Olympic men’s hockey power rankings: Canada remains on top after preliminary rounds

With Hunter Crowther

The preliminary round has wrapped up at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, and it certainly hasn’t disappointed. We’ve seen our fair share of upsets, particularly highlighted by some great goaltending performances, and some players have carried on their legacies at the Olympics, whether old (Sidney Crosby) or young (Juraj Slafkovsky).

As the playoffs are set to begin Tuesday, where do the 12 teams stand? Hunter Crowther and I ranked all 12 teams based on their performances in the preliminary round, with some use of stats, but since the IIHF apparently doesn’t want to share, there are a lot more vibe-based judgements than in our NHL power rankings.

1. Canada

Record: 3-0-0-0, +17
Last Week: 1st (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Scott: I’m not going to lie, there was a tiny part of me that debated putting the United States over Canada. Some of that had to do with the stats I was using to help factor in my list, but that mostly came down to the gap in the penalty kill between the two countries. Canada’s has been really good, but the United States’ has been perfect. Still, it’s not a strong enough reason to make the swap when Canada hasn’t looked a step out of place, and the US has had a couple bumps in the road.

I will say though, while Canada clearly has the higher ceiling between the two teams, I’m still not as sold on Jordan Binnington as everyone else is, and I think he gives them a lower floor. He looked like the locked-in version we saw in the 4 Nations Face-Off final against Czechia, which secured him the starting gig for the rest of the tournament. But he also looked like the Binnington we’ve seen all season with the St. Louis Blues against France (albeit he had a light night facing only 14 shots).

If the former version shows up in the playoffs, Canada will have no problems with how they’re playing in front of Binnington. But if the latter shows up, it will be a lot easier for another top team like the United States to pull away with a win compared to if Canada played Logan Thompson who has been as consistent as can be over the past two years. Binnington has proved me wrong already last year, but I just don’t feel great about the blind faith Jon Cooper and Co. have in him. 

Hunter: I think I’ve reached a point with the Binnington discourse where I’ll never be fully comfortable with him being the starter, but at this point, it doesn’t matter … Cooper loves him and the Canadian management group is all in on the, “He’s got that dawg in him” narrative, and if Binnington and this men’s roster can buy into the kayfabe of him being the best goalie for the best country in the world, and it results in gold, then so be it.

Also … I’d love to give Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby all the praise in the world, and enough people have already done that, so I’m going to give some quiet love to Bo Horvat, whom enough “Joe from the Bridges” and uncles from Oshawa scratched their heads over him being added to the roster. He’s got two goals and plays like someone who makes a brilliant play nearly every shift. Isn’t it great he got the hell away from the Vancouver Canucks?! 

One more quick thing: If you watched Cooper talk with the team after their game against France, it had the kind of tone that said, “Enough of that garbage, let’s get to work.” I would hate to be the team that plays them in the quarterfinals. 

2. United States

Record: 3-0-0-0, +11
Last Week: 2nd (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 2th
Scott’s Rank: 2th

Hunter: If we’re going strictly by boxscores and standings, the United States had about as solid a preliminary round as we could ask for. Auston Matthews has shown flashes of the world-class player who’s eluded the Toronto Maple Leafs for most of the 2025-26 season; Matthew and Brady Tkachuk are both A) Being the absolute worst human beings possible while B) Contributing offensively and generating high-quality scoring chances, and Connor Hellebuyck has looked comfortable and confident in the crease through two games.

So why does it feel so underwhelming? They won all three preliminary games in regulation, but there were only a few windows where they truly looked like an all-world group. Are they still getting a feel for things? You would think with games against countries like Latvia, Denmark and Germany, the U.S. could fit a six-or-seven goal victory into their schedule, but instead they produced slow starts and look sluggish at times, allowing far lesser skilled teams to stay in it.

Having said all that, it was the preliminary round, and perhaps the real heat isn’t turned on until we enter the “lose and go home” stage of the tournament. The U.S. won Group C with ease and will face the winner of Sweden-Latvia in the quarterfinals. If the Swedes advance, it might be enough of a heavyweight opponent to awaken the beast in red, white and blue. 

Scott: The criticism of Matthews has been insane. I’ve never seen a player perform totally fine but get thrown to the wolves like he has. I guess since Adam Fox isn’t here, they need a new scapegoat, and it’s always easy to target the Leaf.

That said, I agree that it just feels like there’s another gear here. Perhaps they need a Sweden or Canada to bring it out of them, but it might be smart to keep their foot off the gas when they’ve never really needed to stomp on it (outside of that Denmark game, it would have been hilarious if they lost that considering the political climate).

Hunter: On that day, we were all Danes. 

3. Finland

Record: 2-0-0-1, +11
Last Week: 4th (+1) 
Hunter’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Hunter: I know I wasn’t alone when I saw the result of Finland’s opening game against Slovakia and thought they were in for a bumpy ride. It also didn’t help that a story out of Finnish news platform Ilta-Sanomat reported that a player approached national team general manager Jere Lehtinen and asked if they could replace Antti Pennanen with Florida Panthers’ head coach Paul Maurice.

