Ranking the Eastern Conference Wildcard contenders by desperation
If you’ve found yourself frequently surveying the frustratingly crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture to see where your team fits in, you aren’t alone. The NHL Trade Deadline passed two weeks ago, so aside from the odd collegiate signing, no help is coming. All the anxious fans in Ottawa, Columbus, and a half-dozen other Eastern hubs can do now is hope their boys take care of business on the ice, all the while keeping an eye on the out-of-town scoreboard.
With just four teams (CAR, BUF, TBL, MTL) tracking as playoff locks (102-point pace or better) and another six in the hunt (94-point pace or better) for the four remaining slots (two automatic berths in the Metropolitan Division and both Wildcard spots), those rivals are invariably, er, various.
Though all six teams are embroiled in the same race to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, their respective postseason chases are not created equal. Read on for full breakdowns on the urgency level of every Eastern Conference Wild Card contender, complete with current point pace, playoff odds (per MoneyPuck), and a (totally subjective) desperation score out of 10.
1. Detroit Red Wings
Pace: 98.88 points
Playoff Drought: 9 seasons (2016)
Postseason Odds: 68.9%
Desperation Score: 10/10
No surprises here. If Detroit’s nine-year postseason drought weren’t already bad enough, consider the proud history of the Original Six franchise; franchise icon Steve Yzerman’s painstaking rebuild has been especially difficult to accept for a fanbase that cleared its collective April calendar for 25 consecutive years from Yzerman’s playing prime until the bitter end of the Datsyuk-Zetterberg era in 2016.
Now, the Wings are staring down the barrel of an equally historic decade-long absence from the playoffs, which would vault them into a three-way tie for the second-longest drought in league history.
Forgetting that potential embarrassment, the fact that 2025-26 got off to such a promising start (first place in Atlantic as recently as Jan. 12) for the admittedly overperforming Red Wings means the pressure to avoid one of their characteristic spring collapses is enormous.
The notoriously patient Yzerman finally reinvested in his largely homegrown roster by bringing in veteran goalie John Gibson during the summer and right-shot defenseman Justin Faulk (492 P, 22:53 ATOI in 1,046 career GP) at the deadline, but, despite Gibson’s game-stealing performances over the past three months (22-8-2, .922 SV% since Dec. 1), Detroit is coming in for one heck of a turbulent landing.
John Gibson robs Joel Farabee with the glove. Good start for the Flames early in the 1st. 🎥: Prime Video | #Flames
Ill-timed injuries to captain Dylan Larkin, underrated second-line pivot Andrew Copp and big bottom-sixer Michael Rasmussen have left the Wings bare down the middle as Columbus continues to tailgate them in the standings. Squandering their one-time division lead, along with the performances of Gibson and Norris contender Moritz Seider (47 P, 25:36 ATOI, 56.56% expected-goal share), would be a 2024-level gutpunch and could lead to some tough questions from the top of the organization on down.
2. Ottawa Senators
Pace: 94.23 points
Playoff Drought: 0 seasons (2025)
Postseason Odds: 39.3%
Desperation Score: 8/10
The Senators beat division rivals Buffalo and Detroit back to the playoffs last season, snapping an eight-year drought and finally cashing in on a roster with three borderline franchise players: German centerman Tim Stutzle, rangy blueliner Jake Sanderson, and destructive captain Brady Tkachuk. That postseason appearance ended in a frustrating six-game loss to the archrival Toronto Maple Leafs, but a taste of playoff hockey was nonetheless supposed to be a first step toward perennial appearances and eventual Cup contention for a deep, talented Ottawa group.
The Sens still have starpower, and, with elite shutdown center Shane Pinto leading one of the league’s most effective checking units in front of Sanderson, who is out week-to-week, Artem Zub, and Thomas Chabot on the blueline, they also boast one of the league’s sturdiest even-strength defenses (2.31 xGA/60, fewest in NHL). Ottawa is nonetheless chasing the eighth seed well into March due to, stop me if you’ve heard this before, shoddy goaltending.
One-time Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark looked like the solution to the Senators’ goalie graveyard last season but was laboring through the worst campaign of his career before his personal leave plunged the Canadian Tire Centre crease into chaos back in January. Since a refreshed Ullmark returned to (mostly) stop the bleeding in net (7-2-2, .898 SV% since Jan. 31), the Sens’ smothering game has begun to pay dividends in the standings.
