Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 30): Point to stay hot vs. Avs
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Wednesday night.
Kirill Marchenko Over 0.5 Points: -139 Sports Interaction
It was pretty clear that former Blue Jackets bench boss Pascal Vincent did not manage his higher-end offensive talents well last season, and was not necessarily the sharpest offensive mind.
There was little consistency with regards to his lines at even strength, and some of the team’s younger offensive talents was misused. Among those was Marchenko, who averaged only 16:49 of ice time and rarely received consistent usage.
Blue Jackets coach Dean Evason gave Marchenko a chance on the top line alongside Sean Monahan and Yegor Chinakhov, and that trio has given him little reason to consider shaking things up. They have combined for 28 points in the opening eight games.
Among units to play over 50 minutes together at even strength, that top unit holds a 74.1% expected goal share and has generated 3.66 xGF/60. The three are shooting close to 20%, so some regression is on the horizon, but they are generating enough looks to look past that concern.
While the Blue Jackets are likely to come down to earth to some extent, one interesting thought to consider is that they have actually played a fairly tough schedule to this point, and this trio has still been entirely dominant.
The Blue Jackets catch the Islanders in a favorable spot here, as they will be playing night two of a traveling back-to-back. They will be a popular moneyline bet given their +115 price tag and 4-3-1 record, and I can’t disagree.
Dylan Larkin Anytime Goalscorer: +185 Sports Interaction/Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +110
After opening in the +110 range at most sportsbooks, the Red Wings are now fairly large underdogs at +125 in this game. The consensus take seems to be that the 8-1-0 Jets can get right in a matchup versus a Red Wings side that has looked highly unconvincing.
I actually believe that the Red Wings’ chances of managing some offense, as well as potentially stealing this game, are being underrated.
The Jets have played only three matchups against teams that are likely to make the playoffs this season, and one was the Oilers, who have not been true to form.
In their last four games, the Jets have allowed 31.41 shot attempts per 60, and held an expected goal share of 45%. Looking away from the data, their play has looked fairly average in that span.
The Jets’ top unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi has been highly productive, but is still not an effective top line on the defensive side of the puck.
Larkin leads the Red Wings with 4.1 expected goals, and has attempted 17.42 shots per hour. He looks likely to remain alongside Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat on a very talented top line in this matchup, and this looks like a sneaky good spot for them to do some damage.
Brayden Point Over 1 Point: -105 BetVictor
Point enters this matchup off of one of the more impressive individual performances of the year. One goal and one assist undersold his overall body of work in that matchup. As someone who was dumb enough to bet the Preds, every single time he touched the puck I was in fear.
Brayden Point. Nasty pic.twitter.com/DeAbY2a0vL
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 29, 2024The Lightning’s top line has been spectacular all season long, as Jake Guentzel is fitting in as expected. They get an excellent matchup to remain productive tonight in a game which figures to be a shootout versus the Avs. This game has the highest total on the board (6.5 at -115), which makes sense.
The Avalanche have allowed 4.10 goals against per game this season. Their defensive play has improved with Devon Toews back in the lineup, but with so many key NHL bodies out of the lineup, it’s still likely to remain below average in the near future.
Even more concerning for the Avs has been the .886 save % their goaltending tandem holds. As Alexandar Georgiev has struggled mightily, the team has opted to recall Kaapo Kahkonen from the AHL to start in this game. Kahkonen played to an .898 save % last season, and holds a career save % of .899 at the NHL level.
Bonus – Spencer Carbery to Win the Jack Adams: +1000 Sports Interaction
I outlined this bet in the summer, as well as on the Puck Portfolio last Wednesday, and it continues to be a play I’m quite high on. While it’s down to +1000, I still think there is value adding it today at this number.
The Capitals’ 6-2-0 start looks legitimate. They have already beaten four elite teams, and hold a league-leading 62.71% expected goal share. Tremendous coaching from Spencer Carbery has clearly been a big part of the story, as they have offered some of the league’s most organized play in all three zones.
Carbery has drawn tremendous play from Pierre-Luc Dubois, who looks fully bought in and has been strong in all three zones. The same can be said for other newcomers like Andrew Mangiapane, Jakub Vrana and Jakob Chychrun. That should help build Carbery’s case in this market.
As the Caps’ sample of solid play becomes larger, the price to back Carbery in this market will continue to plummet. Aside from a potential injury to Chychrun, there aren’t many arguments why they will fall off anytime soon.
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