Re-grading the biggest moves of the 2023 NHL trade deadline, one month later
As you may very well remember, the 2023 NHL trade deadline was less of a one-day event than a one-week event.
The seven days leading up to March 3 were among the busiest in the history of the National Hockey League, with trades materializing seemingly out of nowhere and draft picks being thrown around like candy. It made for tremendous entertainment in the dead of winter.
We here at Daily Faceoff graded more than a half-dozen major deals in the seven days immediately prior to the trade deadline — and that figure doesn’t include the Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly, and Bo Horvat swaps, all of which occurred even farther in advance. It’s been a busy season!
It’s now been more than a month since the deadline passed. We’re nearly into the playoffs. And it’s high time to take a look back at a selection of five of the biggest blockbusters of February and March to see whether any of our original grades should change.
How about we start out in Boston?
Dmitry Orlov
To Boston: D Dmitry Orlov*, F Garnet Hathaway, F Andrei Svetlakov
To Washington: F Craig Smith, 2023 1st (Boston), 2025 2nd (Boston), 2024 3rd (Boston)
To Minnesota: 2023 5th (Boston)
* Washington retains 50%, Minnesota retains 25%
As he usually is, Matt Larkin was pretty much spot-on in his analysis of this one. The Bruins have continued their full-fledged dominance of the NHL since acquiring Orlov and Hathaway, entering Thursday’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs having won nine of their last 10 (and 16 of 20 since the trade).
Orlov has been nothing short of outstanding in his brief Bruins tenure, providing the club with a veritable embarrassment of riches on defense. Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Orlov have all been among the strongest defenders in the entire league over the last month, with the Bruins outshooting and outscoring their opponents by wide margins with each of them on the ice. And all three of them play huge minutes.
Hathaway is a pesky bottom-six forward (and a product of Kennebunkport, Maine) with good wheels. Like Tyler Bertuzzi, he was destined to become a Bruin. And while Boston may not necessarily be able to afford either player they acquired from Washington beyond this season, they both give the Bruins a better chance to capture their first Stanley Cup since 2011.
And if they do, the Caps’ main reward will be … the No. 32 pick in this year’s draft. Is that really good enough? Almost definitely not, but there’s good news: Washington already traded that selection for Rasmus Sandin, who’s been pretty good since arriving in D.C.
As such, we’ll leave Larkin’s original grades exactly untouched.
New grades
Boston: A+ (from A+)
Washington: C- (from C-)
Timo Meier
To New Jersey: F Timo Meier*, D Scott Harrington, D Santeri Hatakka, F Timur Ibragimov, 2024 5th (Colorado)
To San Jose: D Shakir Mukhamadullin, F Fabian Zetterlund, D Nikita Okhotiuk, F Andreas Johnsson, 2023 1st (New Jersey), 2024 2nd (New Jersey)**, 2024 7th (New Jersey)
* San Jose retains 50%
** Becomes a top-10-protected 2024 1st if New Jersey makes the 2023 Eastern Conference Final and Meier plays in 50% of the playoff games, or if New Jersey makes the 2024 Eastern Conference Final
What a doozy. That’s a lot of words to essentially say, “Timo Meier for a late 1st, a conditional 2nd, and three prospects.”
Ever since Meier signed his infamous four-year contract extension with the Sharks back on Canada Day 2019, his $10 million RFA qualifying offer has been looming above him like a dark cloud. Well, we’re rapidly approaching the day that number will truly come into play. Meier is set to finally hit restricted free agency this summer, with only one year of team control remaining before he can test the open market.
Here’s the positive news for New Jersey: Meier is damn good. The only thing working against him thus far in his Devils tenure is a lack of assists, but who really cares about them? He’s scored at a 34-goal pace in his first 17 games since the trade, and that’s while he’s been adjusting to only the second team he’s ever known in the NHL. His 62.75 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick, ranks second to Tomas Tatar on the entire Devils roster.
New Jersey is going to be one of the easiest teams in the entire league to bandwagon in the playoffs this spring. Just wait until Meier really finds his rhythm — those picks might end up being real low. At this point, I don’t even need to see an extension in hand for Meier to call this a huge win for the Devils. And while this is a pure asset volume play for the rebuilding Sharks, they’re going to need Mukhamadullin to become one heck of an NHL defenseman (which certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility) to recoup anything close to commensurate value in this one. They were in a tough spot, but the return to San Jose feels even more like quantity over quality at this point.
New grades
New Jersey: A+ (from A)
San Jose: C (from B-)
Tanner Jeannot
To Tampa Bay: F Tanner Jeannot
To Nashville: D Cal Foote, 2025 1st (Tampa Bay)*, 2024 2nd (Tampa Bay), 2023 3rd (Tampa Bay), 2023 4th (Tampa Bay), 2023 5th (Tampa Bay)
* Top-10 protected
This one still doesn’t make much sense. Jeannot may not be a pure scorer, but he’s exactly one assist up on Foote — a defensive defenseman, remember — in the month since the trade. Through his first 18 games with the Lightning, Jeannot has been held without a shot on goal 11 times.
Foote has one goal and three points in 19 games since joining the Predators. On the other side, Jeannot has one goal and four points in one fewer outing. The Lightning have been outscored 10–4 with him on the ice at full strength. The outlook ain’t great.
