Spencer Knight is good enough to justify his contract – but it’s a gamble

Mike McKenna
Mike McKenna(MikeMcKenna56)
Spencer Knight is good enough to justify his contract – but it’s a gamble

Spencer Knight, come on down. You’re the next contestant on the new game show: We Think You’re Going To Be Awesome.

On Tuesday morning, the Panthers agreed to a three-year contract extension with Knight that will pay him $4.5 million annually. The deal kicks in next year at the start of the 2023-24 season.

I think Knight is an immensely talented goaltender capable of being a star in the NHL. But after only 36 games played, it’s really hard to predict if that will come true. Knight simply hasn’t played with enough regularity at the NHL level to know if he’s going to be worth $4.5 million a year.

Let’s be real here: the Panthers are gambling that Knight will take over the crease from incumbent No. 1 goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky sooner rather than later. There’s no way they would have committed $14.5 million of salary cap space over three seasons to two goaltenders otherwise. Florida clearly believes in the 21-year old from Connecticut.

I’ve watched Knight since junior hockey and have always been impressed with his technical ability. He plays with detail. And he can stop the puck. His .932 save percentage over two seasons at Boston College doesn’t happen without an innate ability to track the puck.

But what I see now in the NHL is still a work in progress. Last year was Knight’s first full NHL season and at times, he looked overwhelmed by the speed of the play.

Part of that was due to his depth. Knight was in the white ice too often, which I think was detrimental. He’s 6-foot-3. Playing beyond the goal crease in today’s NHL is a risky proposition due to the prevalence of traffic and lateral plays. So by mid-season, with Knight’s save percentage below .900, he was sent down to the AHL.

Over 11 games with the Charlotte Checkers, Knight went 7-4-0. But most importantly, he got to play regularly. With Bobrovsky starting the bulk of Panthers games, Knight didn’t have any chance to find his own rhythm. He needed to be in net for consecutive tilts.

Knight came back to the NHL on March 7, 2022 and looked way more comfortable. He went 10-3-1 with a .921 save percentage for the rest of the season. Granted, Knight faced a pretty weak crop of NHL teams during the stretch. But it was clear that his confidence was back.

My gut instinct is that Florida was smart to lock up Knight. They get all of this year with him on a low-dollar, entry-level contract. Then they have three more years of Knight at $4.5 million. And then another year as an RFA where the team has a degree of control. At minimum, they could qualify Knight for $4.5 million. So realistically, if things go as planned, the Panthers have Knight for the next five seasons in a cost-controlled environment.

But with certainty comes risk. I do think Knight will live up to the contract. He’s young. He’s an incredibly strong skater. And Knight has a reputation for being a steadfast learner. But the deal is almost unprecedented.

NHL teams have recently gotten in the habit of paying players for what they will do, not what they’ve done. Just look at the contract Tim Stutzle signed recently with the Ottawa Senators. But so far, rosy forecast contracts have rarely been given to goaltenders.

One strong comparable that comes to mind is Cal Petersen’s three-year contract extension that he signed after playing just 54 NHL games. The L.A. Kings agreed to pay the 27-year old netminder $5 million a year beginning with the 2022-23 season.

After a disappointing season in which Petersen’s save percentage dropped to a career-low .895 over 37 games, suddenly his deal looks questionable. The structural flaws in Petersen’s game have gradually been exposed with more playing time. Teams know how to beat him.

The Kings are stuck with Petersen’s contract. It has to work. And it’s on Petersen to up his level of play to match the dollars.

That’s where I think Knight has an advantage. His mechanics are so sound. And because of his skating ability, he’s usually square to the shooter. The small tweaks I think he needs should be manageable: better depth control, a focus on finding pucks through traffic. Young goaltenders have to learn both on the fly in pro hockey. And at 21 years old, Knight has room to grow.

But as bullish as I am on Knight, that $4.5 million price tag is daunting. Especially considering Bobrovsky has a cap hit of $10 million through the 2025-26 season. It’s hard to imagine Florida using $14.5 million of cap space on goaltending in the final two seasons of Bobrovsky’s deal.

I think if anything, Knight’s deal shows that the crease is open in Florida. Bobrovsky no longer owns it. I don’t believe the Panthers are particularly thrilled about Bobrovsky’s cap hit. And given the contractual status of each goaltender, I think it’s pretty clear that the Panthers are pushing their eggs towards Knight’s proverbial basket.

A No. 1 NHL goaltender commands at least $5 million dollars on the open market. So I’m sure Florida is betting that Knight’s deal will turn into a value play before too long. Especially if he crushes it this season.

I just think $4.5 million is hard to digest, especially considering contracts like the one Jake Oettinger just signed with Dallas for three years at $4 million per. Or Thatcher Demko at $5 million for five years. Is it really possible to say that Knight will be worth $4.5 million with such a limited NHL sample size?

Based on what I’ve seen from Knight, I do think he will live up to the deal. But there’s an awful lot of projecting and hope going on in my assessment. I’ve seen can’t-miss goaltending prospects end up out of the NHL before their careers even got started. With this contract, at least Knight knows that Florida is committed to him. Both sides need it to work.

At a price point like $3-3.5 million, I would have loved the deal. But $4.5 million is a reach. And the dollars make the contract untradeable should Knight’s progression stall at any time over the next four years.

If I was in charge of the Panthers, Knight’s contract extension would make me nervous. Just like the overall goaltending landscape of the team when you factor in the percentage of salary cap allocated to the position.

This is a life-changing deal for Knight. And it will resonate throughout the NHL when other young goalies negotiate. The contract will be used as a comparable and drive up the price of goaltending.

As a card-carrying member of the goalie union, it makes me happy to see more goalies receiving a paycheck in line with the position’s importance. But I still think contracts need to be earned, not given. And no matter how good Knight is or will be, he was given this contract. Now he has to prove his worth. The pressure is on.

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