Three teams and three players off to hot starts that won’t last
Every NHL season, the first month to month-and-a-half are always the toughest to navigate and analyze. With such a small sample size to work from, there is a lot of noise, and very few conclusions can be made, as we’re only just starting to see what teams and players are capable of this season.
But one thing we can start to look into is the sustainability of some of these performances. Teams and players get off to surprisingly hot or cold starts all the time, but while some of them are a product of adjustments made in the offseason or natural development, some of them are also just a product of luck on either side of the coin. But the signs that it’s the latter and not the former are still easy to find in the early going of the season.
With that, I’m going to dive into three teams and three players who are starting the season with surprisingly hot starts but are benefitting from good luck and will likely see their unsustainable performances regress to normal at some point this season.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks haven’t exactly been world beaters with their 4-3-2 record to start the year, but they’ve still been a surprise. The Blackhawks’ top forwards have produced well so far, led by steps forward from Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar, and that’s put Chicago in playoff contention thus far… or at least not immediately out of contention.
Right now, the Blackhawks have a league-leading 59.45% 5v5 goal share, which is a significant jump on their 36.45% and 41.81% rates in the prior two seasons of the Bedard era. However, their 5v5 expected goal share has not changed in that time. 44.94% is an improvement on 40.72% and 43.37%, but not enough to justify their current goal share. A second-place 5v5 shooting percentage (12.4%) and seventh-place 5v5 save percentage (92.48%) have been the driving forces in their performances, something that will eventually regress.
Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators
Pinto has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, flying out of the gate with goals in five of his first six games, and seven in total in that span. He’s already cooled down since then with just one goal in his last five games, but eight goals has him 13 behind his career high with 71 games left to play, and he’s currently one goal off the league lead.
Unexpected players getting off to hot starts and putting pucks in the net more than usual is far from a new circumstance, and Pinto is no different. With a 24.2% shooting percentage, he’s almost doubled his career rate of 13.1%, so while it’s within the realm of possibility he rides out this performance to a career-best total (see Frank Vatrano in 2023-24), this goal pace isn’t what should be expected from Pinto for the rest of his career.
Justin Brazeau, Pittsburgh Penguins
Brazeau’s 6-foot-5 frame and moderate productivity last season with 11 goals and 22 points in 76 games with the Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild had already made him an interesting commodity for NHL teams looking to find their answer to what the Florida Panthers have rolled out the last three years. So the Penguins signing him to a two-year contract at a $1.5-million cap hit made for some solid value, and he’s added even more value to that with six goals and 12 points in 11 games.
Brazeau has proven to be a great complementary piece to Evgeni Malkin amidst a resurgent season from the Russian, but it also means Brazeau’s performance isn’t solely one of merit. With a 28.57% individual SH% and a 20.17% on-ice SH%, he’s seeing the puck go in the net when he’s on the ice, and it’s not sustainable. Malkin is already getting lucky himself (12.5 individual SH%, 19.85% on-ice SH%), and since he’s the main offensive driver of this line, when he dips off, so will Brazeau.
Seattle Kraken
Much like the Blackhawks, the Kraken aren’t exactly blowing away the competition with a 5-2-3 record, but many came into the season expecting them to struggle and possibly contend for the lottery. But with a few of the veterans in Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle and Brandon Montour producing, Shane Wright taking a step forward, and Joey Daccord looking as good as ever in the crease, the Kraken find themselves in second place in a struggling Pacific Division for the time being.
The Kraken only sit in 14th in 5v5 GF% at 52.75%, so they aren’t outscoring their competition at a dominant rate like the Blackhawks are, but a 41.91% 5v5 xGF% is a massive drop off, with that rate being the second-worst in the league. While the aforementioned Daccord is covering up for a middling defense with his 4.14 5v5 goals saved above expected, it’s their 1.89 5v5 xGF per 60 minutes that really hurts their overall performance. Along with that, a 3-0-3 record in one-goal games means their record is better than it should be, and regulation losses in that scenario should be expected at some point.
Nick Schmaltz, Utah Mammoth
Who else had Nick Schmaltz tied for second in scoring to start the season? While Schmaltz has always been an underrated player in his career in terms of production, this is a completely different level. With 17 points in 11 games, he’s on pace for 126 points, which is exactly twice as many as his previous career high of 63 set last season. Even with the early success of the Mammoth, this type of performance just feels a bit too good to be true.
It’s not that Schmaltz hasn’t been excellent in his own right. His line with Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayton may be clicking at a 65.52% 5v5 xGF%, but it’s just not good enough to justify a 72.33% 5v5 GF%. With a 17.95% individual SH% and a 16.41% on-ice SH%, Schmaltz has seen the puck bounce in his favor in the early going, driving his surprising point totals thus far. But with him set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, the longer he can maintain this, the richer he’s going to get.
Winnipeg Jets
In 2024-25, the Jets overperformed to start the season with a 15-1-0 record despite underlying numbers that had them just as a regular playoff team. This season, the Jets aren’t nearly as hot to start the season with a 7-3-0 record, but they are still vastly overperforming that. While their 50.07% 5v5 GF% barely constitutes as an overperformance out of context, a league-worst 41.34% 5v5 xGF% is an alarming performance.
The Jets have always been a team that overperforms their metrics. Having the best goaltender in the league in Connor Hellebuyck (4.1 5v5 GSAx) will certainly help with that, and their two star players in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor constantly producing in spite of poor play-driving numbers only add to that, but the Jets have never performed this poorly either. Speaking of Scheifele, he’s also on an unsustainable heater himself with eight goals in 10 games, shooting 29.6% in the process.
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