Olympic men’s hockey playoff preview: Sweden vs. Latvia
SWEDEN (2-0-1-0) vs. LATVIA (1-0-2-0): Feb. 17, 3:10 p.m. ET
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Sweden‘s preliminary round was mired with slight disappointment in every game. Against Italy, it took them until the final five minutes to get a multi-goal lead. Against Finland, they fell flat in the face of their Nordic rivals. Against Slovakia, they won but couldn’t even get the right goal differential to finish first in Group B. Coach Sam Hallam doesn’t know how to best utilize his players, their goaltending has significantly underperformed, and it feels like every skater not named Rasmus Dahlin could be better. Because of that, they’re the seventh seed with a matchup against a Latvia team known for their upsets against top teams, and if the Swedes win that, they have the United States in the quarterfinals. It’s a tough spot to be in, but you can’t say Sweden deserves to be in a better spot based on its play so far.
As for Latvia, they lost bad to the United States (although they held on longer than expected), bested Germany in an epic showdown, and they kept Denmark honest, ultimately falling to last in Group C, although it definitely had the highest floor. Latvia hasn’t had any stellar performances from any players, although Dans Locmelis’ two-goal performance against Germany was a big help in that win. Arturs Silovs was also solid in the game.
WHEN THEY LAST MET IN BEST ON BEST…
Latvia and Sweden actually met the last time we had best-on-best hockey at the Olympics, as the two countries were both in Group C at the 2014 tournament in Sochi, Russia and played in the preliminary round. Latvia gave the Swedes the usual scare, going up 2-1 early in the second period, but three unanswered goals in 16 minutes killed any momentum. Ultimately, the Swedes won 5-3 to go undefeated in the preliminary round, although both teams met the same fate losing to Canada. And while Henrik Lundqvist was named to the tournament’s all-star team, this game was arguably his worst of the tournament, as he stopped just 20 of 23 shots despite the win for Sweden.
TOP SCORERS
Sweden
1. Lucas Raymond, F: 3 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS
2. Rasmus Dahlin, D: 3 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 4 PTS
T3. Adrian Kempe, F: 3 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS
T3. Mika Zibanejad, F: 3 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS
5. Erik Karlsson, D: 3 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS
Latvia
1. Zemgus Girgensons, F: 3 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS
T2. Renars Krastenbergs, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS
T2. Eduards Tralmaks, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS
4. Dans Locmelis, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 2 PTS
5. Kristaps Zile, D: 3 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS
SWEDEN
On paper, Sweden boasted the best roster of the tournament of teams not named Canada or the United States. While injuries (Leo Carlsson) and underperformance (Elias Pettersson, Mika Zibanejad) have limited their center depth to players better known for their defensive play (Joel Eriksson Ek, Elias Lindholm), they boast talent on the wings , on the blueline and in net that can rival the big two. They have a great collection of up-and-coming players (Philip Broberg, Lucas Raymond, Jesper Wallstedt), prime superstars (Rasmus Dahlin, Filip Gustavsson, William Nylander) and experienced veterans still with something left in the tank (Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Gabriel Landeskog, Jacob Markstrom).
On paper, it should have been enough to take the top seed in a group with an injured Finland and the regressing talent pool of Slovakia, but it wasn’t. All their strengths showed up at various points of the preliminary round, but the problem is not enough of them showed up at the same time, and in the Finland loss, none of them showed up at all. Heck, they didn’t even get a breakout performance from any of their forwards until Raymond (1 G, 2 A) and Pettersson (2 G) in the win over Slovakia in the third game. Sweden won’t need all these strengths operating in harmony to beat Latvia, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to figure that out before they’re up against a powerhouse like the United States.
LATVIA
There’s no denying Latvia is the underdog in this matchup. In the two countries’ 22 meetings at the Olympic Games and the World Championship, Latvia has beaten Sweden twice and drew them once and never done so at the Olympics. What Sweden boasts in NHL talent, Latvia lacks significantly. They have just 10 players with NHL affiliation with the most notable being Teodors Blugers, Zemgus Girgensons and Uvis Balinskis, all bottom-of-the-lineup NHLers. They do have two NHL caliber goaltenders capable of stealing a game in Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs, but neither goalie is a top-tier starting goaltender either. Alberts Smits, who is eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft, has the highest ceiling of any Latvian, and he’s played well, but at 18, he’s still not at the level of any defender Sweden can boast.
But where Latvia lacks in NHL talent, they make up for it with their hard work. They weren’t an easy win for any team in Group C, as they held the United States to a 1-1 tie for the first half of the game, bested a Germany team with elite NHL talent, and nearly rallied back against Denmark after falling 3-0 early. If there’s one aspect of their game where they beat Sweden right now, it’s their ability to play 2-3 times their skill level, while it feels like Sweden is playing 2-3 times below theirs.
BURNING QUESTIONS
Will an extra game before the quarterfinals give Sweden the chance to figure things out? Sweden is missing a gear in their performance, and it’s the biggest reason why they’re currently the seventh seed in the playoffs and not relaxing until the quarterfinals. Whether it’s the big names playing a step behind where they should be, the questionable management of some players’ ice time or constantly losing the goaltending battle, the Swedes need to be better if they want to contend for a medal. Some have argued that playing another game in the qualification playoffs could be beneficial for Sweden to work out any kinks, but it’s still a risky spot to be in, especially with a matchup with the United States being the reward for a win. It felt like some parts of the lineup were already clicking against Slovakia, but they need to be firing on all cylinders if they want to go anywhere in this tournament.
Is there another upset in the cards for Latvia? While Latvia’s notable near or completed upsets in international play have usually come against Canada (whether that’s the 2014 quarterfinals or the last two years in the World Juniors), they have had their moments against Sweden, as proven by the aforementioned previous best-on-best meeting. They’ve developed a reputation as a hard-working team that always plays above expectations and surprises the international powerhouses, but they’ll need that magic once again, even if Sweden is underperforming. It certainly has all the makings of an upset, but Latvia still has to pull it off.
PREDICTION
This is the trap game of all trap games. Sweden is easily the best team in the qualifiers and should be the favorite in any matchup, especially against a Latvia team with nowhere near the same talent level. But Latvia always plays better than the sum of their parts, and with Sweden struggling in the preliminary round, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see an upset here.
That said, an upset would be a Herb Brooks-esque “If we played ’em 10 times, they might win nine, but not this game”-type miracle. As long as Hallam goes into this game remembering the Swedes are supposed to the Soviets and not the Americans, and whoever starts in net for Sweden plays up to the task, I think Sweden should still pull away with a win. But maybe Latvia still scares them to start with a goal or two. Sweden wins 5-2.
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