Panthers’ Sam Reinhart debuts as No. 1 free agent on Daily Faceoff’s Top 50 UFAs
When the Carolina Hurricanes took a well-earned breath between playoff rounds this week, the focus shifted from games to gamesmanship, as conversation ramped up about how and why coach Rod Brind’Amour remains without a contract extension.
Brind’Amour is one of a handful of genuinely curious subjects sans a signature on an extension.
Perhaps none bigger than Florida Panthers right winger Sam Reinhart, who is the No. 1 ranked player on Daily Faceoff‘s first Top 50 Free Agents board of the offseason. Reinhart, 28, finished second only to Auston Matthews in goals and set new career highs in goals (57) and points (94) while helping the Cats capture their second division title in three years.
To this point, all sides in the Reinhart negotiation have said the right things.
Reinhart characterized negotiations on our Frankly Speaking podcast in January as “ongoing” and “definitely positive.” It is unclear whether those talks have continued, or whether they’ve been tabled during the playoffs. He said he wants to remain a Panther.
“That’s the goal. I love it in Florida and I know they’re happy to have me,” Reinhart said in January. “I’m just happy with where we’re at as a team right now.”
So, since Reinhart also said he was comfortable then with talks ongoing, why isn’t a deal done? The Panthers have some cap flexibility on the way. He is a fantastic fit with Aleksander Barkov. And they’ve got the no state income tax advantage. Shouldn’t everyone just agree on eight years and $76 million and not bleep with happy?
If it were that easy, it would be done by now. Our friends at AFP Analytics projected Reinhart at eight years and $10.2 million for a total of $81.6 million. Toronto’s William Nylander finished with four more points than Reinhart but 17 fewer goals, and he signed an eight-year, $92 million deal at $11.5 million per year.
Will it factor in? In theory yes, but in practicality, it shouldn’t due to the 17 percent difference in tax. At a $9.5 million AAV, Reinhart would net more in pay than Nylander’s $11.5 million. In fact, a player in Toronto would need to earn $12.875 million per year to be equivalent in net pay to Matthew Tkachuk’s $9.5 million, according to the tax calculator at Gavin Hockey Wealth Specialists.
There is also the matter of Reinhart’s career-highs coming in a contract year. He shot the lights out at a league-best 24.5 percent, some of which is repeatable because of how close in he scored his goals. But his career average over three seasons in Florida is 41 goals, and that’s factoring in the 57 he scored this year. How much of a premium are the Panthers willing to pay based on one statistical outlier season? How would they balance that with trying to replace him? It all adds to the intrigue of a deep and talented but aging free agent class that potentially includes Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Marchessault.
The countdown to free agency’s July 1 opening is on. Here is Daily Faceoff‘s first Top 50 Free Agent ranking of the offseason, with contract projections provided by AFP Analytics: (Note: AFP Analytics has not done its full summer free agent projection yet, and these numbers are based off statistics and models from January.)
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Team | Cap Hit | GP | G | PTS | AFP Proj* |
| 1 | Sam Reinhart | RW | 29 | FLA | $6.5M | 82 | 57 | 94 | 8 x $10.2M |
| 2 | Jake Guentzel | LW | 30 | CAR | $6M | 67 | 30 | 77 | 6 x $8M |
| 3 | Steven Stamkos | LW/C | 34 | TBL | $8.5M | 79 | 40 | 81 | 3 x $6.3M |
