Can Sweden figure out its goaltending situation before it’s too late?
The next time Sweden plays a men’s Olympic hockey game, it’ll be a do-or-die affair.
And given how this tournament has gone, it’s hard to feel confident about the playoff round. Even if they are 2-1.
For a team that most expected to challenge for gold, Sweden has struggled throughout the tournament. They found themselves trailing Italy early, allowing two goals on their first four shots against. Sweden then fell completely flat against the Finns in a 4-1 loss that showed that the Tre Kronor just didn’t look up to par. And while they knew Slovakia would put up a fight as they looked to win Group B, the Swedes still had a significantly better team on paper. Sweden won, but they squandered away top spot in Group B as a result.
The lineup challenges have been heavily criticized, and rightfully so. Thankfully, a lot of the big stars showed up against Slovakia. But right now, goaltending still looks to be the team’s biggest question mark.
Nobody expected three straight shutouts. But they expected much, much better. With a save percentage of .889 and a goals saved above average of -1.5, it’s hard to argue that Filip Gustavasson hasn’t been one of the worst goaltenders in Milano, regardless of team. He started off way too slowly in both games, which forced his squad to play catch-up.
Jacob Markström was better overall against Slovakia, but he still allowed a few goals he shouldn’t have. He also got lucky that a shot that trickled past him in the first period didn’t fully cross the goal line. The third goal – the one that prevented the Swedes from locking up top spot – wasn’t great, either. To give Slovakia credit, it was a power-play marker, and a huge one at that. But Markström seemed to struggle with getting control of the puck down low all game long. In his case, he has a GSAA of -0.38, albeit after just one game.
But, as New Jersey Devils fans were quick to point out on Saturday, that felt like the true Markström experience. When he’s busy and has to be great, he’s capable of it. Markström is 5-2-0 in the NHL when he has made at least 30 saves this year. But when he’s off, he’s really off – he has allowed four or more goals seven times this year, including eight in one game and nine in another.
So, again, can Sweden feel confident in their goaltending? The numbers aren’t great, that’s for sure.
Based on the three games so far, they could go back to Markström again for the first knockout stage game. But can he really get the job done?
There’s a legit argument to be made that letting your goalie get back in net after a weak performance can be a positive. Gustavsson allowed two weak goals against Italy, but then shut the door the rest of the way. It was good to see that. But he didn’t do himself many favors against Finland with a couple of bad looks. The team itself was awful, and deserved that 4-1 loss. But when you can’t rely on your goalie, it doesn’t help, either.
We’ve seen some goalies play entire tournaments without leaving the net. Juuse Saros has carried the mail for Finland, and, arguably, was the difference-maker against the Swedes. Sweden has been outperformed in net in all three games. It’s just the reality of this group. If Sweden felt confident in any of their options, they could have easily ridden them three straight games to keep them in the groove. Instead, it feels like they’re entering the most important part without a true answer.
Had Linus Ullmark managed to find his former Vezina Trophy glory this season, maybe the goaltending situation would have been easier. Maybe they should have gone with Jesper Wallstedt – the hot hand – from the get-go. Either way, with the short round-robin over and done with, there’s no more time for experimenting.
Canada’s goaltending was a big question mark heading into Milano. But through two games, both Jordan Binnington and Logan Thompson have been excellent. For the contenders, you just need your netminders to limit the ugly goals and not lose the game on their own. You can’t say Sweden’s goaltending lost them that game against Finland, because they only scored one goal. But your own goalie can’t be the worst option on the ice every single night and expect to win when it matters.
While Gustavsson was the starter to kick off the tournament, it might be time to put Markström back in the crease. Sweden played its best game with him in net, period. Will it bite them in the butt? Maybe, but they’ve got to throw trust in someone. Sweden is a good team, and they’re coming off their best game yet. As long as one of their goalies can figure it out, they’ll be fine.
But that’s easier said than done.
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