NHL Mailbag: What will Carlsson offer sheet fallout be for Ducks and Flyers?
As we enter the dog days of summer, it means the return of the NHL mailbag. Given the Philadelphia Flyers handed out a nuclear bomb of an offer sheet to Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks last Friday, we should expect a lot of questions surrounding that and what the fallout can be.
Let’s jump right into it.
Could we go after Fantilli if Anaheim matches?
There have been several people asking about Columbus Blue Jackets forward Adam Fantilli as a potential offer sheet option for the Flyers if all else fails. According to sources that Daily Faceoff checked in with last week, that isn’t in the cards.
There are a lot of factors that go into this, first of which (likely) being that the Flyers don’t view Fantilli as worth the same money/risk as Carlsson. With the way the Flyers structured the Carlsson contract – front loaded with the max amount of signing bonuses – it was a way to make it as difficult for the Ducks to deal with financially as possible. Fantilli isn’t worth the same money, so why would the Flyers do that? And if they offer sheet Fantilli for less money, say in the $10 million to $12 million range, is it not far more likely that Columbus would match?
As much as people don’t want to hear it, keeping good relationships with other GMs across the league is a part of this, and it doesn’t sound like the Flyers would want to make an enemy out of Don Waddell, who is considered one of the best people to deal with. Also for Flyers GM Danny Briere, going around offer sheeting anyone and everyone may be a quick way to burn bridges across the NHL; it still is somewhat of a taboo thing to do, even though it may be more common going forward.
It is also worth noting that Briere’s son, Cam Briere, is a video coach with the Jackets, which could play a factor.
Obviously, the ball is with Anaheim's ownership on whether or not to match the offer sheet for Carlsson. What is the second biggest factor? How much do you thing a GM's ego plays in this process based on your conversations with GMs?
It has been fairly public that Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek had let it be known that he would match any offer sheet thrown his way. Perhaps a little posturing, but given Verbeek’s reputation as wanting to be the toughest negotiator, ego is surely a factor in this.
Beyond that, what becomes of Cutter Gauthier’s demands may be the second biggest factor in all of this. If Carlsson stays in Anaheim as the richest player in the NHL (for at least a season), does his fellow forward who just ripped home 41 goals and 69 points ask for the same amount? Or at the very least, very close to it? Imagine a world where both Gauthier and Carlsson are owed north of $35 million in bonus money the very first of July and are both walked to unrestricted free agency on five-year terms; it may be tough for Verbeek and ownership to swallow.
And a final pressing factor may be if Carlsson has let it be known that he no longer wants to be a Duck.
What actual top 4 defenseman are still available this offseason and what would their cost be
A lot of the top-end defensemen are already off the market, so the ship may have sailed. When you see Bowen Byram getting a $12.5-million AAV, Jacob Trouba getting $8.25 million per season and Darnell Nurse’s $9.25-million yearly ticket being taken on in full by the San Jose Sharks, it should tell you how shallow the market is to land top-four rearguards.
He may not be what he once was, but Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly is still out there. The Leafs are currently over the salary cap – not accounting for forward Max Domi, who will likely be missing substantial time next season – so GM John Chayka likely isn’t looking for much to unload Rielly’s $7.5-million AAV. The full NMC does complicate things, but if Rielly greenlights a move, the cost likely won’t be astronomical.
Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen has seemingly been on the trade block for two years, and Briere has held firm on his ask of a first-round draft pick. But if the Ducks don’t match Carlsson’s offer sheet, the Flyers will need to unload salary to sign Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale; it may bring Briere’s ask for Ristolainen down a notch in order to free up some cash.
Could you see the Ducks taking the picks and using them in a trade for Dylan Larkin?
This has been a theory circulating around, but it would take Dylan Larkin expanding his destination list. We know Detroit Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman is driving a hard bargain and, if we are to believe the rumors, wants Matt Boldy included from the Minnesota Wild in a prospective deal for Larkin. If that’s the case, would draft picks alone get it done for Larkin?
It should be noted that Verbeek and Yzerman have a past working relationship together from the former’s time as an assistant GM in Detroit; perhaps that could help facilitate a deal between the two sides. But if Larkin’s relationship with Yzerman has been as frosty as it has been, would there be trepidation on the player’s part that the same type of relationship could evolve with Verbeek?
But above all else, Larkin, while a fine player, would be an incredible step down from the nine-years-younger Carlsson. It would take Larkin plus another player or two to even remotely attempt to compensate for the loss of the 2023 second-overall pick.
We all know Anaheim is matching. What do the Flyers do after that? Cant see Briere calling it a summer after taking a huge swing
If Carlsson stays in Anaheim, you don’t get As for effort as a GM, but there may not be much left to do for Briere if this valiant attempt falls short.
One thing you cannot do as a GM is throw anything and everything at the wall in the name of making a splash. The Nashville Predators were championed a few summers back when they landed forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos along with defenseman Brady Skjei in free agency; the reckless signings and subsequent mediocre seasons by the Preds might have hastened Barry Trotz’s stepping down as GM.
Brady Tkachuk didn’t make sense for the Flyers as they are stacked on the wing, and handing Darren Raddysh the contract the Leafs did wouldn’t have moved the needle much; you need to make the right moves, not the ones that get people excited.
Unfortunately, the Flyers’ best course may be standing pat and waiting for another opportunity if Carlsson doesn’t work out.
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