardless and is averaging 2.3 shots per game in his last three–a 3.5 DK Point floor for a player at the near-minimum price.

Defensemen:

John Klingberg — DAL ($4,400)

Klingberg comes into Tuesday at a great price, listed as the 14th most-expensive defenseman on the slate. That’s a great price for a defenseman who has picked up nine points (2G / 7A) in his last 13 playoff games (2018 + 2019). He quarterbacks Dallas’ top power-play unit with both Benn and Seguin and their price tags leave you with a lot of salary to get creative.

Brayden McNabb — VGK ($3,300)

Shea Theodore ($6,500) is the best play with VGK1 but he’s the most expensive defenseman on the slate. If you pair him with the full line stack, it leaves you with just $4,820 Rem./Player for your five remaining players. That’s why I like McNabb for half the price. McNabb averaged nearly 20 minutes per game during the round-robin while averaging 1.0 shots and 2.3 blocked shots per game–a 4.5 DKPT/gm floor. About 35 percent of his 5v5 ice-time will come with VGK1.

Goalies:

VGK — Robin Lehner ($8,200) / Marc-Andre Fleury ($8,200)

It’s unclear which goalie will start for Vegas but it will likely be Lehner. He won both of his round-robin starts and is now 5-0-0 while stopping 134 of the 145 shots (.924 SV%) that he’s faced. Tonight he’ll face the team that traded him at the deadline. A team that he was not very happy with. Lehner is among the best goalies in the league, with the best matchup on the slate and will have plenty of motivation to play well tonight.

DAL — Ben Bishop ($7,700) / Anton Khudobin ($7,500)

Bishop missed the Stars final round-robin game but is expected to be available and start Game 1 vs. the Flames. The Stars may not be the highest-scoring team but they’re terrific defensively. Of the 16 teams remaining, Dallas had the third-lowest xGA in at 5v5. Bishop played well vs. the Flames this season, going 1-1-1 while stopping 76 of 83 shots (.916 SV%).