But maybe this strategy of having your players hate you so much that they would rather hire a Canadian to coach your national team is a good thing, because the Finns dominated archrival Sweden in a 4-1 win, then manhandled Italy in an 11-0 effort. Mikko Rantanen is close to full-blown beast mode, and Kappo Kakko is playing some of the best hockey of his career. Most of the credit has to go to the defensive pairing of Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, whom Finland has no issues playing close to 30 minutes a game.

If Juuse Saros reaches his 2021 apex, the Finns are leaving with a medal. 

Scott: I wasn’t optimistic about Finland after the first game against Slovakia, but they’ve turned it around in no time. The Finns always find a way to overperform, and they’ve done it again thus far.

4. Sweden

Record: 2-0-0-1, +2
Last Week: 3rd (-1) 
Hunter’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Scott: I can see every argument for why Sweden should be ranked lower than Finland. For starters, they lost the head-to-head matchup. Their head coach has certainly made some questionable decisions that have cost the team in the early going. Their goaltending has been suspect all tournament. And it still feels like Sweden has another gear to them that they can’t hit, while Finland has taken an extra step.

But I’m also still trying to rate teams based on their ceilings, especially these higher-end teams. I still think Sweden has it in them to medal and maybe upset one of the big two if they get their act together. What they lack in center depth, they make up for in depth on the wings, on defense and in net. You could also argue that playing that extra game in the playoff round against Latvia will be a good way to iron out all the kinks. That said, Latvia knows how to give teams fits and cause an upset, so Sweden shouldn’t take their foot off the gas either.

Hunter: Ceilings are for the Sistine Chapel … speaking of Italy, they gave the Swedes one hell of a fight. I do agree with Scott that there’s so much more to this Swedish group, and I’d expect them to show Latvia no mercy on Tuesday. What I’m really interested in seeing is, if they move past Latvia, how they play against the U.S. They proved in their win over Slovakia that they can turn the heat on when necessary, and the Americans haven’t faced a proper onslaught of shot attempts. Skol, skol! 

5. Slovakia

Record: 2-0-0-1, +2
Last Week: 8th (+3) 
Hunter’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Hunter: Slovakia couldn’t have started this tournament any better, throwing hits at Finnish skaters and pucks at Juuse Saros, with Juraj Slafkovsky looking like the 1994-95 version of Eric Lindros. They survived a scare against Italy, but Sweden greatly outplayed them over the weekend. Still, the Slovaks won Group B on tiebreaker and earned a bye to the quarterfinals, where they’ll get a favorable matchup against one of Germany or France … OK, likely Germany.

Slovakia has been blessed with top-tier goaltending from Samuel Hlavaj, who has struggled in both the ECHL and AHL this season but has stopped 39 and 46 shots, respectively, in his two appearances. If they win their semifinal matchup, Hlavaj gives Slovakia a chance against one of the tournament powerhouses. 

Scott: I’ve loved Slovakia’s performance in this tournament, especially from Slafkovsky, but I won’t lie, their reliance on Hlavaj is what put them below the Swiss for me. They’ve allowed the most shots in the tournament aside from France and Italy, and while it’s a small sample size, they’re flying a bit too close to the sun with this one.

That said, Bill Guerin has to be smiling ear to ear, as on top of how well Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt have performed this season for the Minnesota Wild, his AHL netminder just carried a team to a bye. The Wild could be lethal in net for years to come, and maybe the Wild use this opportunity to either sell high on Hlavaj or move one of their other two goalies for a top-line center.

6. Switzerland

Record: 1-1-0-1
Last Week: 6th (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Scott: You know what, I slept on the Swiss and they made me look silly. Our Daily Faceoff colleague Steven Ellis has raved about their power play and how important it could be in a small tournament like that. Lo and behold, they have the best power-play unit from a team not named Canada or the USA, and it’s made a huge difference in their play. Their penalty kill has been even better as well.

There are two other big X-factors for me with this group: Timo Meier and Leonardo Genoni. Meier has underperformed for several seasons with the New Jersey Devils, but he’s stepped up as the Swiss’ top goal scorer with three goals in three games. With the injuries they’ve already dealt with, especially to Kevin Fiala, seeing Meier step up has been massive. And then Genoni has just been incredible. He hasn’t exactly had to steal games for Switzerland, but he hasn’t let the other team get into the game either, which was particularly important against Czechia. If these two can keep up their play, along with the special teams success, the Swiss are a strong dark horse candidate to medal.

Hunter: One time I also slept on the Swiss, and agreed to never eat Subway in bed again. Switzerland has shown up to each game with complete efforts and have played with the same precision of a Swiss-made watch. OK, I’m out of puns, but it’s refreshing to see a team that’s found success in tournaments like the World Championship find success on the biggest stage. If they get past Italy in the qualifier, they have as good a shot as any at beating Finland in the quarterfinals. 

