NHL Stanley Cup Final betting preview, best series bets: Oilers small favorites over Panthers
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the highly anticipated Stanley Cup Final rematch between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers.
Oilers vs. Panthers Series Odds
- Oilers to win series: -125
- Panthers to win series: +105
- Series Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+165), Panthers -1.5 (+170)
- Amount of games in series total: 5.5 (Over -238, Under +175)
Game odds via Sports Interaction. Get Daily Faceoff’s Sports Interaction bonus code here!
| Regular Season Stats | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5) | 2.48 (14th) | 2.32 (22nd) |
| Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.52 (22nd) | 2.09 (4th) |
| Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.88 (2nd) | 2.76 (6th) |
| Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.43 (11th) | 2.44 (2nd) |
| High-Danger Scoring Chances % (5-on-5) | 55.81 (1st) | 53.16 (7th) |
| Goal Differential | +23 (11th) | +29 (10th) |
| Power Play % | 23.7% (12th) | 23.5% (13th) |
| Penalty Kill % | 78.2% (16th) | 80.7% (4th) |
| Save Percentage (Stuart Skinner vs Sergei Bobrovsky) | .896 | .906 |
| Goals Saved Above Expectation (Skinner vs Bobrovsky) | -1.5 | +7.2 |
There is no sugarcoating it: this year’s NHL Conference Finals were a bust. Neither series was overly exciting as the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers both cruised to five-game victories, with seven of their eight combined wins featuring winning margins of three or more goals.
The Stanley Cup Final appears poised to make up for a disappointing third round and then some, though.
The Oilers and Panthers are, without question, the two teams most deserving of representing their respective conferences in the final. There are several arguments that suggest both teams are even more formidable sides than they were last postseason, when hockey fans were treated to an excellent seven-game series.
Wayne Gretzky earned his first Stanley Cup championship in a Cup Final rematch versus the New York Islanders, Sidney Crosby won his first ring in a rematch versus the Detroit Red Wings, and now Connor McDavid has the chance to follow the same script and cement his legacy as one of the all-time greats.
Edmonton Oilers
For a variety of reasons, Edmonton appears to be entering this rematch in a much better place than last season, which is likely why sharp money has poured in on the Oilers since the markets opened with the Panthers as a slight betting favorite.
While Zach Hyman’s absence hurts a lot, the Oilers still appear to be a much deeper and healthier side than we saw in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final.
Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane were both dealing with significant injuries throughout last year’s final, and while surely many Oilers are still dealing with some nagging injuries right now, the Oilers’ injury situation still seems better than it was last year, even with Hyman out for the series.
The Oilers’ reputation for having a weak defensive core in previous postseasons during the McDavid era, coupled with their horrific showing in the first two games of the postseason versus the Los Angeles Kings, seems to be hindering some observers from seeing just how good their defensive core has been from top to bottom.
Even prior to Mattias Ekholm’s return to the lineup in Game 5 versus the Stars, the Oilers had been receiving solid play from all six defenders, led by dominant play-driving from Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman.
The Oilers led the league in controlled defensive zone exit percentage this season, a strength that could be critical versus a Panthers side that is excellent at forcing turnovers in the defensive zone.
Troy Stecher had been an effective bottom-pair defender this postseason but was a healthy scratch in Game 5 due to Ekholm’s return to the lineup. Having seven playable defenders could prove critical for the Oilers, entering a series with a Panthers team known for wearing down the opposition in the postseason.
The Oilers’ bottom six has been much more effective this postseason, which is in part a testament to how well the entire defensive core has been able to exit the zone and help drive play in the right direction.
The analytics reflect how much more sound the Oilers’ game has been from top to bottom, as they enter this series with the highest expected goal share of all teams this postseason.
Edmonton took just 16 games to reach the final this postseason compared to last year’s mark of 18 and has not relied nearly as much on McDavid and Draisaitl to steal games, and the Oilers’ dynamic duo should be more prepared to take on a hefty workload compared to last year.
Stuart Skinner was razor-sharp versus the Stars, finishing the series with a .924 save percentage and 2.01 GAA. His potential level of play is arguably still the greatest question mark on the Oilers roster, but he should be entering this series with plenty of confidence.
