2021-22: NHL Player Props To Consider
The regular season is almost here! That means you only have a little bit more time to get in on some season-long player props. There are a bunch of very interesting lines when it comes to both goal and point production and I scoured the internet to find the best lines out there.
Even if you aren’t a bettor, it’s always fun to see what the sportsbooks are thinking some of the best players in the NHL might be capable of producing.
Honestly, I didn’t highlight any unders in this article because straight-up: unders are boring. No one wants to root for a guy to not score. I love offence and there is no shortage of electric offensive producers in the NHL right now. The danger here is obviously player health though. If a guy suffers a significant injury at any point in the season, it could absolutely kill their chances of hitting the over. Season-long player props can be risky, but I think there are some very interesting spots to take a look at.
NATHAN MACKINNON – 90.5 POINTS
My jaw hit the floor when I saw this line set to where it was. If you pro-rate MacKinnon’s last four seasons to full 82 game campaigns, he would have produced 111, 110, 99, and 107 points. The fact that this line is set at just 90.5 is insane.
Now like I said off the top, the danger with season-long player props like this is that if the player goes down with any sort of significant injury, your bet is likely toast. However, with this one, I think MacKinnon could hit the 91 point mark even if he only plays 70 games. The math all points to the NHL’s second-best player hitting the 100 point mark this season and easily covering this total.
CONNOR MCDAVID – 128.5 POINTS
Last season McDavid put up 105 points in just 56 games. Could he get 24 more points in 26 more games? Easily. Now, he won’t have the luxury of lighting up the Ottawa Senators nine times like he did last season when he scored 22 points in those nine games but still, the Pacific Division isn’t very good and McDavid should still have plenty of big nights.
To hit this over, he would need to average 1.57 points per game. Well, in the last three seasons his PPG has been 1.60. I get why the line is set to where it is, but I still think McDavid covers this one.
ANDERS LEE – 38.5 POINTS
Lee is not on the same superstar level that the first two players I listed are, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in this bet. Lee is getting ready for his eighth full season in the league and is also coming off a significant leg injury that cost him the last half of the 2020-21 campaign and the playoffs. There should be no shortage of motivation for him heading into this season.
Since his first full season back in 2014-15, he’s only missed the 40-point mark twice. Once back in 2015-16 when he scored 36 points in 80 games and then last season when he had 19 points in 27 games and let’s be honest, he might have hit the 40-point mark if he was healthy.
So really if Lee simply produces at his career average mark, he’ll cover this number easily.
TYLER TOFFOLI – 42.5 POINTS
I mean, we’re talking about the same player who just scored 28 goals and added 16 assists in a shortened season. The guy scored 44 points in 56 games and I have a hard time believing we’ll see his point total duck below 42.5 this upcoming season.
He’s actually hit this mark in back-to-back seasons, despite not playing more than 68 games in either of them. If you look at his eight-year career, he’s covered this number five times!
I know the Habs added Mike Hoffman, but I don’t think that’s going to hurt Toffoli’s point output for this season. 42.5 just seems way too low for me.
TAYLOR HALL – 13.5 GOALS
Put this one in the same category as the Nathan MacKinnon line. I couldn’t believe it when I saw it. Yes, Hall is coming off a bit of a down year but, it’s pretty easy to see that the only reason his numbers dipped is because he got off to a slow start with the Buffalo Sabres and shot a measly 2.7%. When he got to Boston, he ended up scoring eight goals in 16 games.
In a shortened season, where he spent the majority of it with the basement-dwelling Sabres, Hall still scored ten goals. He should easily pop home 14 goals in a full season with the Boston Bruins, where he will likely get a lot of power-play time alongside Boston’s ‘Perfection Line’. I love the over here as well.
DAVID PASTRNAK – 35.5 GOALS
I’m sticking with the Boston Bruins for another pick here.
Last season was the first time since 2015-16 that Pastrnak did not score at a 35+plus goal pace. He ended up with 20 in 48 games, which works out to around 34 over an 82-game season. I like his chances of hitting covering the over here though. He’s still the main trigger man on one of the most dangerous lines in hockey and he plays a prominent role on a power play that has finished top ten in the league in three consecutive seasons.
I would have taken this bet if the line was at 39.5, so this one is an easy choice for me.