Winger Drake Batherson and Zub are the only key Senators who are eligible for extensions in the summer. With Stutzle, Pinto, and Dylan Cozens locked in through 2030, Ottawa will continue to have some of the best center depth in the league for the foreseeable future. It’s hardly “Cup or bust” time, then. Still, tight-checking, low-event systems like head coach Travis Green’s typically come with a shelf life. His Sens would do well to go on a run before their discipline (or the outspoken Tkachuk’s patience) wanes.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets
Pace: 99.13 points
Playoff Drought: 5 seasons (2020)
Postseason Odds: 71.6%
Desperation Score: 7.5/10
This is a surprisingly high placement for the Jackets, considering all they’ve been through these past few seasons. After the post-John Tortorella wilderness years, the Mike Babcock fiasco and the devastating death of Johnny Gaudreau, you wouldn’t blame Columbus fans for being content with merely having a competitive team.
Zach Werenski’s rise to superstardom (Norris runner-up in 2025) and a talented, hardworking forward group led by former No. 3 pick Adam Fantilli and Russian sniper Kirill Marchenko were enough to give the Blue Jackets faithful just that in a year-and-a-half under Dean Evason’s tutelage. Since GM Don Waddell swapped out Evason for Rick Bowness, they’ve dared to set their sights higher.
Having added some defensive assuredness to his club’s buzzsaw of a forecheck since taking over, the well-travelled Bowness has led Columbus to a scorching 16-2-4 mark and the doorstep of a playoff seed.
One of the key driving forces behind the Blue Jackets’ multi-month heater has been their ability to get the most out of veteran acquisitions like Selke Trophy contender Charlie Coyle (55 P, +10, 17:53 ATOI), agitator Mason Marchment (12 G, 21 P in 25 GP for CBJ), and middle-six speedster Conor Garland (4 G in 6 GP for CBJ), acquired from Vancouver at the Trade Deadline. Of the three, only Garland is signed beyond this season. With captain Boone Jenner also a pending UFA (along with the 71-year-old Bowness), it will be tough to keep the band together after Fantilli and streaking Jet Greaves (5-0-2, .922 SV% since Feb. 1), both RFAs, extend. The real possibility that Columbus’s red-hot group can still rise as high as second place in the ‘Met’ should also ramp up their level of urgency.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
Pace: 101.29 points
Playoff Drought: 3 seasons (2022)
Postseason Odds: 82.2%
Desperation Score: 6/10
If these scores were only determined based on preseason expectations, the Pens would garner a big fat 0. As it turns out, GM Kyle Dubas’s focus on preparing his team for life after Sidney Crosby should never have been taken as an acknowledgement that Dubas couldn’t still build a dangerous team around the ageless wonder.
Dubas hit a trifecta of free agency home runs in signing burly wingers Anthony Mantha (26 G, 53 P in 68 GP) and Justin Brazeau (16 G, 30 P in 50 GP) along with Erik Karlsson’s steady partner Parker Wotherspoon (24 P, +13, 20:09 ATOI), all of whom are enjoying career-best seasons for rookie head coach Dan Muse. Most importantly, Dubas transformed the team’s forward spine behind Crosby with 2024-25 trade acquisition Tommy Novak and 18-year-old 2025 draft pick Ben Kindle, freeing up Evgeni Malkin to finally move to the wing full time; the 40-year-old is scoring at his best pace (51 P in 48 GP) in six years opposite Columbus castoff Egor Chinhakov (11 G, 22 P in 30 GP for PIT) on Novak’s line.
So capable are Muse’s Penguins that they came out of Crosby’s three-week MCL absence and Malkin’s five-game suspension, both of which came amid a brutal stretch of schedule, no worse for wear (2-1-2). Pittsburgh promptly dispatched the overall one-seed Colorado Avalanche in a 7-2 demolition job on Malkin’s return. They nearly repeated the trick when Crosby re-entered the lineup against the East-leading Carolina Hurricanes (6-5 OT loss) behind a virtuoso performance from Karlsson (8 P in last 3 GP).
Vintage Erik Karlsson 👀
No one knows better than Dubas that a fourth Stanley Cup for Crosby, Malkin, and Kris Letang is a long shot; Dubas’ dogged pursuit of top-60 picks and 20-something players is a reminder that the future is still the primary focus in Pittsburgh, so their ‘desperation score’ is somewhat capped. Still, earning one last run for the old-timers would galvanize a fanbase that hasn’t had anything to smile about in some time and complete the pleasant surprise of the season.
