Who’s in, who’s out, a month before Team USA’s final Olympic roster cuts?
Death, taxes and endless projections for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Well, at least until all the countries’ rosters are announced. As a Canadian pundit (and fan), I have spent my fair share of time endlessly drawing up mock lineups for Team Canada. Lately my attention has shifted to Team USA, who is expected to be the biggest adversary to challenge Canada’s bid for a fifth consecutive win in international best-on-best competition dating back to the 2010 Winter Olympics.
But what if instead of drawing up our subjective lineups we tried to forecast what the teams will actually look like?
I decided to reach out to Team USA sources to try and figure out which way the wind is blowing as far as roster decisions go. Using DFO’s Matt Larkin’s mock-lineup as a starting point, I went position by position when asking American sources questions as to how this team could look when all is said and done.
Though getting the full roster was never going to happen – and there are still several decisions left to be made for all countries internally before everything is finalized – this is my best intel as to what Team USA’s roster could look like in two and a half month’s time in Italy.
Forwards
There shouldn’t be any shock as to who the main faces will be up front for the Americans. Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Auston Matthews, the Tkachuk brothers – four of the five have already been named to the team. Hughes, though injured at the moment, is someone I’d be shocked to see left off the final roster.
A lot has been made of Team USA’s depth pieces from last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off, specifically Brock Nelson and Vincent Trocheck. Many pundits (including Larkin in his piece) have the aforementioned forwards left off the club for the upcoming winter games; I’d say not so fast.
According to Team USA sources, Nelson and Trocheck are pretty much “locks” to make the team as of right now. Both players’ versatility is the biggest reason for this, I’m told, with the ability to play at wing and center along with being able to move up and down the lineup in various roles. Nelson, in particular, was pointed out to be as being very malleable throughout the lineup, currently playing on both the power play and penalty kill for the Colorado Avalanche.
Though he was scratched in the gold medal game last year, Kyle Connor is a name I expect back as well. Speaking with sources, the Americans feel like they “made a mistake” last year with Connor’s usage. Given yet another highly productive start to the season for Connor (28 points in 22 games with the Winnipeg Jets) I get the sense that Connor will not only be there come February but will also get a significant look in a premier role for Team USA.
Among those who missed out on last year’s team, I’d say Clayton Keller has done the most to help his chances this year, based on conversations I’ve had with sources. Keller has registered 21 points through 24 games with the Utah Mammoth this season while skating on the team’s top line and power play unit. He is also versatile in the eyes of Team USA management, being able to play down the middle if need be.
So who among last year’s forwards are potentially at risk of losing their jobs? Speaking with a team source, it was said to me there is one forward in particular who has definitively played himself off the roster. While the source did not specify, my thought went immediately to New York Rangers captain J.T. Miller, who has just six goals and seven assists through 23 games this season.
So who does that leave from the 4 Nations Face-Off roster? Matt Boldy, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel and Dylan Larkin. Given Guerin’s emphasis on being a hard to play against, tough checking team, it may give Boldy and Kreider inside tracks to keep their respective spots. Guentzel and Larkin have had great respective seasons, but could they be at risk if other players are to push?
Guerin told the Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, “No matter (what) their offensive gifts are, if you can’t check, it’s probably not the tournament for you,” presumably referring to forwards Cole Caufield, Logan Cooley and Jason Robertson. In addition to names like Tage Thompson (who was brought in as a substitute last year mid-tournament) and Alex Tuch, the aforementioned three forwards can be classified as “in the mix,” according to sources.
One interesting name who I thought had more of an inside track but may be more of a long shot to this point? Toronto Maple Leafs power forward Matthew Knies. Knies, who has 23 points in 20 games, has not overly impressed the American brass in recent weeks – he has been battling an injury since training camp and just returned to game play – after a hot start to the season, by the sounds of it.
To summarize: based on everything I’ve heard, the only concrete change I would expect is Keller coming in and Miller coming out. Beyond that, my best guess is that there are two spots (along with the additional 14th forward compared to last winter) up for grabs.
Defense
This is an area where I don’t expect a lot of change compared to the 4 Nations. Quinn Hughes (who missed last winter’s tournament) and Charlie McAvoy have already been named to the team. Additionally, I would say Brock Faber, Jaccob Slavin and Zach Werenski are fairly safe bets to return to Team USA’s roster. The Slavin-Faber pair was heavily used in a shutdown role, while Werenski continues to perform like a top-five defenseman in the NHL.
That leaves Adam Fox, Noah Hanifin and Jake Sanderson from last year’s team. I flat out asked a Team USA source if bringing back all eight defensemen could be possible. “Not likely,” was the response. While all three could be on the bubble, I wonder about Fox because of his poor showing at the 4 Nations.
All three have had good starts to the season, specifically Fox from an offensive perspective with 22 points in 25 games, but is that what Team USA needs from their depth blueliners?. Given Hughes and Werenski (presumably) being ahead of him in terms of power play usage and offensive deployment, could there be a redundancy in bringing Fox? Speculatively speaking, perhaps a shutdown guy like Hanifin or an all-around rearguard like Sanderson would be better suited lower in the lineup for the Americans.
Among defensemen in the mix, Seth Jones of the Florida Panthers and Jackson LaCombe of the Anaheim Ducks are two names I was told. I have wondered about John Carlson, Cam Fowler and Lane Hutson, but none seems to be seriously in contention, based on conversations I’ve had.
To summarize: it feels like one or two spots are up for grabs. My hunch is that Fox is the one most in danger of losing his spot, but that is nothing more than my personal opinion and connecting dots.
Goaltending
Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman – end of discussion. I was told that Thatcher Demko had an outside chance at the beginning of the season, but his injury concerns are too big of a risk for the Americans to fix something that isn’t broken.
One thing that did surprise me: it sounds like there has been very little to no consideration for Spencer Knight of the Chicago Blackhawks and Dustin Wolf of the Calgary Flames. Perhaps their respective lack of playoff/pressure cooker experiences played a factor?
To summarize: expect the same three goaltenders back.
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