The casual fan’s guide to the NHL’s Eastern Conference playoff race
This season, seven of the top 10 teams in the National Hockey League standings play in the Eastern Conference.
The threshold to make the playoffs in the East is currently at 63 points. For comparison’s sake, the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference only has 57. And 10 teams in the East have a positive goal differential, versus only six out West.
In a league typically defined by parity, the NHL’s two conferences are looking increasingly disparate. The Eastern Conference landscape has continually changed all season long, and the playoff race is far from over.
How many teams out East are truly out of the running? As it stands, there might only be one: the New York Rangers, who have already begun selling in earnest. Through 54 games, the Blueshirts are a full 14 points outside the playoff picture. It ain’t happening.
How many of these Eastern Conference teams are certified playoff locks?
But for the rest … it’s possible, if not necessarily probable. As unlikely as it may appear for the Toronto Maple Leafs or Philadelphia Flyers to make up the six-point gap between them and the eighth-place New York Islanders, it certainly isn’t unprecedented — but they’ll have to start turning things around now.
As of Thursday morning, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes occupy the top two spots in the Eastern Conference. No surprises there. But third and fourth place, respectively, are held down by the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres, who currently “boast” the two longest active playoff droughts in the entire NHL.
Conversely, the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals would both miss the playoffs outright if the season ended today. The Capitals had the most points in the East last year, and the Panthers are the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions.
With roughly 30 games to go in the 2025-26 regular season, it’s impossible to say exactly which eight teams will win out in the East — but one way or another, there’ll be deserving teams that don’t make it. If you cheer for a Western-based team, or if you just crave chaos, this playoff race will be one of the top storylines to follow during the stretch drive, and it’s just about time to pick your favorites.
The Lightning and Hurricanes are all but in. The Rangers are all but done. Here’s the casual fan’s rooting guide to the other 13 teams in the 2026 Eastern Conference playoff race.
The lovable underdogs
It’s the Buffalo Sabres. C’mon.
After starting the season in last place in the East, the Sabres have gone on a ridiculous tear that may or may not have been directly precipitated by them firing their old GM. Their official team account is posting about them going on the “winningest 23-game stretch in franchise history,” which isn’t really a thing, but we’ll let it slide. The vibes are good!
It remains to be seen exactly how new GM Jarmo Kekalainen will put his stamp on the Sabres, but it’d be cool to see them buy at this year’s trade deadline. As it stands, the Sabres have a very strong young core — it’s always just been a matter of them putting it all together. Tage Thompson might score 40 goals this year. Rasmus Dahlin is playing inspired hockey. Ryan McLeod and Mattias Samuelsson have been crazy good. And Josh Doan might end up being a parting gift for the ages from Kevyn Adams.
The Sabres haven’t played postseason hockey since 2011, or since Zach Benson was five years old. It’s been too long, and you’ll have a tough time finding many fans — even of rival teams — who don’t want to see Buffalo make it this year.
The regression candidates
There are a few of these, so we’ll go through them in rapid-fire fashion:
- The New York Islanders are Matthew Schaefer’s team, but it’s still a bit of a work in progress on Long Island. With 63 points in 53 games, the Islanders have the lowest points percentage of any Eastern Conference playoff team, and their 46.36 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 ranks 28th in the NHL. Will Ondrej Palat and Carson Soucy be enough to help them stave off challenges from other, more seasoned playoff contenders?
- Believe it or not, the Boston Bruins actually have a worse 5-on-5 expected goals percentage than the Islanders. Whenever David Pastrnak isn’t on the ice, things tend to get a lot more difficult for the B’s. After nearly landing Rasmus Andersson from the Calgary Flames, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boston attempt more major trades as the season wears on, but they just don’t have the depth to do much damage.
- The Detroit Red Wings are 10 points up on ninth place in the East, but we’ve seen this movie before. Two seasons ago, the Red Wings sat comfortably in a playoff position past the midway mark of the year before falling apart down the stretch and missing out entirely. They’ve got more of a cushion this year, but their middling underlying numbers and weak goal differential, plus a tough remaining schedule, put them at risk of tumbling downward — again.
- After challenging for first in the East earlier in the year, the Montreal Canadiens have run in place over the past few weeks and now have the worst goal differential of any playoff team in the conference. Their center depth is still a concern, even after the Philip Danault trade, and they need much more from their goaltenders. Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes have pushed so many of the right buttons, but it might be just about time for another big trade.
The late bloomers?
Fresh off ending a long playoff drought of their own, the Ottawa Senators have been among the league’s biggest underachievers this year. But it’s not due to a lack of skill, or scoring, or anything of the sort.
