NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs betting preview: outright odds, series prices, predictions
The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs begin on Saturday, and that means it’s time to lock in those playoff wagers before the action gets started.
Luckily for you, Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin is here to offer up his expert analysis and picks for the postseason. He’s been successfully handicapping NHL games all season long, but he’s saving his best picks and betting predictions for the stretch run.
Join us for a look at the Stanley Cup outright odds now that the playoff field is set, first-round series prices, and the Conn Smythe odds for playoff MVP. All odds are courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Stanley Cup outright odds
| Team | Stanley Cup Outright Odds |
| Dallas Stars | +750 |
| Florida Panthers | +750 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +775 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +800 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +850 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +850 |
| Washington Capitals | +950 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +1000 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +1100 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1200 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +2000 |
| Ottawa Senators | +3500 |
| Minnesota Wild | +4000 |
| New Jersey Devils | +4000 |
| St. Louis Blues | +4000 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +8000 |
Considering that they have arguably the softest bracket of any of the true contenders, the Hurricanes seem to be flying a little under the radar entering this postseason. That may be due to the fact that they have entered the playoffs as one of the favorites several times in recent years, and have not lived up to expectations.
On many occasions we have learned that it can take some postseason failures before teams finally break through, as their likely second-round opponent, the Washington Capitals, proved in 2017-18 when they finally made a deep run.
The Hurricanes feature one of the league’s deepest lineups and have displayed well-balanced play in all facets of the game this season. Over the last 20 games, they rank third in expected goal share.
While they have always been dominant defensively under head coach Rod Brind’Amour, they have scored 3.39 goals per game since the trade deadline, bolstered by strong play from newcomers Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven.
Goaltender Frederik Andersen has been excellent since returning to the lineup with a +12.0 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage, and the Hurricanes would have managed a much better record if he had been healthy all year.
It’s entirely realistic that Alexander Nikishin can step in and make an immediate impact, as the highly-touted defender has put up 102 points over his last 128 games in the KHL.
Playing a shorthanded Devils side in Round One, and a Washington Capitals team that could be coming down to earth in Round Two, offers the Hurricanes a great chance of at least making the final four, and they will have a realistic chance of winning those series if they do get there.
Stanley Cup outright pick: Carolina Hurricanes +800
Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (WC2)
Stanley Cup odds: Capitals (+950), Canadiens (+8000)
Series odds: Capitals (-285), Canadiens (+230)
The Canadiens are a trendy pick to upset the Eastern Conference-winning Capitals, as these teams have trended in opposite directions down the stretch. On top of that, memories of an upstart Canadiens side upsetting a Presidents’ Trophy-winning Capitals team in 2010 are popping up in everybody’s minds.
The Capitals feel like one of the most volatile teams entering the postseason. A team nobody really thought would be overly dominant this season, finally appeared to come down to earth with a record of 8-6-1 over the last 15 games. However, a lack of motivation to win during that span may have helped cause the regression, and the tail-end of Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record did seem to be a distraction.
The Capitals are also likely to be without two major pieces entering this series, as No. 1 goaltender Logan Thompson and Aliaksei Protas are expected to miss the first few games, though their statuses are fairly uncertain which adds to the idea that this team is pretty volatile right now.
The vibes in Montreal are off the charts, as a developing young side snuck into the playoffs with a 15-5-6 tear since the 4 Nations Face-Off and suddenly picked up a potential game-breaker in Ivan Demidov.
Logically speaking, though, the Canadiens do appear to be a team that is likely to come down to earth. They hold a 26th-ranked expected goal share since the 4 Nations Face-Off, and have allowed 3.46 xGA/60 in that span.
Goaltenders Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes have both been fantastic and are the greatest reason Montreal could steal this series, but they will have their work cut out for them considering the team’s shaky defensive play versus a Capitals side that ranked second in goals scored per game this season.
Charlie Lindgren has been the Capitals’ better netminder over the last two months, and was absolutely fantastic in 2023-24. With Thompson’s status unclear, it’s realistic that he will get the start in Game 1 and may not relinquish the cage if things go smoothly.
If the Capitals are to go on a surprising run, it will surely take elite goaltending to win it all, and at 500/1 there’s value taking the chance that Lindgren ends up stealing the starter’s role.
Pick: Charlie Lindgren +50000 to win Conn Smythe.
Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC2)
Stanley Cup odds: Maple Leafs (+1200), Senators (+3500)
Series odds: Maple Leafs (-180), Senators (+155)
The Battle of Ontario should be one of the best first-round series, as the Leafs will look to prove they are a different team than in years past under head coach Craig Berube after winning the Atlantic Division.
