Hear me out: Are we sleeping on Pacific Division teams as Stanley Cup threats?
Welcome to part 4 of Daily Faceoff Stanley Cup Ingredients 2025-26. To catch you up: I’ve crafted a formula consisting of seven common ingredients among recent Stanley Cup champions, using the previous 10 seasons as the sample. You can click here for a more detailed breakdown of the formula and how accurately it has predicted teams going deep in the playoffs.
Last week, we commenced the annual series by exploring the (fading!) correlation between team weight and championships. Next, we assessed how important point-per-game scorers are to capturing the Stanley Cup. Then, we examined whether elite goaltending remains as important as ever in the spring.
Now, we study the link between expected goal differential at 5-on-5 and Stanley Cups. Does play driving still predict winning in the playoffs?
Stanley Cup Ingredient #4: EXPECTED GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
“Expected goals” measure how many goals a team should score according to the quality and quantity of chances they generate. “Expected goals against” project how many a team should allow based on the quality and quantity of their opponents’ chances. The differential tells us the gap between the two; if a team has a positive expected goal differential, it should win most of the time given it generates more danger than its opponent in quality and quantity. Of course, elite goaltending can mask deficiencies in expected goal differential – which is why this metric is just one ingredient out of seven.
Ironically, the people who claim they don’t care about expected goals are the same people who talk about “getting to the dirty areas” and “clearing your net” and so on – when these are essentially what expected goal differential measures!
How have the past 10 champions performed in 5-on-5 expected goal differential, per MoneyPuck.com?
| Season | Champion | xG differential |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | 29.21 (2nd) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | 14.70 (5th) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | -19.86 (26th) |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | 22.56 (5th) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | 21.68 (3rd) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | 8.48 (11th) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | 16.72 (10th) |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | 16.02 (12th) |
| 2023-24 | Florida | 25.32 (5th) |
| 2024-25 | Florida | 31.15 (4th) |
Stanley Cup correlation: Very strong
Not much to debate here, is there? Nine of the past 10 champs ranked no worse than 12th, and six of the past 10 finished top five in the stat. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers met in consecutive Stanley Cup Finals after both finished top five in expected goal differential in each of those seasons. Teams that have the puck more and vastly outpace their opponents in scoring chances and scoring chance quality tend to win hockey games more often than not.
Now let’s look at the leaderboard in 5-on-5 expected goal differential this season, through games completed March 22:
2025-26 NHL leaders, 5-on-5 expected goal differential
1. Colorado Avalanche, 41.37
2. Carolina Hurricanes, 39.31
3. Ottawa Senators, 31.65
4. Tampa Bay Lightning, 22.40
5. Vegas Golden Knights, 20.36
6. Utah Mammoth, 14.80
7. Columbus Blue Jackets, 10.94
8. Edmonton Oilers, 10.54
9. Los Angeles Kings, 9.53
10. Anaheim Ducks, 7.12
Lots to unpack here. If you had any lingering doubts on the stat’s validity: we see three top-tier Stanley Cup contenders in the top four in the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning. But we also are reminded that the Ottawa Senators and Vegas Golden Knights have played better than their mediocre records tell us; they sit 32nd and 30th in team save percentage this season. That’s what holds them back.
Meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth and Columbus Blue Jackets appear to be legit and will carry some real upset potential if they secure Wildcard spots in their respective conferences. The most fascinating takeaway here: four Pacific Division teams in the top 10. Wait: haven’t we been told all year the Pacific is terrible, “a pillow fight” and that none of its teams would even make the playoffs in the East? The underlying data suggests we’re sleeping on these clubs, albeit they all get their results differently. The Edmonton Oilers have clearly been held back by their goaltending (Paul Coffey has improved their defense); the Los Angeles Kings defend well but don’t finish; the Anaheim Ducks create well but don’t defend well. All these Pacific clubs, including Vegas, are flawed, but all are strong in several areas and could be dangerous if they correct their problem areas in short playoff samples. If Vegas and Edmonton start getting saves, or if the Kings start finishing with Artemi Panarin augmenting their offense…these supposed laughingstock Pacific clubs could surprise.
Previous instalments of Stanley Cup Ingredients 2025
Team Weight
Point-per-game Players
Top-10 Goalie
Next up: Penalty killing efficiency
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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