5. New York Islanders
Pace: 100.01 points
Playoff Drought: 1 season (2024)
Postseason Odds: 75.9%
Desperation Score: 4/10
Isles’ GM Mathieu Darche has taken flak for the price he paid for weathered 291-goal scorer Brayden Schenn, reopening debates over the price of winners, centers, and winners who play center. Before you crucify the former Lightning exec for forking over a first-round pick for a 34-year-old just eight months after picking wunderkid Matthew Schaefer first overall, remember that Darche effectively manages two teams.
One of them, led by rookie Cal Ritchie along with incoming prospects like William Eklund, Cole Eiserman, and Kashawn Aitcheson, is still years away from its collective prime. The other, built around all-action center Bo Horvat (30), dizzying puckhandler Mat Barzal (28), and perennial Vezina contender Ilya Sorokin (30), was a playoff staple not so long ago. The teenage phenom Schaefer (20 G, +14, 24:20 ATOI) is the key to both, and the injection of superstar talent he’s provided the latter gives Darche some license to rush things so long as he manages to hold onto Ritchie, Aitcheson, and Co.
Matthew Schaefer enters the final quarter of 2025-26 looking to continue his historic start to his career by becoming the first No. 1 pick in eight years to make the #StanleyCup Playoffs in his first NHL season. #NHLStats: media.nhl.com/public/news/19…
Even before the lottery balls went their way last summer, the Islanders, aided by some shrewd moves from the outgoing Lou Lamoriello, were already in good shape to reload their pipeline at warp speed. Stumbling into the jackpot effectively ended New York’s long-awaited rebuild before it started. Now, there’s no real downside to getting Schaefer into meaningful games as quickly as possible.
That doesn’t mean the Islanders, who are missing Alexander Romanov on defense and have heavily relied on Sorokin to stay in the race, are ready to win; they have the third-worst expected goal share (47%) at 5-on-5 of any current playoff team and the seventh-worst mark overall. The Isles’ faithful know how unlikely it is that a postseason berth is anything more than a learning experience for Schaefer, Ritchie, and Simon Holmstrom, but would nonetheless love to see Sorokin get a chance at playoff redemption; he’s been virtually unbeatable (18-7, .922 SV% since Dec. 1) after a slow start.
6. Boston Bruins
Pace: 98.88 points
Playoff Drought: 1 season (2024)
Postseason Odds: 63.3%
Desperation Score: 3/10
It was just more than a year ago that, after jettisoning longtime servants Brandon Carlo and Charlie Coyle, Boston GM Don Sweeney waived the ultimate white flag by sending captain Brad Marchand to the Florida Panthers. The Cats had, however briefly, unseated the Montreal Canadiens as B’s fans’ most hated adversary. Sweeney nevertheless handed them his longest-tenured player and, in a roundabout way, a second Stanley Cup. A team that expects to bounce right back doesn’t make those kinds of moves.
The preseason agenda for Sweeney instead would have centered around justifying Jeremy Swayman’s hefty payday after a tough season, verifying that sniper Morgan Geekie’s breakout in 2024-25 (33 G) was no fluke, re-establishing a “Bruins style” of hockey, and, above all, finally getting some productive youth into the lineup. If those were Sweeney’s priorities, then 2025-26 has been an unmitigated success.
Geekie’s booming shot has again found twine more than 30 times (34, to be exact). Hulking defenseman Nikita Zadorov has (literally) been among the biggest proponents of the Bruins’ renewed physicality and attitude, and Swayman has covered for ample growing pains along the way in between the pipes (league-best .682 quality start%). Fraser Minten, 21, and Marat Khusnutdinov, 23, acquired in the Carlo and Coyle deals, respectively, have earned the right to complete superstar David Pastrnak’s line for the stretch run.
It has been a strong debut for head coach Marco Sturm and an important sign that the Bruins can return to relevance in the near future, regardless of the end result. If there’s one reason, beyond the obvious, that the B’s would like to sneak in, it would be to justify the half-dozen times top defenseman Charlie McAvoy has busted his face this season. It was difficult to watch McAvoy struggle to enjoy a victory over the L.A. Kings he had won almost singlehandedly because he was in such pain. At the very least, all the grill work McAvoy has suffered for the cause should clear up who will wear the ‘C’ next year.
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