Top 10 restricted free agents of 2022: Part 1 (6-10)

Chris Gear
Chris Gear
Top 10 restricted free agents of 2022: Part 1 (6-10)

In a cap world, controlling your player salaries is critical to building a competitive roster. The concept of restricted free agency was put into the NHL collective bargaining agreement to help teams accomplish that. Subject to some exceptions relating to age and games played, the RFA system gives teams approximately four seasons of control over a player beyond his entry-level years. After that, a player can control his own destiny, and price tag, in unrestricted free agency.

RFAs only have two ways to leverage fair payment for their services. The first is to take a team to salary arbitration, a right that RFAs acquire at certain points in their career depending on eligibility criteria that include age and experience. The other is to withhold services, a strategy that we have seen with increasing frequency over the years from players without arbitration rights, including William Nylander of the Toronto Maple leafs, Mathew Barzal of the New York Islanders and Brady Tkachuk of the Ottawa Senators.

For many years after the introduction of the RFA concept, teams used their CBA rights to keep RFA salaries down, typically offering bridge deals that were far below the deals for comparable players who had achieved UFA status. Recently, however, the tables have turned, and whether it is due to the threat of holdouts or the realization that paying for players in their primes is preferable to paying for UFAs who may be leaving their primes, RFAs are now commanding massive deals.

This is the first instalment of a two-part piece in which I’ll count down what I view as the 10 most critical RFA negotiations to watch this off-season, in ascending order of how high their AAVs could go. Here are the first five:

10. Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars

Oettinger had a very solid regular season, earning the starter’s job over veterans Braden Holtby and Scott Wedgewood. Oettinger then followed it up with a spectacular round 1 playoff series against Calgary, almost singlehandedly giving the Stars an opportunity to steal the series before they ultimately fell in seven games. He sported a .954 save percentage in the seven games, somewhat reminiscent of Thatcher Demko’s .985 in the 2019-20 playoffs, a performance that cemented Demko as the Vancouver Canucks’ No. 1 goalie and later helped earn him a five-year deal. Teams are generally cautious with early goaltender success and don’t usually reward goalies with long-term deals out of the entry-level system. Even Jordan Binnington’s Stanley Cup winning performance only netted him a two-year deal at $4.4 million per year before he earned his current six-year contract. Oettinger is still very young, at 23, and won’t have arbitration rights. I would expect a bridge here, too. My projection: 2 years, $3.8M per year

9. Tony DeAngelo, D, Carolina Hurricanes

The DeAngelo situation is very interesting indeed. Carolina got a bargain by signing him to a one year, $1-million deal when it seemed no other NHL team was prepared to touch him after he was dismissed by the New York Rangers. DeAngelo appears to have stayed out of trouble, and he has fit in well with the Hurricanes. His 51 points this season had him tied for 15th in NHL defenseman scoring, and those numbers were depressed by the fact he missed 18 games. DeAngelo will have arbitration rights, so Carolina will have to pay him this time around. One limiting factor is that he plays the fourth most minutes on Carolina’s blueline, behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei, all of whom have below-market cap hits. That, and Carolina’s willingness to have taken a chance on him, should bode well for DeAngelo agreeing to a reasonable deal to stick around without the sides having to go to arbitration.  My projection: 4 years, $6.0M per year

8. Jesper Bratt, LW, New Jersey Devils

Bratt had a breakthrough year in 2021-22, leading the Devils in scoring with 73 points in 76 games. He scored as many goals (26) as soon-to-be $8-million teammate Jack Hughes and had more points than Hughes and $7.25-million teammate Nico Hischier. Bratt massively out-performed his $2.75-million-per-year deal and will have arbitration rights. My guess is that the Devils will be a little cautious here and will want to see Bratt back up this season’s numbers with another strong performance next season before they call in the money truck and put him in the same salary category as Hughes and Hischier. When a player who already had 200 NHL games under his belt suddenly emerges the way Bratt did, you have to wonder whether his numbers have been elevated by high minutes and good offensive assignments with good linemates on a struggling team. I’m not saying that’s the case with Bratt, but another year would give the Devils more certainty of what they have. The Devils do have sufficient cap space to give him a long-term deal in the $6-$7-million range, but I see this as one where the team might do a one-year settlement to avoid arbitration and see if Bratt regresses a little. Maybe use the Kevin Fiala one-year deal in Minnesota as a precedent, although, as we will see in part 2 of this list, that didn’t necessarily work out so well for the Wild. My projection: 1 year, $5.15M or 6 years, $6.33M per year

