Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 15): Back this elite shooter to score for desperate Sabres
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Wednesday’s four-game NHL slate.
Best Bet – Tage Thompson Anytime Goal-Scorer: +140 (bet365, play to +135)
Thompson and the Buffalo Sabres are off to an 0-3 start, having managed just two goals in matchups against Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman, and Scott Wedgewood, a trio of goaltenders that has combined for a .957 save percentage and 1.15 GAA this season.
Thompson has been one of the many Sabres skaters that have finished scoring chances off at a well below average rate in matchups versus three of the hottest goaltenders in the NHL. Thompson has poured 33 attempts on goal through just three games and scored on only one of his 17 shots on target.
Historically, Thompson’s heavy one-timer, excellent wrister, and strong touch around the net have allowed him to finish scoring chances off at a better than average rate. He’s a career 13.5% shooter and scored on 18.2% of shots on target last season while netting 44 goals in 76 games.
If Thompson can generate a comparable amount of scoring chances in Wednesday’s matchup, he should have a great chance of finding the back of the net in a more favorable matchup versus Senators backup goaltender Leevi Merilainen than he did in the previous three matchups, though Merilainen was a better than average backup option last season.
Thompson could be aided by the season debut of Zach Benson, who is a highly capable distributor that will join Thompson on the top line and top power-play unit for this matchup.
This appears to be a good spot to back Thompson scoring at +140, and for bet365 users, I also see value in backing Benson to get an assist parlayed with Thompson to score at +470.
Best Bet – Mikhail Sergachev Over 0.5 Assists: +115 (bet365, play to +115)
The Mammoth will play their home opener Wednesday night and are in a great spot to send the fans home happy as they catch the Calgary Flames playing the second leg of a back-to-back with backup goaltender Devin Cooley in the crease.
Cooley holds a career save percentage of .870 at the NHL level, and he played to a .905 save percentage last season in the AHL before posting an .846 save percentage in three appearances during the preseason. The Flames have allowed 3.35 xGA/60 and 29.64 SA/60 this season and have allowed 4.00 goals against per game despite solid play from number-one goaltender Dustin Wolf.
The Mammoth’s team total is set at 3.5 (over -120) in this matchup, and I’m high on the chances that they tally four or more.
There are a lot of tempting props involving the Mammoth’s top skaters in this matchup, but I’m highest on a price of +115 for their top puck-moving defenseman, Sergachev, to record an assist. Sergachev will quarterback Utah’s top power-play unit, which clicked 23.6% of the time last season.
Sergachev graded out as one of the NHL’s better offensive defensemen last season, finishing with a +16.5 expected goals above replacement rating due to his excellent offensive play-driving. He also recorded 53 points and 38 assists in 77 games.
Though it is a highly favorable game script, head coach Andre Tourigny will likely lean on his top defensive pairing quite heavily with Sean Durzi sidelined due to injury.
Taking Sergachev to record a point (-125) is a perfectly reasonable option, but I believe the disparity between assist and point is wide enough that backing him to record an assist holds more value.
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