While it feels like the Leafs have learned a thing or two about the minor details that win hockey games this season, the underlying results suggest these teams are quite even. Ottawa finished 13th in expected goal share this season, while Toronto ranked 17th.
Anthony Stolarz was arguably the second-best goaltender in the NHL this season and helped the Leafs outperform their underlying metrics, but the Senators can feel pretty good about their chances with Vezina-winning goaltender Linus Ullmark in goal.
Head-to-head results in the regular season are not overly indicative of how a playoff series may go, but for what it’s worth, the Leafs are just 1-6-0 versus Ottawa over the last two years.
If the Sens can force this series to six or seven games, the Leafs could be gripping their sticks pretty tight given all of their failures in recent elimination games.
I’d rather buy into the idea that this year could be different in Toronto by betting on them to win the Cup at +1200, than back them versus a scrappy Senators side in the first round.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup winner +1200.
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs. New Jersey Devils (M3)
Stanley Cup odds: Hurricanes (+800), Devils (+4000)
Series odds: Hurricanes (-277), Devils (+225)
As outlined above, I’m a believer that the Hurricanes are a real contender, and one of the main reasons why is their favourable bracket.
The Devils sustained a massive loss when Jack Hughes suffered a season-ending injury on March 2nd. They hold a record of 9-10-1 since Hughes’s injury and have scored only 2.75 goals per game during that span. Dougie Hamilton’s return to the lineup should help that concern to some extent, but they will still be without their best shutdown defender in Jonas Siegenthaler, and have allowed 3.20 xGA/60 since the 4 Nations Face-Off.
At -125, I see value backing the Hurricanes to take advantage of this favourable matchup and win in six games or less.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes series spread -1.5 (-125).
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (A3)
Stanley Cup odds: Lightning (+1100), Panthers (+750)
Series odds: Lightning (-105), Panthers (-115)
It’s hard to entirely evaluate the Florida Panthers right now, as they have spent the last two months playing without Matt Tkachuk, and were offered plenty of rest to their best starters down the stretch.
What we do know, though, is that the Lightning offer one of the most well-rounded rosters in the league and that Florida’s acquisition of Seth Jones looks to be a disaster.
The Lightning led the league in goals scored per game this season and made significant improvements at the deadline, bringing in Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, who are both significant improvements upon the skaters who formerly played those minutes in the middle-six.
While the Lightning’s offensive upside is sky high, they have allowed only 2.90 xGA/60 since the 4 Nations Face-Off and have one of the league’s best netminders in goal in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
This is the best Lightning roster since the ones that won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, and I see value in backing them as slight underdogs in a rematch of last year’s opening round.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to win series -105.
Western Conference
Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)
Stanley Cup odds: Jets (+1000), Blues (+4000)
Series odds: Jets (-208), Blues (+170)
While Hellebuyck struggled last postseason versus a high-powered Avalanche team, he’s by a wide margin the greatest reason the Jets have a chance to win it all this year, and backing him to win the Conn Smythe appears to be the sharp way to back Winnipeg winning it all.
Winnipeg came down to earth offensively over the last two months, scoring only 2.81 goals per game. Part of their offensive drop-off came due to the losses of Gabriel Vilardi and Neal Pionk, but they will be without a critical piece in Nikolaj Ehlers in this series.
However, the Jets appear to be an even better side defensively this season compared to last, and have allowed only 2.78 xGA/60 since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Chances are if they make a run it will mean winning a lot of low-scoring, tight-checking games with their likely Vezina-winning goaltender leading the way.
In terms of sides in this series, the prices look fair. The Blues will provide a formidable opponent for the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets, as they have played to a record of 34-18-7 since hiring Jim Montgomery, hold a 50.45% expected goal share over the last 20 games, and have a goaltender capable of stealing games in Jordan Binnington.
Pick: Connor Hellebuyck Conn Smythe winner +1500.
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1)
Stanley Cup odds: Knights (+850), Wild (+4000)
Series odds: Knights (-238), Wild (+195)
The Minnesota Wild are somewhat of a wild card entering this series. They were on top of the NHL standings on December 1st, but have fallen off quite badly since that point, largely due to a nightmare injury situation.
Minnesota is now healthy, and could potentially have a massive addition in Zeev Buium, as we have seen many top NCAA skaters jump in and make an immediate impact in recent years.
Still, it’s pretty hard to make a case for the Wild as they take on an experienced Knights side which looks to be a true Stanley Cup contender.
