Best NHL prop bets (Nov. 12): Don’t expect too many early goals in the Shesterkin-Hellebuyck battle

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Tuesday night.

Jets vs. Rangers First Period Under 1.5 Goals: +100 Sports Interaction

Two Stanley Cup favorites will go head-to-head Tuesday as the Rangers host the Jets at MSG. With a win, the Jets would become the fastest team in NHL history to reach the 30-point mark.

Though they enter this matchup with nine regulation wins in only 13 matchups, the Rangers’ defensive play has been far from convincing. They have allowed 3.82 xGA/60, which is the third-highest mark in hockey. They are also allowing 31.61 shots against per 60.

Stronger defensive play has been a big talking point around the Rangers organization of late, even if they aren’t allowing many goals against where it counts. Last season, they allowed only 2.76 goals per game, and limited opponents to 3.10 xGA/60.

Aging veterans such as Mika Zibanejad and Jacob Trouba are struggling in even-strength play, but the prior results of New York’s roster still suggest the team has more to give from a defensive perspective.

While the Jets rank first in goals scored this season, they appear to be due for significant offensive regression. They lead the league in shooting percentage, but have generated just 3.20 xGF/60.

For two seasons, it’s been next to impossible to put up significant offensive totals against Hellebuyck and the Jets though. Winnipeg allowed only 2.41 goals against per game last year, and the Jets are off to a comparable start this season.

These teams have played fairly high-event hockey to this point, but that is well accounted for by a total of six in this matchup.

If it is the Vezina Trophy favorites in Hellebuyck and Shesterkin squaring off in this matchup, I believe the chances of a more low-scoring affair are being underrated by oddsmakers. At -105 or better, I see value backing the first period to go under 1.5 total goals.

Jesper Bratt Anytime Goalscorer: +230 Sports Interaction

The duo of Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt has looked extremely dangerous of late, and should continue to be a handful for opposing teams to keep in check.

While Bratt is more of a playmaker who is geared towards passing up low quality chances, he is still generating a ton of quality shots on target. Playing with Jack Hughes certainly doesn’t hurt. Over the last five games, he has generated 4.52 individual expected goals, and poured 19 shots on goal.

Over the entirety of the season, Bratt ranks fifth in the NHL in expected goals with 8.3. He is a quality finisher, with a career shooting percentage of 12.2.

Among units that have played 100 or more minutes together at even strength this season, Hughes, Bratt, and Ondrej Palat rank eighth in the NHL in xGF/60. That’s not surprising to anybody who has watched the dynamic play of Bratt and Hughes recently, and they also drive one of the league’s better power plays (28.3% success rate).

The Panthers proved they are a true defensive powerhouse last season, but have been somewhat less dominant this year after a significant amount of roster turnover. They have allowed 3.07 goals against where it counts (13th in NHL), and rank eighth in xGA/60.

The Devils will also catch a break as the Panthers are set to start backup Spencer Knight in this matchup. Knight has had a strong start to the season and could prove to be a better-than-average backup, but he’s still not Sergei Bobrovsky.