| 4 | Patrick Kane | RW | 36 | DET | $2.75M | 50 | 20 | 47 | 2 x $5.5M |
| 5 | Joe Pavelski | RW | 40 | DAL | $5.5M | 82 | 27 | 67 | 1 x $4M |
| 6 | Brady Skjei | LD | 30 | CAR | $5.25M | 80 | 13 | 47 | 6 x $7.4M |
| 7 | Jonathan Marchessault | RW | 34 | VGK | $5M | 82 | 42 | 69 | 3 x $6.25M |
| 8 | Elias Lindholm | C/RW | 30 | VAN | $4.85M | 75 | 15 | 44 | 7 x $8M |
| 9 | Brandon Montour | RD | 30 | FLA | $3.5M | 66 | 8 | 33 | 7 x $8.7M |
| 10 | Matt Duchene | C/RW | 33 | DAL | $3M | 80 | 25 | 65 | 3 x $6.5M |
| 11 | Matt Roy | RD | 29 | LAK | $3.15M | 81 | 5 | 25 | 4 x $5.5M |
| 12 | Brett Pesce | RD | 30 | CAR | $4.03M | 70 | 3 | 13 | 6 x $6.7M |
| 13 | Teuvo Teravainen | LW | 30 | CAR | $5.4M | 76 | 25 | 53 | 5 x $6.3M |
| 14 | Tyler Bertuzzi | LW | 29 | TOR | $5.5M | 80 | 21 | 43 | 5 x $6M |
| 15 | Nikita Zadorov | LD | 29 | VAN | $3.75M | 75 | 6 | 20 | 4 x $5M |
| 16 | Chandler Stevenson | C | 30 | VGK | $2.75M | 75 | 16 | 51 | 5 x $5.7M |
| 17 | Tyler Toffoli | RW | 32 | WPG | $4.25M | 79 | 33 | 55 | 5 x $6.5M |
| 18 | Jonathan Drouin | LW | 29 | COL | $825K | 79 | 19 | 56 | 4 X $4.5M |
| 19 | Max Domi | RW | 29 | TOR | $3M | 80 | 9 | 47 | 3 x $4.2M |
| 20 | Sean Walker | RD | 30 | COL | $2.65M | 81 | 10 | 29 | 4 x $4.8M |
| 21 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson | LD | 33 | FLA | $2.25M | 80 | 9 | 32 | 3 x $3.7M |
| 22 | Dakota Joshua | LW | 28 | VAN | $825K | 63 | 18 | 32 | 3 x $3M |
| 23 | Vladimir Tarasenko | RW | 33 | FLA | $5M | 76 | 23 | 55 | 3 x $5.6M |
| 24 | Jalen Chatfield | RD | 28 | CAR | $763K | 72 | 8 | 22 | 3 x $2.7M |
| 25 | Jake DeBrusk | LW | 28 | BOS | $4M | 80 | 19 | 40 | 5 x $6M |
| 26 | Alexandre Carrier | RD | 30 | NSH | $2.5M | 73 | 4 | 20 | 3 x $2.7M |
| 27 | Shayne Gostisbehere | LD | 31 | DET | $4.13M | 81 | 10 | 56 | 3 x $4.4M |
| 28 | Sean Monahan | C | 30 | WPG | $2M | 83 | 26 | 59 | 3 x $2.9M |
| 29 | Anthony Duclair | LW | 29 | TBL | $3M | 73 | 24 | 42 | 3 x $3.25M |
| 30 | Yakov Trenin | LW/C | 28 | COL | $1.7M | 76 | 12 | 17 | 3 x $3.3M |
| 31 | Alex Nedeljkovic | G | 29 | PIT | $1.5M | 38 | 2.96 | .902 | 2 x $2M |
| 32 | David Perron | RW | 36 | DET | $4.75M | 76 | 17 | 47 | 2 x 2.8M |
| 33 | Viktor Arvidsson | RW | 31 | LAK | $4.25M | 18 | 6 | 15 | n/a |
| 34 | Brenden Dillon | LD | 34 | WPG | $3.9M | 77 | 8 | 20 | 2 x $3.9M |
| 35 | Ian Cole | LD | 35 | VAN | $3M | 78 | 2 | 11 | 2 x $3M |
| 36 | Tyler Myers | RD | 34 | VAN | $6M | 77 | 5 | 29 | 2 x 2.7M |
| 37 | Jason Zucker | LW | 32 | NSH | $5.3M | 69 | 14 | 32 | 3 x $5.4M |
| 38 | Matt Dumba | RD | 30 | TBL | $3.9M | 76 | 4 | 12 | 3 x $3.7M |
| 39 | Alex Wennberg | C | 30 | NYR | $4.5M | 79 | 10 | 30 | 4 x $4.2M |
| 40 | Dylan DeMelo | RD | 31 | WPG | $3M | 82 | 3 | 31 | 4 x $5M |
| 41 | Matt Grzelcyk | LD | 31 | BOS | $3.7M | 63 | 2 | 11 | 3 x $4M |
| 42 | Chris Tanev | RD | 35 | DAL | $4.5M | 75 | 2 | 19 | 3 x $4.7M |
| 43 | Erik Gustafsson | LD | 32 | NYR | $825K | 76 | 6 | 31 | 3 x $5M |
| 44 | Daniel Sprong | RW | 27 | DET | $2M | 76 | 18 | 43 | 3 x $3.8M |
| 45 | Kaapo Kahkonen | G | 28 | NJD | $2.75M | 37 | 3.64 | .898 | 2 x $3M |
| 46 | Teddy Blueger | C | 30 | VAN | $1.9M | 68 | 6 | 28 | 2 x $2.6M |
| 47 | Jordan Martinook | LW | 32 | CAR | $1.8M | 82 | 14 | 32 | 2 x $2.8M |
| 48 | Ilya Samsonov | G | 27 | TOR | $3.55M | 40 | 3.13 | .890 | 2 x $3.25M |
| 49 | T.J. Brodie | LD | 34 | TOR | $5M | 78 | 1 | 26 | 3 x $4.8M |
| 50 | Vincent Desharnais | RD | 28 | EDM | $763K | 78 | 1 | 11 | 2 x $1.4M |
Salary cap data courtesy of CapFriendly.
Contract projections courtesy of AFP Analytics.
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