Number Crunch: Cam Charron digs into Edmonton’s improved depth and Calgary’s slow start
Do the Oilers have the best depth they’ve had in the Connor McDavid era? Are the Calgary Flames better than their record indicates? Cam Charron joined Daily Faceoff Live on Thursday to analyze some early trends from Western Canada’s teams.
Seravalli: “I wanted to ask about the Edmonton Oilers. Prior to their win against the Tampa Bay Lightning this week, the temperature was going up a little bit. They’re a team that’s relied so much in years past on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and it seemed like their secondary scoring had really struggled to this point.
Does that still hold true? The Oilers are one of the best teams when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the ice and one of the worst when they’re on the bench?”
Charron: “It was true in previous years but I don’t think it’s been true this year. I think one of the reasons is that Ryan McLeod has really stepped into being that third-line talent that Edmonton hasn’t had in the Connor McDavid era. He and Jesse Puljujarvi are fantastic together.
When the team doesn’t have McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, they’re at 54 percent Corsi this year, compared to 48 percent over the last three years. In this chart here, I’ve looked at Corsi for bottom-six players and the Oilers are seventh-best in the league…
They’re not giving up a lot of shots when the bottom-six is on the ice. They’re also not scoring as much as they have been in the past, but I think that’s going to come around, the McLeod, Warren Foegele, and Puljujarvi line has a low shooting percentage.
I really like Ryan McLeod. I think he’s a fantastic player. He’s got speed, he’s got skill, and he does a lot of things right in all three zones of the ice. He’s a player that can really move the needle, especially against lower competition. The fact that he’s broken out and become an everyday player, it’s helped the Oilers become a better team without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice.”
Cohen: “When we look at Jonathan Huberdeau, he’s off to a slow start in Calgary. He’s moved around, he’s played a little bit with Elias Lindholm, he’s played a little with Nazem Kadri. What have you seen from him in his start in Calgary, and where do you think he fits best in that Darryl Sutter lineup?”
Charron: “That’s a tough question. I don’t think any of the combinations he’s been with have looked good, so to speak. Something looks a little off.
I was with the Maple Leafs for years and Huberdeau was a division rival, we saw him all the time, and we watched the Panthers’ games and scouted them. He’s one of the best playmakers in the game, and I don’t know if I’ve seen that yet with Calgary. But part of the problem is that Calgary, while they’re getting a lot of shots, they just aren’t finishing on them. It’s difficult to judge how good they are offensively.
This is a five-on-five shooting percentage chart for Flames forwards. I’m comparing this season to their previous seasons, and we just see this huge dip for so many skilled players.
Huberdeau doesn’t have a five-on-five goal this year, Dillon Dube, who shot over 10 percent last year, doesn’t have a five-on-five goal, and Milan Lucic doesn’t have a five-on-five goal. The only guys who are shooting higher than expected are Brett Ritchie and Mikael Backlund, guys lower in the lineup.
The Flames as a whole last year, even the guys they lost in Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, they were among the leaders in on-ice shooting percentage. I still think this team has the weapons, like there’s nothing about Andrew Mangiapane’s game that I’m watching where I’m saying ‘oh, you’re not getting to the dirty areas and you’re not getting good shots off.’
It’s difficult to judge two or three weeks into the season when teams are struggling like this. You need to be a little patient. With the Flames, and we’ve seen this movie before, sometimes we see a team that’s top-10 in shots rate, top-10 in expected goals, but they’re bottom-10 in shooting percentage, and they’re under .500 in one-goal games. These teams tend to improve throughout the year.”
You can watch the full episode here…