Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 18): Hurricanes’ top line to thrive vs. Penguins

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Friday night.

Andrei Svechnikov Anytime Goalscorer: +230 (Sports Interaction), Over 0.5 Points -161 (Sports Interaction)

The Hurricanes were a trendy pick to regress entering the season among mainstream NHL media after losing a number of key pieces from the roster this summer. Oddsmakers are less sure Carolina’s run of regular season dominance will come to an end; they tabbed Rod Brind’Amour’s group with a betting total of 100.5 points.

I side with oddsmakers in believing that Carolina will safely be a playoff team once again, and one reason why is my belief that we will see a more productive campaign from Svechnikov as he takes on a heightened role.

Svechnikov put up just 19 goals and 52 points in 59 games in 2023-24, but his skillset suggests there is plenty of room for growth.

Svechnikov has looked excellent in the Hurricanes’ opening two matchups skating alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis at even strength. In 21.3 minutes together, that trio has generated 6.77 xG/60, which is the highest mark in the NHL among units that hold a sample of 20 minutes or longer.

Svechnikov has managed 16 attempts on goal this season, and is not someone that will miss chances at a below average rate (11.7% career shooting percentage).

The Penguins’ rush defense has looked suspect in the early going once again, and their in-zone coverage hasn’t looked great either. Both of those flaws have contributed to their goals-against average of 4.20. The analytics match the eye test, as Pittsburgh has allowed 3.78 xGA/60, which is the seventh-worst mark in the NHL this season.

Part of the Penguins’ ugly goals against average has come down to the dreadful play of Tristan Jarry, who will likely serve as backup Friday in favor of Joel Blomqvist, who has looked surprisingly sharp in posting a .913 save % in three appearances this season.

Svechnikov is a player worth buying in fantasy and betting markets early on this season, and the Penguins provide him with a better than average matchup to be productive.

Gabriel Vilardi Over 0.5 Points -143 (Sports Interaction)

Mark Scheifele has had a dominant start to the season with six points in three games. Kyle Connor has been true to form with two goals and three points. What’s surprising hearing those two numbers is that Gabriel Vilardi has just one point despite playing alongside those two at even strength, and is also on the Jets’ top power-play unit.

Vilardi had 34 points 41 games in the second half of the 2023-24 season, and should produce at a similar rate this year if he continues to hold down a spot on the Jets’ top line and top power-play unit.

The Sharks look well on their way to being the league’s worst team once again after managing only 47 points last season. They allowed 3.98 goals against per game in 2023-24, and have allowed a league-worst 4.31 xGF/60 in their opening four matchups this season.

Backing Vilardi at -150 or better to record a point looks like a good way to tap-in to the idea that we should see another productive night from the Jets’ top line.

Mason McTavish Over 0.5 Points +120 (Sports Interaction)

Is it time to panic in Colorado? Through four games, the Avalanche are yet to record a win, and have allowed 6.25 goals against per game.

The Avs are playing without one of the league’s very best defenders in Devon Toews, and his return will provide a huge boost to the back-end. Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette has confirmed that Toews will not return tonight, however.

Toews’ absence likely means another night of Oliver Kylington on the top pairing, which is a positive note for the Ducks’ talented young offensive core.

The Avalanche have not announced if it will be Justus Annunen or Alexandar Georgiev getting this start, but both have struggled badly out of the gates in posting a combined .776 save % this season.

Relative to oddsmakers’ expectations, I’m quite high on the Ducks this season and feel they have the talent to finish in the league’s upper half in terms of offensive production.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Ducks much chance in this specific matchup, as they are heavy underdogs at +200, and all of their top forwards are priced at longer than 2-1 to record a point.

Due to his +120 price tag, McTavish is my favorite Ducks skater to back in this enticing matchup. McTavish, Trevor Zegras, and Robby Fabbri have generated 4.24 xG/60 in 32.6 minutes together this season. That unit should get some favorable matchups considering the Avalanche’s current lack of depth.

McTavish also skates on the Ducks’ top power-play unit, which could be productive in Friday’s game as the Avs’ penalty kill holds a success rate of just 54.6%.