Best NHL prop bets (Dec. 4): Good value on red-hot Terry to record a point

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Wednesday night.

Boston Bruins Under 2.5 Goals: +130 Sports Interaction

The Bruins have scored just 2.48 goals per game this season, and their chances of putting together a solid offensive output Wednesday look to be overvalued.

While the Bruins are 5-2-0 under new head coach Joe Sacco, their offensive play still looks pretty concerning. They have averaged 2.71 goals per game under Sacco, but that mark has come against a soft schedule and been aided by six-goal outputs versus the Canadiens and Islanders; they have still gone under 2.5 goals in five of seven games since Sacco was appointed as head coach.

Aside from David Pastrnak there is a distinct lack of truly dynamic offensive talent on the Bruins roster. They own the league’s second worst power play, and rank 22nd in xGF/60 at even strength this season. This is also a favorable spot for the Blackhawks, as the Bruins will be playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back.

At their best, the Blackhawks have shown solid defensive structure and their greatest concern is an inability to generate offense. The Blackhawks have allowed 3.12 goals against per game this season, which ranks near the middle of the league. They have allowed 2.55 xGA/60 in even strength play, which is the 15th-best mark in the NHL.

With the Bruins averaging just 2.49 goals per game this season and the Blackhawks allowing a league average amount of goals against, I see value at a price of +130 for Boston to stay under 2.5 goals in this spot.

Troy Terry to Record a Point: -133 Sports Interaction

Anaheim’s second line of Terry, Frank Vatrano, and Ryan Strome has been racking up points of late, and is generating chances at a rate which suggests they will continue to be highly productive. Over the last four games, the three have combined for 15 points.

In 155.5 minutes together at even strength, Terry, Vatrano, and Strome have generated 3.97 xG/60, which is the highest mark in the league among any combination to play over 150 minutes together.

The Knights played a defensive gem last night versus the Oilers and Adin Hill played fantastic, but we may not see a repeat performance in this outing. Over the last 10 games, the Knights have allowed 3.24 xGA/60, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL. Ilya Samsonov has struggled mightily of late, and now holds a save percentage of just .892 this season and a 3.40 GAA.

Leo Carlsson is set to miss this matchup once again, which could mean more minutes for Terry’s line. Terry played a season-high 22:34 Sunday versus Ottawa, and tallied three assists as well as nine shots on goal. He has points in four straight games heading into this matchup.

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