Best NHL Player Prop Bets (Oct. 20): Back this Dustin Wolf prop at plus money

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s five-game NHL slate.

Best Bet – Dustin Wolf Under 2.5 Goals Allowed: +115 (Sports Interaction, Play to +105)

The Calgary Flames have scored only 1.67 goals per game this season and rank last in the NHL with just two points through five games, and they also rank last in goal differential (-14). While none of those statistics are overly surprising, they have also been surprisingly awful at keeping the puck out of their own net, allowing 4.67 goals against per game.

Head coach Ryan Huska’s side will be desperate to bounce back defensively after a treacherous showing in Vegas on Saturday night. And while I’m low on the Flames this year, they did typically exhibit respectable defensive structure last season, limiting back-breaking mistakes to allow Dustin Wolf to steal games.

Five of Calgary’s six matchups have come versus opponents that figure to produce offense at a better than average rate this season. It allowed only 2.88 goals against per game last season, and should be capable of better defensive play moving forward, which I believe will be the team’s main focus in what will likely be a tight-checking matchup against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday.

The Jets have generated only 2.01 xGF/60 in five-on-five play this season, which is the lowest mark of any team in the league. I’m not going to try to argue that they are actually a below-average side offensively, but they offer a solid matchup for a Flames side that will be eager to play a much better defensive game in front of Wolf.

I don’t hate the idea of simply backing the Flames to win at +125 in this matchup, but at +115, I see more value in betting Wolf to allow less than 2.5 goals against, given the fact that it’s realistic Wolf can allow less than 2.5 goals in a losing effort given that empty-net goals will not count towards our bet.

Best Bet – Nikolaj Ehlers Over 0.5 Points: -118 (Sports Interaction, Play to -125)

The Carolina Hurricanes’ top line of Ehlers, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis has looked quite good, generating 4.04 xGF/60 while outscoring opponents 4-3 where it counts. While Aho and Jarvis have combined for 15 points this season, Ehlers somehow has yet to record a point.

While Ehlers has not played as well offensively as his linemates, he’s certainly not been as horrible as his pointless stat line suggests. There have been two instances where Ehlers’ forechecking directly cause a turnover and a goal for, but he did not get a touch to earn a point. If third assists were a thing, he would also have two at this point.

While Ehlers has been unlucky not to have registered an assist given that his play in the offensive zone has directly helped cause some of Carolina’s goals, he’s also had plenty of chances to score himself. Ehlers has poured 18 shots on goal and generated 1.84 expected goals.

Considering the way the Hurricanes’ top line is performing and Ehlers’ production historically, he’s bound to start bouncing back offensively in the near future. The Vegas Golden Knights do provide a tougher than average matchup for production, but I’m happy to buy low on Ehlers offensively given that the price for him to a record a point has ticked all the way up to -118.

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