Florida Panthers
Florida offers a much different style of play than the Oilers, and than any of the three teams that Edmonton has faced to this point.
The Panthers have continued to chip pucks in at the offensive blue line at a higher rate than any other team this postseason, aiming to avoid costly turnovers at the blue line and award themselves opportunities to enforce themselves physically on opposing defenders.
If the Oilers defensive core can continue to handle retrievals as effectively as they did in the first three rounds, it will provide an edge that will greatly hinder the Panthers’ ability to create high-danger scoring chances.
The Toronto Maple Leafs defence core is compiled mainly of skaters who are best at defending inside the defensive zone but are not overly strong at beating the forecheck with strong puck movement.
With Sean Walker and Jalen Chatfield injured, the Hurricanes also struggled to manage the puck down low in the defensive zone, and the Panthers scored plenty of goals immediately following turnovers in the Eastern Conference Final.
The Panthers’ forecheck will provide the toughest test the Oilers’ defensive core has seen this postseason, but Florida also has not faced a defensive core that can move the puck as effectively from top to bottom as the Oilers.
Similar to the Oilers, as well as the majority of teams that manage to last until the Stanley Cup Final, the Panthers’ bottom six has been extremely effective this postseason. Their third line of Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell has outscored opponents 10 to two this postseason, and their fourth line of AJ Greer, Tomas Nosek, and Jonah Gadjovich has outscored opponents four to nothing.
Since his shaky start to the series in Round 2 versus the Maple Leafs, Bobrovsky has been incredible and now holds a +8.5 GSAx and .912 save percentage this postseason.
The Panthers rank third in expected goal share this postseason, and rank second in xGA/60.
Best bets for Oilers vs Panthers
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 Games: +165 at Sports Interaction
The Oilers appear to be in a better place mentally entering this series compared to last year, and it seems likely that they will exhibit a much sharper overall game early on than they did in 2024 when they fell into an insurmountable three-game deficit.
Edmonton has offered well-structured team play this postseason and is no longer a team reliant on an elite power play and absurd production from McDavid and Draisaitl in order to find success.
If the Oilers’ overall team game is to regress compared to the rest of the postseason and they do not control as much of the overall run of play as in the first three rounds, McDavid and Draisaitl could easily help the Oilers steal a few seemingly underserved victories.
At +165, there looks to be value in backing the Oilers to win in six games or less, as a team led by one of the greatest players of all time appears poised to break through.
Conn Smythe Trophy:
In 2024, McDavid entered the Stanley Cup Final priced at +190 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, despite being three points ahead of Draisaitl for the team lead, and 12 points ahead of any Panthers skater.
Ahead of this year’s series, McDavid has tallied only one point more than Draisaitl and nine points more than Aleksander Barkov. Yet McDavid is priced at +100 to repeat as the Conn Smythe winner, which is partly due to the fact that the Oilers are not a betting underdog this time around and also likely due to oddsmakers’ increased awareness that he may still win the award if the Oilers lose the series.
While I loved McDavid to win the Conn Smythe entering the series at +190 last season, it does not appear to be worth a bet entering this year’s matchup.
Draisaitl (+800) is only one point back and has been highly effective defensively in matchups versus the opposition’s top offensive units. He could easily steal the award if he matches McDavid’s production in the series, which is not overly unlikely.
Barkov (+500) will rightfully receive plenty of credit if he is able to shut down McDavid with his tremendous defensive play, and he does lead the team in points. However, McDavid generated 11 points in last year’s series, and I’m not sold that Barkov will fare overly well in his minutes versus the Oilers’ top skaters in this series.
Given my belief that McDavid and the Oilers are going to win the series, I’m not exactly keen to bet on any Panthers to win the Conn Smythe. Backing the Panthers’ betting favorite, Bobrovsky at +250, would be my first choice, though, as I’m convinced the Oilers are going to be able to continue generating plenty of offensive chances in this series and that it will take a dominant showing from Bobrovsky for Florida to win.
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