Paper Tigers: Which supposed Stanley Cup contender is a fraud?

Credit: Brad Marchand and Stuart Skinner (© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

We’re clear of the Trade Deadline now and starting to assess how teams stack up for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last week, we discussed our favorite Cup contenders. This week, we’ll reverse course.

Who looks like the biggest Paper Tiger in the league right now, and why? (Don’t consider the freefalling Red Wings an option by the way. To be a Paper Tiger you need to be higher in standings and perceived as an actual threat).

MATT LARKIN: I’m worried about the New York Rangers. I didn’t like GM Chris Drury’s Trade Deadline at all. They needed a true scoring-line right winger. Fitting the square Jack Roslovic peg into a round hole doesn’t cut it. Alex Wennberg is a decent enough replacement for Filip Chytil as the No. 3 center but brings less scoring upside. Zooming out further: while Igor Shesterkin has, predictably, caught fire after working with goalie coach Benoit Allaire over the All-Star break, the Rangers are playing weaker defense in front of him of late. Since the break, they rank bottom-five in the NHL in preventing shots, shot attempts and scoring chances on a per-60 basis at 5-on-5. I think our pal Scott Maxwell nailed it earlier this week when he claimed the Rangers were morphing back into their 2021-22 selves. Then again, that team made the Eastern Conference Final, so what do I know?

SCOTT MAXWELL: Well Matt’s already exposed my answer as the New York Rangers, and while I do think they’re the biggest example of that, I’ll shift focus to the other glaring paper tiger in the East, and that’s the Boston Bruins. With a 50.86% 5v5 expected goal share, they aren’t nearly as egregious of an outlier as the Rangers and are still a solid team, but they also shouldn’t be competing for the Presidents’ Trophy based on that play. That metric has them ranked bang-average at 16^th place, and it’s seventh among Eastern Conference teams, so needless to say, they should be more of a Wildcard team.

The Bruins are sixth in goals for per 60 minutes despite only being 20^th, 24^th, and 11^th in shots, shot attempts and expected goals for per 60, and they’re third in goals against per 60 despite being 18^th, 19^th, and 14^th in shots, shot attempts and expected goals against per 60, so it’s all the clear cut signs of a team punching above its weight. For all the talk of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ defensive woes this season, they actually rank higher than the Bruins in shot and shot attempts against per 60, and have only allowed 0.04 expected goals against per 60 more, so this Bruins team isn’t faring much better.

Ranking third in shooting percentage and second in save percentage will certainly help mask the Bruins’ issues, and some of that is justified with David Pastrnak up front and Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark in the crease, but that can only carry the team for so long. They overperformed last year as well, and that didn’t translate to playoff success, so who’s to say that a team overperforming even more and without their Selke-caliber center can’t do the same come playoff time?

MIKE GOULD: I think it’s the Edmonton Oilers, although I don’t know if it’s necessarily their players’ fault. It is the fault of general manager Ken Holland, who blew his own first-round pick on Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick from the Anaheim Ducks while some of the Oilers’ top rivals stocked up to a far greater degree. They’re likely going to end up in a playoff rematch with the Vegas Golden Knights, who beat them convincingly last year and added Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin, and Anthony Mantha ahead of last week’s deadline. That’s some masterful work by Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon. The Oilers have some truly remarkable players but their management’s reluctance to go all-out in its support of the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl core once again could end up costing them. We’re nearly a decade into the McDavid era and the Oilers still have yet to win a game past the second round of the playoffs. That’s just not acceptable on any level.

STEVEN ELLIS: Low-hanging fruit, maybe? But I’m going with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Low-hanging because just defaulting to the “Hey, look! They’ve won one playoff series in 19 years!” argument is lazy. But this team has shown enough flaws this year, once again, and I just don’t believe Sheldon Keefe can outcoach Jim Montgomery and the Boston Bruins. In many notable advanced analytic categories, Toronto finds themselves midpack. Scoring hasn’t typically been an issue with this team, and they need their defense core to step up more than ever. I also don’t love their goaltenders, either. We should expect more from Joseph Woll as he continues to get back up to speed following his injury, but they’d lose the goalie matchup against any of the other three teams in their path – Boston, Florida and the New York Islanders in the Wildcard spot.

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Paper Tigers: Which supposed Stanley Cup contender is a fraud?

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