7. Czechia

Record: 1-0-1-1, -3
Last Week: 5th (-2) 
Hunter’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: On one hand, Czechia has performed about at the level you would expect from them. They lost to Canada. They took care of business against France. Their game against Switzerland came down to one goal in overtime. That’s not a surprise.

But it’s how Czechia lost that leaves me a bit sour. A blowout to Canada isn’t surprising, but many thought Czechia could have put up some kind of a fight against Canada. The Czechs beat France, but they were in the game a lot longer than they should have been. And then while the game against Switzerland was close, Czechia lost. They’re still a minor threat to medal, but my hopes aren’t as high after that performance in the preliminary round.

I know David Pastrnak has three points, but it still feels like we’re missing a big-game performance from him in this tournament too, one where he carries Czechia on his back to a win.

Hunter: What’s most disappointing is Pastrnak could give you that performance against the Danes, then they will face a Canadian squad that’s ready to lay a whooping. 

8. Denmark

Record: 1-0-0-2, -3
Last Week: 9th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Hunter: Among the non-4 Nations Face-Off squads in the Olympics, Denmark has one of the better rosters. But through the preliminary round, Nikolaj Ehlers has just one goal and seven shots on goal, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is goalless. Still, Denmark gave Germany a good fight and put the fear of god into the U.S. for about 50 minutes, then beat Latvia with a commanding 4-2 win. Who knows, maybe Ehlers and Bjorkstrand will wake up and shock the Czechs. 

Also, unless your name is Steven Ellis or you’re an obsessive World Championship fan, there’s a 0% chance you’ve heard of Nick Olesen. And yet he’s got three goals in the tournament, including two against Latvia. Czech Extraliga all-stars, what a concept! 

Scott: There is some good news for Denmark though: the right Frederik Andersen has shown up at the tournament so far. He’s looked closer to the Andersen who stole games in the prime of his career, which is just what the Danes needed.

Hunter: I wouldn’t call Andersen a Great Dane, because that would imply he’s got that dog in him.

9. Germany

Record: 1-0-0-2, -3
Last Week: 7th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Hunter: Germany came into this year’s tournament with plenty of observers thinking they could be a sneaky pick to advance to the medal round. That could still happen, as they face France on Tuesday and anything could happen against Slovakia. Tim Stutzle has scored in every game and is tied with Macklin Celebrini for the most goals in the tournament with four, while Leon Draisaitl has been a workhorse, generating scoring chances and winning nearly every shift he’s been on the ice for. The problem is, Stutzle and Draisaitl are only two people, and there are 20 skaters in the lineup in international hockey. You see the problem?

Scott: I say this with the caveat that Germany was playing the United States, who have more than enough tools to stop the Germans’ few superstars, but I couldn’t help but notice Draisaitl, Stutzle and Moritz Seider were slowing down. They’ve had to play a lot of minutes in a short span, so I wonder if fatigue is starting to set in.

JJ Peterka’s been a bit quiet as well, with just the three assists. Germany is going to need a bit more from him to contend for a medal, especially if other teams are able to overcome his other NHL teammates.

10. Latvia

Record: 1-0-0-2, -5
Last Week: 10th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Scott: While Latvia didn’t pull off the mother of all upsets against the United States like many Canadians may have expected after the recent history between those two countries, Latvia did pull off an upset against Germany and their superstars to get their win. Latvia also put up a good fight against Denmark, so while they finished last in their group, it’s very close between the bottom three, hence why all three teams are back-to-back-to-back.

If Latvia does still have one major upset left in them, they do have a date with a struggling Sweden team on Tuesday. That has some potential to be a shocker.

Hunter: Arturs … Arturs … ARTURS … ARTURS … (BANGS TABLE LOUDLY, FURIOUSLY YELLING) ARTURS … ARTURS … ARTURS!

11. Italy

Record: 0-0-0-3, -15
Last Week: 12th (+1) 
Hunter’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Scott: You know what, credit to Italy. Everyone expected them to come to the tournament and be an easy out. They never got a win, and the dam broke in their final game against Finland, but those first two games against Sweden and Slovakia were much bigger headaches than those respective teams expected. A lot credit for that goes to Damien Clara, who kept the Italians in those games for far longer than expected. He’s an Anaheim Ducks prospect, so don’t be surprised if he eventually finds his way into the NHL, even if it’s for a “Kristers Gudlevskis stint”.

I won’t say this Olympic showing is a good long-term sign for Italy as a hockey nation considering how many of their players are imports, but maybe these performances will at least motivate Italian children to pick up some skates and learn the game. Forza Italy!*

*this showing of support is immediately rescinded if Italy wins their World Cup playoff and has to face Canada this summer.

12. France

Record: 0-0-0-3, -15
Last Week: 11th (-1) 
Hunter’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Hunter: You know what’s funny? I liked watching France play against Switzerland, and I thought their first 30 or so minutes against Czechia were quite good … then reality set in, and both the Czechs, then the Canadians, remembered that they had NHL All-Star talent, while the French … well, the French didn’t. Hey, at least we’ll remember Pierre Crinon’s name for bar trivia questions for years to come! 

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