7.  Josh Norris, C, Ottawa Senators

Norris is part of a very dangerous forward group in Ottawa that just keeps getting better. The sniper’s 35 goals led all Senators players and his 55 points were third on the team. He may have even led the team in scoring if he had played more than 66 games. Norris won’t have arbitration rights, but that didn’t stop Ottawa from extending Thomas Chabot for eight years, Brady Tkachuk for seven years and Drake Batherson for six years out of their respective entry-level deals. The Sens have the cap space to lock up Norris this year and Tim Stutzle next year, and it is likely their plan to do just that and then continue to build around that core. The Senators should be able to wait for a number they like since Norris can’t take them to arbitration, but the Sens also won’t want to let one of the league’s brightest young goal scorers feel disrespected by their offers, lest he start thinking about his next destination and become another Nick Paul situation. Count on more than $6 million as a starting point for any deal with significant term. My projection: 6 years, $7M per year

6. Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks

Boeser will be the subject of one of the most interesting RFA negotiations in an off-season for the second time in his career. After scoring 75 goals in his first 197 games, the first negotiation resulted in him earning a three-year deal from the Canucks in 2019 that paid him $5.875 million per year through this past season. That deal came on the heels of Timo Meier signing a four-year, $6-million-per-year deal with a $10-million salary in the fourth year. Both deals took place prior to the 2020 change to the CBA that now limits qualifying offers to no more than 20 percent higher than a contract’s average annual value. At the time, it meant Meier’s qualifying offer would be $10 million, a nuance that became relevant to the Boeser negotiation. In order to settle at a lower AAV, the Canucks agreed to give Boeser a $7.5-million salary in the final year of the deal, a far cry from Meier’s $10 million but still a healthy qualifying offer number. Boeser’s entitlement to that qualifying offer has now been talk show fodder in Vancouver for almost a year, if not longer.

Boeser is still a big part of the Canucks’ offense and a fan favorite, but he hasn’t been able to replicate the numbers he put up during his entry-level contract. In the three seasons of his bridge deal, he has battled injuries and has been limited to 16, 23 and 23 goals. Factoring in that two of those seasons came on shortened schedules, his production still amounts to 27.6 goals per 82 games over that span. Solid, but perhaps not quite on par with the $7.5-million qualifying offer number. There seem to be four possible outcomes to the Boeser drama. First, the parties could negotiate a deal with some term at a number below the Q.O. That depends on whether Canucks’ management sees Boeser as a long-term fit in Vancouver. Second, the team could accept the fate of the Q.O and sign Boeser to a one-year deal at $7.5 million and then decide on his future over the course of next season. Canucks’ president Jim Rutherford has publicly stated he is not opposed to doing just that, but he is also on record as saying the Canucks are trying to find ways to shave off cap space. That leads to the third and fourth options. The club could take Boeser to team-elected salary arbitration, where an award as low as 85 percent of the qualifying offer (or $6.375 million) can be sought by the team (a number that could be used as leverage to lower the AAV in an option No. 1 signing). Or the club could trade Boeser before the Q.O. deadline, but any team acquiring him would face the same dilemma. In any event, the Boeser situation will be interesting. My projection: Get your popcorn ready (and pencil in Timo Meier as next year’s most interesting RFA negotiation).

I’ll look at the top 5 most critical RFA negotiations in the next instalment. Stay tuned.

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Chris Gear joined Daily Faceoff in January after a 12-year run with the Vancouver Canucks, most recently as the club’s Assistant General Manager and Chief Legal Officer. Before migrating over to the hockey operations department, where his responsibilities included contract negotiations, CBA compliance, assisting with roster and salary cap management and governance for the AHL franchise, Gear was the Canucks’ vice president and general counsel.

Click here to read Gear’s other Daily Faceoff stories.

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