NHL DFS Plays: August 18th

Line Stacks

New York 1 — Lee ($6,000) – Barzal ($6,800) – Eberle ($5,700)

The Islanders can complete the sweep against the Capitals tonight and if they do, NYI1 will very likely have a hand in it. In the series, Lee-Barzal-Eberle has posted a CorsiFor% above 63 percent and ScoringChancesFor% above 61 percent.

• – Lee has scored a goal in all three games, averaging 4.0 shots and 15.5 DraftKings Points per game.
• – Barzal has not looked his best at times but you get flashes of his brilliance, like the overtime game-winning goal in Game 3. In total, he has one goal and two assists while averaging 1.7 shots and 8.7 DK Pts per game vs. Washington.
• – Eberle has been quieter than the other two but has one goal and one assist in the series. He has gone without a shot in two straight games, which is concerning. If you want to leave one out of the stack, it’s Eberle but it lowers your upside if they pop-off.

They have had their way with a mediocre 5v5 team through three games and there’s no sign that Washington will slow them down in Game 4.

Montreal 1 — Tatar ($4,700) – Suzuki ($4,400) – Gallagher ($6,100)

The Canadiens were shutout in Game 3 but Montreal’s top-line was absolutely dominant in the game, posting a 86.4 CF% and 83.3 SCF%. They’ve easily been the best line in the series and are a much better play when they have last change. When Montreal is the “home team” MTL1 will go head-to-head with the Kevin Hayes line, which is giving up 37.4 SCA/60 instead of facing the Sean Couturier line which is averaging 15.0 SCA/60.

They shuffled their power-play units a bit in Game 3, moving Tatar to PP2 but it makes Suzuki and Gallagher correlate more with Jeff Petry–who they play most of their 5v5 time with.

• – Gallagher has two assists while averaging 4.7 shots and 12.2 DK Pts/gm in the series.
• – Tatar had two goals and 21.5 DK Pts in Game 2 but was held without a shot or DK Point in Game 1 or 3.
• – Suzuki has one assist while averaging 2.0 shots and 4.7 DK Pts per/gm.

Value Plays

Joe Pavelski — DAL ($4,200)

I’m not just talking about Pavelski because he scored a hat-trick with eight shots in Game 4 but because Dallas’s second line was been great against the Flames. You could full stack them because they are so cheap but Pavelski is a strong single bullet play thanks to his exposure to the top power-play unit. In the series, he leads all Stars with 14 ScoringChances (all situations).

Alex Tuch — VGK ($4,100)

You could play any Golden Knights line and probably get a goal, they’ve been that dominant. However, Tuch carries the most value. VGK3 has been terrific in the series but Tuch is really the only one who shoots the puck on that line. He has no goals vs. Chicago but is firing an average of 3.5 shots per game, so he’s got a great floor at $4,100.

Denis Gurianov — DAL ($3,400)

If you can’t fit Pavelski into your lineup and want a piece of DAL2, Gurianov is still a really good choice. Stars fans and reporters alike have been screaming for Gurianov to get more playing time all year. It would make sense since he led the Stars in Goals/60 (2.51) during the regular season. He unleashed a bomb to score in Game 4 and now has two goals on 2.3 shots per game in the series.

Defensemen

Jeff Petry — MTL ($4,800)

Petry was moved to the PP unit next to Shea Weber in Game 3 and is a full $1,000 cheaper than Weber. After a great series vs. the Penguins, Petry has been quiet in Round 1, failing to pick up a point in three games. Still, he’s averaging 1.0 shots and 1.7 blocks per game, so there’s an OK floor. Where his value comes is from playing the majority of the game with MTL1 and on PP1, there’s plenty of upside here and his ownership should be mediocre given his recent results.

Jamie Oleksiak — DAL ($3,100)

On a team with Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen… it’s actually Oleksiak who leads the team in shots at 5v5 in this series. In the first four games, he’s averaged 25 minutes per game while picking up 13 shots (3.25 per) and four blocked shots (1.0). That works out to an average score of 10.3 DK Pts. Not bad for a $3,100 defenseman.

Goalies

Marc-Andre Fleury — VGK ($8,300)

Whether it’s Fleury or Robin Lehner, they’re both tied for the most expensive goalies on the slate at $8,300. Based on today’s pricing I found it easier to play the top goalie than in recent days. Vegas should close this series out tonight and Chicago is still averaging 24.3 shots per game, so I think you can pencil in 18.5 DK Pts into your lineup and expect a 5-1 win. They may not have the ceiling that other goalies have but they have the safest floor.

Anton Khudobin — DAL ($7,200)

With Ben Bishop “unfit to play” Khudobin has been called upon. In Game 4, Khudobin allowed four goals but faced 40 shots in the Stars come-from-behind overtime win. It was good for 20.2 DK Pts and a much-needed win for Dallas. Since the restart, he’s posted a 2.68 GAA and .907 SV% in five games but don’t forget he led the NHL in SV% during the regular season. Winning the way they did on Sunday should give the Stars a ton of confidence coming into Game 5.