Predicting Christian Dvorak’s next contract with the Flyers

When the Philadelphia Flyers signed center Christian Dvorak to a one-year, $5.4-million contract last summer, the expectation was nothing more than a bottom-six pivot. Coming off a 33-point campaign (just five shy of his career-best 38), Dvorak had a low offensive ceiling that kept anyone from truly getting carried away imagining how he could help the team. 

Head coach Rick Tocchet has paired Dvorak almost exclusively at the hip with fellow newcomer Trevor Zegras; they both seemingly found instant chemistry from the jump. The result? The former on pace for a career year. With nine goals and 25 points through 39 games this season, Dvorak is poised to blow past his highest prior regular season point total. The Flyers brass feel that, skating as the Flyers’ de facto No. 1 center, Dvorak has solidified their middle-six at the very least, I’ve been told.

A few weeks back I speculated on what a potential Dvorak extension could look like. I had not heard of any contract discussions at the time, but did relay that I was told that the Flyers would not ideally like to go above Dvorak’s current AAV on any potential extension. On “Saturday’s Headlines” last week, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman sparked conversation when he reported that there was mutual interest in both sides on getting a contract extension done. 

Speaking with sources the past several days, I’m told there has been no contract talks between the two sides recently. Now, this is not to refute Friedman’s report by any stretch, as I believe it to be true, but with the holiday season in full swing the past nine days or so, I’m of the belief that talks halted over the past week or so. 

In addition to the holiday season, the Flyers have been on their annual holiday West Coast swing since last Saturday. Additionally, members of the Flyers’ brass have been taking in the World Junior Championship in Minnesota since Boxing Day. All three things have contributed to a lack of contract talks over the past several days. My gut tells me the two sides will re-engage once the Flyers return home and the WJC is finished.

Based on conversations I’ve had, my feeling is that the Flyers still want to keep Dvorak’s AAV in the $5 millions. The salary cap is rising, but with Dvorak set to turn 30 next month, I don’t imagine they want to lock him in on too high of a contract number. If I was a betting man, I’d say Dvorak’s agent is looking for an AAV that starts with “6.” That may seem outrageous, but when you consider the shallow 2026 free agent pool after the slew of re-signings the last six months, you can see where supply and demand may warrant such a number.

Reading the tea leaves: any potential Dvorak extension should come in the $5.5 million to $6 million range if and when it gets done. As for the term, I have heard the Flyers would ideally like to go no less than two years, but the aforementioned supply and demand aspect of next year’s UFA crop may force them to be flexible. My best guess is a three-year term, but will the Flyers go longer if it means getting the AAV down?

Dvorak is on pace for a career year and there comes an inherent risk in re-upping a player following that. It often is a case of paying “for what was rather than what is yet to come.”

I have my reservations about re-signing Dvorak, specifically for that very reason. Additionally, the redundancy with Noah Cates and Sean Couturier (though Dvorak’s speed is a major difference from the other two) as two-way centers with limited offensive upside is a reason to be concerned. While all are more than capable players individually, is collectively paying them north than $15 million annually a wise choice?

But, if we’re being realistic, who is going to take Dvorak’s spot as the top pivot over the next two seasons? Top center prospect Jett Luchanko will go pro full-time next season, but I don’t foresee him being ready to step into a top-six role with the Flyers next year. 2025 first-round pick Jack Nesbitt is years away; he is also viewed as a “project” by many pundits. Jack Berglund has impressed the Flyers’ brass and national pundits with his play for Sweden at the WJC; the Flyers view him as a potential Michal Handzus, I’ve been told, but if and when that comes to fruition is very much in question. 

There is always the potential for an outside addition to land a 1C. While I have no doubt that the Flyers have their ears to the ground on any possibility to land such a player, they have to be realistic and assume that such an opportunity may not come about. And even if an addition like that happened in conjunction with a Dvorak extension, sliding an aging Couturier down to a fourth-line role at 5v5 (as I have been vocal about) is always an option. 

There is the option of shifting Zegras to the middle, but scoring at a point-per-game pace, so why mess with a good thing? I personally believe Zegras should’ve gotten more of an extended look at center, but if being deployed in a “hybrid” fashion gets this kind of production out of him, I can see why the Flyers don’t want to fix something that isn’t broken. 

There are risks in re-signing Dvorak, but I get the rationale behind it. If the contract stays in the three-year, $5.75 million AAV range, it will be more than fair market value to retain him given the UFA class next season. And with the Flyers playing so well this season, relatively speaking, and without a clear-cut heir apparent for the role over the next 18 months, it may be wise to keep Dvorak.