Best NHL Player Prop Bets (Oct. 22): Back these two players to score on Wednesday
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Wednesday’s three-game NHL slate.
Best Bet – Tage Thompson Anytime Goalscorer: +145 (bet365, play to +135)
Thompson enters what is expected to be a fairly high-event matchup versus the Detroit Red Wings having scored just one goal so far this season. We’ve already been burned once betting Thompson to score in these articles this season, but I’m happy to target Thompson once again considering today’s price.
Thompson has generated 2.81 expected goals this season, and already poured 54 attempts on target. Thompson is an elite shooter, who scored on 18.2% of opportunities last season, and 13.2% of opportunities in his career. A 4.5% shooting percentage won’t hold up for long.
And though it’s not yet led to production for Thompson, his role alongside Zach Benson on the Sabres’ top line should help provide plenty of scoring opportunities. Thompson, Benson, and Jiri Kulich hold a 60% expected goal share and have generated 3.45 xGF/60 this season, and Benson’s strong play-making ability has been on full display as he’s racked up six assists in his first three games of the campaign.
For what it’s worth Thompson has also fared very well versus the Red Wings historically, as he’s scored five goals in his past six matchups versus Detroit and 12 goals in his last 18 games versus the Red Wings.
Best Bet – Joel Farabee Anytime Goalscorer: +340 (Sports Interaction, play to +315)
Thompson will undoubtedly be among the most popular anytime goalscorer bets tonight, given the matchup and the amount of chances he’s creating. Our second goalscorer pick in Farabee will certainly be drastically less popular, but I’m not sure it should be.
Nobody expected the Flames to finish scoring chances off at a better-than-average rate this season, but a league-worst 6.21% shooting percentage is still entirely unsustainable. Calgary has generated just 2.94 xGF/60 so far, but it has played five straight matchups versus teams favored to make the playoffs this season.
The Canadiens have allowed 3.24 xGA/60 this season, which is the highest mark of any team that the Flames have faced so far.
Out of the many Flames skaters that have been snake-bitten in front of goal, Farabee may be among the most due to see one finally go in the net. He’s looked dangerous over the last three games while generating nine shots on target, and has fared well playing alongside Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau on the top line.
Farabee, Huberdeau, and Kadri have played to an eye-popping 81.3% expected goal share this season, albeit in a tiny sample of 21 minutes. Huberdeau’s absence has been part of the reason the Flames’ offensive play has been particularly lethargic, and he’s looked solid since returning to the lineup.
If Farabee remains alongside Huberdeau and Kadri on the top line in tonight’s matchup, he will have a great opportunity to finally record his first of the season, and at +340, I believe we are getting good price to back a top-line skater in a solid matchup for production.
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