In Ottawa’s case, it all comes down to goaltending. The Sens have achieved strong results in every category this season, except team save percentage, where they rank dead last in the league. It’s gotten so bad that they’ve pulled 37-year-old veteran James Reimer out of his quasi-retirement to shake things up. Ottawa has now tried five different goaltenders this year, and Linus Ullmark somehow has the best save percentage among them, at .881. It’s been a mess, and yet, Ottawa is still right there in the East. All they need is the next Andrew Hammond.
The Sens have won back-to-back games, and they’re now tied in the standings with the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have won five of their last six since calling upon a veteran replacement of their own. The Rick Bowness era in Columbus has begun with a bang, or a cannon blast, with the Blue Jackets hanging eight goals on the Lightning last weekend.
Columbus has been getting solid goaltending from Jet Greaves, but Bowness’s main task has been to unlock the likes of Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Cole Sillinger. The Blue Jackets won’t go anywhere if their top draft picks don’t live up to their potential, and it certainly can’t just be Zach Werenski driving the bus. Based on the early returns, it sure looks like Bowness will keep this Columbus team competitive late into the season.
The ‘just happy to be here’
It’s crazy to think we’ve been watching Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin play NHL hockey for more than two decades. It’s even crazier to realize that we may be reaching the end. But while the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals stars may no longer be embroiled in the same heated rivalry that defined much of the 2010s, they’re still very much in the thick of the playoff race.
The Penguins and Capitals have had their time at the top of the mountain. They’ve enjoyed 20-plus years of dominance with their generational superstars. What we’re seeing now is pure gravy. Crosby has three Stanley Cup rings and two Olympic gold medals; Ovechkin has a ring of his own and is the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring king. Would it be awesome to see these two icons face off in the playoffs again (and again, and again, and again …)? Of course. But really, these two teams are just happy to be here. After all, it won’t be long until they’re forced to reckon with life after the legends.
The stalling rebuilds
Once thought to be the top contenders of tomorrow, especially after they picked No. 1 and 2 overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers have never quite reached those heights in the years since. This season, they’re both near the bottom of the East with goal differentials in the double-digit negatives, and it doesn’t seem like either is on the verge of turning it around.
The Flyers are in a very weird spot. They’re older than you might think, with Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim already pushing 30. Matvei Michkov has floundered in his first season under Rick Tocchet, and if not for Dan Vladar putting up career-best numbers, the Flyers might be right down there with the Rangers. They’ve won just two of their last 10 games.
New Jersey’s stall seems to stem more from injuries than anything else. Jack Hughes has missed significant time in four of the last five seasons, and the rest of that Devils roster just isn’t strong enough to absorb his absence — especially with Jacob Markstrom having one of the worst seasons of his career to date.
It’d be surprising to see either of these teams make much of a push, but they should both be busy in the summer.
The defending champs
If the Devils have been hampered by injuries, the Florida Panthers have been, let’s say, ravaged by them. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov have combined to play just five games this season. Tkachuk only recently returned from offseason surgery; Barkov has resumed skating but has yet to make his season debut. If and when those two are both back at full force, the Panthers should become their familiar, formidable selves once again — that is, if Sergei Bobrovsky can do better than his .874 save percentage.
Will the Panthers have enough time to rebound? The Cats would already be in a playoff spot out West, but in the East, they’re six points back of Boston, Montreal, and Buffalo. We’ve all seen how dominant the Panthers can be when they’re at their best, but we’ve also seen Stanley Cup champs fall out of contention a year later amidst a change in circumstances (see: 2015 L.A. Kings, 2007 Carolina Hurricanes). The Panthers just need way more from their depth and goaltending if they want to take a serious run at a three-peat.
The hot mess
And that brings us to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who shed the ‘lovable underdog’ label years ago and are now looking more than a little long in the tooth. It’s been a disastrous year in Toronto, where both head coach Craig Berube and GM Brad Treliving are on the hot seat.
Mitch Marner is long gone. William Nylander is injured and flipping off cameramen. Auston Matthews doesn’t quite seem to be at 100%, either. And unless the Leafs go on an all-time tank run and end up in the bottom five, they’ll be forced to hand over their own first-round pick to the hated Bruins to complete last year’s ill-fated Brandon Carlo trade.
It’s hard to fathom what Treliving thought he was getting when he gave up multiple first-rounders and prospects to acquire Carlo and Scott Laughton at last year’s trade deadline, but it’s turning into an abject disaster. Toronto’s blue line is as bad as ever, and there’s reason to believe their recent uptick in man-games lost to injury might not just be a coincidence. After nearly a decade of being on the upswing as one of the most exciting young teams in the NHL, the Leafs look to be on the verge of falling apart — and help isn’t coming.
Is it time for Toronto to tear it all down? After just two playoff series wins in the Matthews era, it’d be tough for the diehards in that city to accept a return to the dark days … but they might not have much of a choice. If they can’t turn it around this year, it might be a while before we see another playoff watch party at Maple Leaf Square. Not when they’re all the way back at Square One.
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