The Knights won the Pacific Division with a record of 50-22-10, and finished with a +56 goal differential. They feature a highly mobile, physical defensive core which should prove effective in playoff style gameplay. They rank first in expected goal share since March 1, and have a highly capable starter in Adin Hill.
While Pavel Dorofeyev led all Knights skaters with 35 goals in 82 games this season, Eichel was not far behind with 28 goals in 77 games played.
Eichel is a proven playoff performer who has put up nine goals and 33 points across 29 playoff games, and for that reason, I feel it’s more likely that he would be the Knights’ leading goal-scorer than a relative unknown in Dorofeyev.
Kirill Kaprizov is tied with Dorofeyev to lead the series in goals and would be my preferred bet out of those two, but it should be far tougher for Kaprizov to score goals at a lofty rate in this series versus the Knights defence than it will be for Eichel.
Pick: Jack Eichel to lead series in goals +700.
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (C3)
Stanley Cup odds: Stars (+750), Avalanche (+775)
Series odds: Stars (+125), Avalanche (-150)
While the Colorado Avalanche have been one of the best teams in the league since the trade deadline, the Dallas Stars’ play has fallen off quite severely, and the causations towards their differing results seem quite clear.
With Miro Heiskanen sidelined, the Stars defensive core looks pretty shaky on paper, as Matt Dumba and Cody Ceci have both been significantly worse than average defenders for several seasons in a row.
Since the 4 Nations Face-Off no team has allowed more shots against than the Stars, and they also hold the worst expected goals against per 60 rating in that span. Dallas is just 3-5-2 in its last 10 games and has allowed 3.70 goals against per game in that span, and the underlying results tell us that is no fluke.
The Avs, meanwhile, seem to be trending into top form at the right time, which is not surprising considering their depth is now significantly better than it was earlier in the season thanks to improved health and the additions of Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Jack Drury.
Since the trade deadline, Colorado is 12-5-2 and has scored 3.42 goals per game while allowing only 2.42 goals against per game.
Dallas will benefit from home-ice advantage in this series, but statistically speaking home ice is overvalued, and I’m happy to get a better price on the Avs because of it. Road teams went 46-41 in the 2023-24 postseason, and in the second-round matchup between these two teams in particular, went 5-1.
At +130, I see value backing the Avs to win this series in six games or less. There also appears to be value backing Colorado to win Game 1, in which the Stars will be without Heiskanen.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche series spread -1.5 +130, -115 Game 1 moneyline.
Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs Edmonton Oilers (P3)
Stanley Cup odds: Kings (+2000), Oilers (+850)
Series odds: Kings (+115), Oilers (-135)
It’s hard to imagine the Kings ever running away with a series versus the Oilers, especially as in any do-or-die games the Oilers will play their superstars hefty minutes as we have seen throughout the last two seasons, minimizing the Kings’ depth advantage.
The Kings are no joke, though, and look to be a much improved side compared to the team which bowed in five games.
They have been just as dominant defensively as in recent years, as they rank first in xGA/60 since the trade deadline, a metric which was highly indicative of playoff success last season. While they have graded out as one of the best defensive teams in in three straight seasons, they have not had a starting goaltender offer the level of play that Darcy Kuemper has this season.
Kuemper holds a +22.5 GSAx and .921 save percentage in 50 games this season.
My belief is that we will see a highly-competitive, back-and-forth series, and at a long price of +200, I see value backing this matchup to require a seventh game.
Pick: Series to go to Game 7 +200.
Conn Smythe odds
| Player | Conn Smythe odds |
| Connor McDavid | +1300 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +1400 |
| Connor Hellebuyck | +1500 |
| Jack Eichel | +2000 |
| Cale Makar | +2200 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +2200 |
| Jake Oettinger | +2500 |
| Aleksander Barkov | +2500 |
| Sebastian Aho | +2800 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +2800 |
| Alex Ovechkin | +3000 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | +3000 |
| Seth Jarvis | +3000 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +3000 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | +3000 |
On top of the Conn Smythe picks which I outlined above, I see value throwing a dart on Kuemper to win at 100/1.
The Kings have been one of the league’s very best defensive sides this season, and that will be the strength which powers them to success if they are to make a deep run.
Adrian Kempe has been dominant in the postseason early on in his career, but it still seems that he is overvalued to be favored over Kuemper on a team which will likely win lots of low scoring games if they have success this playoffs.
The Kings lack a clear cut top skater, and are a team which should have a decent chance to win it all based upon their depth and not the play of any skater in particular, which suggests their dominant goaltender in Kuemper is a savvy bet at a price of +100.
Pick: Darcy Kuemper +10000, Adin Hill +5000.