Power Play Stacks: November 29th

This is a new weekly free article, looking at special teams to find some power play stacks every Monday and Wednesday. For Premium members that read the Line-Matching articles, this may help find more of an edge when coupled with 5v5 play.

For PK stats, the ranking in brackets means “-worst”, i.e. Nashville’s 7:53 PKTOI/Gm (1st) means they have the worst mark in the league – so the lower the rank, the better they are defensively.

Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Conclusion: Boston’s PK has been fairly sound this year, even with all the injuries they’ve experienced – allowing only 16.99HDCA/60 is a very strong number, and their shots against numbers are slightly above average as well. They do allow a greater number of shots against from the right point position, which bodes well for one of Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov (who will play the right half-wall or sneak to the point) and Mikhail Sergachev on PP2; Tampa generates a boat load of shots against and a strong number of high-danger chances, so putting that all together would mean a PP stack of Kucherov-Hedman-Namestnikov (net front for rebounds) on PP1 or Sergachev-Point–Johnson on PP2. Boston has had unsustainably good goaltending on the PK, considering how poorly Tuukka Rask (starting) has played –  that number really comes from Anton Khudobin. Tampa’s PP is definitely a viable play tonight.

Boston just doesn’t generate much of anything on the power play, and are facing an above-average PK unit the Lightning have. The Bruins aren’t getting point shots through but continue to try and force them, so look elsewhere even with Brad Marchand back in the lineup.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators

Conclusion: Ottawa doesn’t take many penalties – third-least time spent on the PK – but are pretty porous in terms of shots allowed. Against the second-best shot generation PP unit, this bodes terribly for the Senators tonight, especially with Mike Condon between the pipes. Montreal doesn’t really have a great set-up on the power play, getting most of their chances from off the right half-wall and rebounds, so Andrew Shaw/Alex Galchenyuk would be in play off that first unit (possibly paired with Jeff Petry for value) and Brendan Gallagher on the second unit. Montreal does struggle a bit at turning their shots into goals, especially given how many of those shots are the high-danger variety, but are in a strong spot tonight.

Ottawa’s also in a good spot tonight, as Montreal’s PK is pretty ugly: they allow the third-most HD chances against and the 10th-most shots against/60. Ottawa’s power play has been atrocious of late, but this is one of the better match-ups they’ll see. They typically try to run the shots to the left side of the ice near the dot – the Mike Hoffman one-timer spot – so he would be the one to target, along with Matt Duchene to clean up rebounds. Erik Karlsson mans the point basically alone, and would be the one most likely to feed Hoffman or get a shot through for the rebound cleanup.

St. Louis Blues vs. Anaheim Ducks

Conclusion: Anaheim’s penalty kill is simply horrendous, propped up by good goaltending; they allow the sixth-most shots and high-danger chances against, but somehow the incredible offense of the Blues doesn’t jump off the page. STL’s power play will be in play mostly thanks to how bad Anaheim is, but the Blues sit below average in every important category here; they funnel most of their shots directly through the slot, with a touch getting handed over to the left hash for Vlad Tarasenko. The three most interesting players on this unit would be the point man, Alex Pietrangelo, Tarasenko for the one-timers from the Mike Hoffman spot, and Brayden Schenn to clean up the trash. Anaheim’s terrible in front of their own net, so any rebounds will result in some excellent scoring opportunities.

With the injuries to Anaheim, there’s no interest in their side.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets

Conclusion: Colorado is in about the same spot as St. Louis – their unit isn’t the scariest on the slate, but the Jets’ PK has been embarrassingly-bad. Allowing 10 more shots per hour than the third-worst PK unit, the Jets are also getting no help from their goaltending and allow too many high-danger chances although that number is improving every game. Colorado sits in the middle of the pack on their power play and missing Gabriel Landeskog will hurt them a touch. The Jets really struggle from the right side of the ice (Sam Girard/Mikko Rantanen) but have been keeping rebounds away from their net over their last ten games; the Avs’ targets would be Girard and Rantanen along with Nathan MacKinnon if stacking COL1, or Tyson Barrie if just looking for a PP stack.

The right side of the ice is the one to look at for the Jets, who are in a half-decent spot in this game; the WPG1 line at full-strength are the three players to really look at, as most penalty kills have keyed in on Patrik Laine to take away the one-timer from the left side of the ice – putting Wheeler, Connor and Scheifele in great spots.