Jeannot undeniably throws a ton of hits and plays a style that, in theory, should be tailor-made for playoff hockey. But for five draft picks, you’d certainly like to see a bit more in the offensive zone. While it doesn’t really look like Foote is that much of a loss for the Bolts, it also doesn’t exactly feel like they gained a whole lot in Jeannot. He pretty much has to score the series-winning goal against the Maple Leafs this spring for this deal to end up being worthwhile.
The other major aspect of this is what Jeannot’s next contract will look like. He’s a pending RFA with arbitration rights and an $892,500 qualifying offer. Will the Lightning try to lock him down on a long-term deal while his value is still relatively low? Will Jeannot’s camp try to walk him straight to unrestricted free agency in 2024? There’s a lot to consider — and the biggest question of them all still pertains to whether the real Jeannot is a 24-goal scorer or a six-goal scorer. Right now, it’s looking more like the latter.
New grades
Tampa Bay: D- (from D)
Nashville: A+ (from A+)
Jakob Chychrun
To Ottawa: D Jakob Chychrun
To Arizona: 2023 1st (Ottawa)*, 2024 2nd (Washington), 2025 3rd (Ottawa)
* Becomes an unprotected 2024 1st if Ottawa wins the 2023 draft lottery
Jakob Chychrun is a tremendous player. The NHL is a much stronger league when he’s healthy. But … we’re starting to see why the Coyotes held him out of the lineup for the better part of a month before finally consummating a deal with the Senators, and why other teams may have been scared off. Chychrun’s injury history is significant, and there’s no guarantee he plays again this season (he’s been out since March 25 with a lower-body injury).
The Senators may have lottery-protected the 2023 first-round pick they gave up to acquire Chychrun, but they probably won’t end up getting it back from the Coyotes. At the time of the deal, the Sens had very slim playoff odds and were staring down the barrel of one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NHL. They’ve lost 11 of their 18 games since, with all of their upcoming opponents either locked into a playoff spot or firmly in the race.
Barring any additional moves, the Senators are on the verge of making exactly one first-round pick (Tyler Boucher) over a stretch of three consecutive non-playoff seasons. And with Alex DeBrincat’s status uncertain, plus extensions for both Tim Stützle and Artem Zub set to kick in next year, things could be about to become really expensive in Ottawa very soon — and yet, because of their lack of recent high picks, the Sens don’t have a lot of quality talent on cheap ELCs coming to fill the sizable gaps in their lineup. It’s not the end of the world, but it’s a significant concern.
The Sens badly need to make the playoffs next year or the year after to justify the aggressive trades they’ve made in an attempt to accelerate out of their rebuild. As it is, the first-rounder they’re giving up this year will likely end up in the 10-12 range. That pick is more valuable by itself than the two late firsts the Coyotes reportedly coveted from a contender. Imagine potentially having two top-10 picks in this stacked draft class.
If he can stay healthy, Chychrun should be able to give the Senators an enormous boost next season as they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time since 2017. If all goes well in Ottawa, Chychrun could be a cornerstone piece of the Senators’ defensive group for a long time. Either way, we’ll be talking about this trade for many years to come.
New grades
Ottawa: B+ (from A)
Arizona: B+ (from B)
Patrick Kane
To New York: F Patrick Kane*, D Cooper Zech
To Chicago: D Andy Welinski, D Vili Saarijarvi, 2023 2nd (New York)**, 2025 4th (New York)
To Arizona: 2025 3rd (New York)
* Chicago retains 50%, Arizona retains 25%
** Becomes a top-10-protected 2024 1st if New York makes the 2023 Eastern Conference Final
With all due respect to Larkin, I think he was a bit too charitable to the Rangers with his original Patrick Kane trade grades. While it certainly remains fair to assign some of the blame for Kane’s early-season struggles to his subpar Chicago teammates, it’s also worth noting that Kane has been on a major downward trajectory for many, many years. Sure, the Rangers didn’t give up much to get him, but they probably didn’t need to get Kane at all.
The Rangers have been decimated at 5-on-5 in terms of both shots and scoring chances with Kane on the ice. Curiously enough, Tarasenko hasn’t fared much better. Both players have produced at semi-reasonable rates in large part due to inflated on-ice shooting percentages. And with Tarasenko, there’s more reason to believe his underlying numbers will rebound. But Kane wasn’t good at all in Chicago and he’s largely continued to underwhelm on Broadway. His offense has mostly been empty calories; his defensive impacts are dreadful.
It’s easy to look back at what Kane has accomplished on the ice during his NHL career and suggest he’ll suddenly be able to pull rabbits out of his helmet once the playoffs begin (hey, stranger things have happened). But we’re coming up on eight years since Kane last helped his team reach the second round, let alone the Stanley Cup Final. If the Rangers do end up making it to the Eastern Conference Final, they’ll have to part with a future first-round pick as part of the deal for Kane — and he probably won’t be the reason they make it there. If anything, the opposite.
Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Alexis Lafrenière, and Filip Chytil are why the Rangers have gone 7–2–1 in their last 10 games. Not Kane.
New grades
New York: C+ (from A)
Chicago: B- (from C)
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