Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 8): Kaprizov with a favorable matchup vs. Ducks
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL bets available on Friday night.
Connor McMichael Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 Sports Interaction) and (bonus) Washington Capitals Regulation Win (-105):
Will this be the final game of coach Mike Sullivan’s 10-year run as Penguins head coach?
While Sullivan is far from the team’s only problem, it seems the time has come for a new voice in the Penguins locker room. Pittsburgh sits 25th in the league with a record of 5-8-2, and is tied for the league’s third-worst goal differential at -17.
The eye test and analytics both agree that Sullivan’s side has been as horrible as their record and goal share suggest. The Pens have allowed 32.41 SA/60, and 3.45 xGA/60.
By no means am I expecting the Penguins to simply lie down in this matchup. Sidney Crosby and company will bring their highest compete level to this rivalry showdown, but it’s a tough back-to-back spot versus a Capitals side that has displayed a strong process in all facets of the game.
The Capitals have been full value to their 9-3-0 record. They hold a +14 goal differential, and lead the league with a 58.87% expected goal share.
Of Capitals lines that have played over 50 minutes together at even strength, the second line of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson leads the team in generating 3.86 expected goals per 60. They do a great job cycling in the offensive zone, and have been effective in transition as well.
McMichael leads the Capitals with 11.57 shots on goal per 60, and has averaged 8.8 attempts on goal over the last five games.
Connor McMichael (6'0, 180lbs) has 8 goals in 12 games for the @Capitals
Known for his speed. Also, really smart player finding soft spots in the OZ. Leads NHL in rebound chances (8) & rebound goals (3).
You don't need to be big to score goals from the paint. pic.twitter.com/Sa7vARyi69
This looks like a good spot to continue backing McMichael and the Capitals as they take on a Penguins side which has offered putrid defensive play all season long.
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points (Sports Interaction +120)
In 69 games under coach Dean Evason, Kaprizov has put up 102 points in 69 games, and in his last 50 games he’s put up two or more points 20 times.
Kaprizov has taken his play to another level this season with 24 points through 13 games, and has gone over 1.5 points in nine of 13 matchups thus far.
The Ducks provide a better than average matchup for Kaprizov to continue his absurd production. They have allowed a league-most 4.09 xGA/60, and if not for some incredible play from Lukas Dostal, would likely be sporting a record closer to that of the San Jose Sharks.
Dostal holds a .967 save % and +11.3 GSAx in 10 games played this season. Even still, the Ducks have allowed a slightly better than league average amount of goals against per game (3.00). Chances are Dostal will come down to earth to some extent, though, and if he does the Ducks will start to allow far more goals against per game.
It’s also possible Dostal will get the night off in this matchup, as he’s played 10 of 12 and four straight games. Keep your eyes out for the Ducks confirmed starter after morning skate takes place.