NHL player prop bets (Jan. 23): Good value on Necas to take advantage of a tired Blue Jackets squad
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Thursday night.
Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +110 Sports Interaction
The Carolina Hurricanes are massive -380 favourites Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who will be playing back-to-back after earn a 5-1 victory last night in Toronto thanks to some opportunistic finishing.
In their last 10 games at home, the Hurricanes have averaged 30.1 shots on goal, and it seems likely that they will carry most of the play in this matchup and push past that mark.
The Hurricanes’ third line of Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Eric Robinson looked quite strong in their back-to-back wins over the Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars this week, and was strong statistically with a 72.15% expected goal share and +1 goal differential across the two games.
The Blue Jackets’ top offensive unit and top defensive pairing have done a great job suppressing opponents’ chances, but the bottom two defensive pairs and overall depth of the team is still a concern. This game script provides a good opportunity to target Necas’ line in the prop market, as they should get highly favourable matchups, and we will likely see head coach Rod Brind’Amour roll his lines fairly evenly.
Necas is also still playing on the team’s top power-play unit, which should fare well versus a Columbus penalty kill that has allowed the 12th-highest SA/60 average this season, and succeeded just 74.6% of the time.
Necas has been trending well below his season average in terms of shots on goal recently, but his play in the last two matchups was quite noticeable, and he gets a great opportunity to continue finding his form in this spot. At +110, I believe we are getting a good price to buy-low on Necas in terms of shot volume.
Rickard Rakell Anytime Goalscorer: +210 Sports Interaction
The Pittsburgh Penguins will visit the Anaheim Ducks, who have been arguably the worst defensive side in the NHL. The Ducks’ horrid defensive play should help Rakell continue his torrid stretch of production, as he squares off against his former side.
After a slow start to the season, Rakell has quietly been on an absolute tear with 13 goals and 22 points in his last 20 games, scoring at least once in 11 of those matchups. His 1.20 point-per-game average in that span is actually a hair better than linemate Sidney Crosby’s, and he also ranks third in the NHL in goals scored during that timeframe.
Rakell missed Tuesday’s matchup for personal reasons, but he returned to practice on Wednesday and is expected to play in this matchup. The Penguins have not yet completed their morning skate, but it seems safe to assume Rakell will return to his regular role on the top line alongside Crosby and Bryan Rust, as well as the team’s top power-play unit.
While Rakell has been finishing at an unsustainably high rate, he is also getting a ton of quality scoring opportunities. Over the last 10 games, he has generated 5.62 individual expected goals from 58 shot attempts.
The Ducks have allowed 3.15 goals against per game this season, and over the last month have allowed 3.67 xGA/60.
Based on his highly productive play of late entering a highly favourable matchup, +210 looks like a good price to back Rakell to find the net Thursday.
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