The top 10 Hart Trophy candidates for 2026-27
The NHL’s MVP race seems to get murkier by the year, with the Professional Hockey Writers Association battling itself over whether to award the Hart Trophy to the player most valuable to his team or the best player, period. Some seasons, those two traits are very different, such as 2017-18, when Taylor Hall won the MVP carrying the New Jersey Devils to the playoffs when he clearly wasn’t the most talented player in the NHL. Other years, the choice looks easier, such as last season, when Connor McDavid led the league in scoring and took a shorthanded Edmonton Oilers team on his b— *listens to earpiece* – hold on – I’m told McDavid did not, I repeat did not win the MVP last year. It went to Nikita Kucherov, who didn’t lead the league in scoring and played on a superior Tampa Bay Lightning team, while McDavid won the Ted Lindsay Award for most outstanding player as voted by the players. OK, then.
So it appears, and I say this lovingly as a PHWA member, that we can’t agree on the standards that make an MVP. Heck, Gabriel Landeskog of the Colorado Avalanche received a fifth-place vote last year (!?). That means predicting the winner for 2026-27 won’t be easy. But we at least have a strong sense of who the top contenders are, with one quartet occupying its own tier.
Here are my top 10 Hart candidates, with bet365 Sportsbook odds included.
10. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets (+15000)
Hellebuyck won the Hart the season before last, becoming the third goalie to nab MVP honors this century after Jose Theodore and Carey Price. But while Hellebuyck gave a legendary performance to help Team USA win gold at the 2026 Olympics, he couldn’t stop Winnipeg tumbling from a Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25 to out of the playoffs in 2025-26. Hellebuyck only graded out slightly above average in goals saved above expected per 60 last season. He was roughly as good as Philipp Grubauer on a minute-to-minute basis, to put the regression in perspective. So why list Hellebuyck as a Hart candidate now? Because he’s only a year removed from best-in-the-world status and, on a Jets team that hasn’t improved much if at all this offseason, any turnaround would be fuelled by a resurgent Hellebuyck campaign, which would put him squarely in the MVP race if he can get the Jets back into the postseason. We also might see Hellebuyck flourish on a new team if dealt; winning a Hart after a mid-season trade would be unlikely, but it has happened before, as Joe Thornton did it in 2005-06.
9. Leo Carlsson, C, Anaheim Ducks (+15000)
He’s an $18-million player now, thanks to the Philadelphia Flyers’ offer sheet, making Carlsson the highest-paid NHLer until Macklin Celebrini’s extension kicks in next season. Carlsson, then, is earning Hart Trophy money. As a dominant offensive play driver on a Ducks team that lost a ton of important personnel in a nightmare offseason, Carlsson will have to be one of the league’s most elite centers if the Ducks are to remain a contender going forward. Still just 21, he’s barely even approaching his prime years, and he’s already roughly a point-per-game player. That suggests his ceiling is indeed that of an MVP threat, especially if his defense can catch up to his offense. If Carlsson can break through as a 100-point monster up the middle this season, he’ll earn some Hart consideration.
8. Matthew Schaefer, D, New York Islanders (+10000)
The best Hart candidates check the “badly needed by his team” and “straight-up awesome player” boxes simultaneously. That feels like Schaefer. Just 19 years old and one season into his career, he’s already the Isles’ most important player, fresh off tying the NHL rookie record for goals by a defenseman. He’ll play 25 minutes a night, he’ll likely accomplish several more things we’ve never seen from a teenaged blueliner and, if the Isles can bust out as a playoff team, he’ll be the No. 1 reason why. No defenseman has won the Hart since Chris Pronger in 1999-00, but Schaefer’s setup makes him a sleeper candidate. Even as a rookie, he earned four fifth-place votes, by the way.
7. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (+1500)
It’s possible, maybe even probable, that we’ve seen Matthews’ peak as a player. He earned the Hart in 2021-22, and he delivered a 69-goal campaign while also finishing third in the Selke Trophy vote in 2023-24. The past couple seasons have brought major injury woes in the form of a nagging upper-body ailment that shortened his 2025-26 to 67 games and a season-ending knee injury in his 60th game of 2026-27. Matthews is a long shot for the Hart due to his struggles to stay healthy and, perhaps, his declined state of play even when supposedly healthy and in the lineup. But there’s still a chance new Leafs head coach Jim Hiller allows Matthews to focus on offense rather than shouldering a huge two-way load like he did under Craig Berube. If Matthews can play 75 games, it’s not inconceivable that he returns to elite scorer status and re-emerges as one of the game’s icons. Turning 29 next month, he’s still just young enough to have another elite-grade season in him if his body co-operates.
6. David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins (+1200)
Last season, ‘Pasta’ became the 18th player in NHL history to record four consecutive 100-point seasons. But how he got to that total this time around was fascinating. Pastrnak is one of the best snipers of his generation, sitting fourth among all players in goals over the past 10 seasons. But he has become a superb facilitator, too, setting a career high with 71 assists last season and leading all NHLers in primary assists per 60 at 5-on-5. There’s a good chance Pastrnak’s goal total rebounds from 29 to at least the 40s this season and, if he continues feathering lovely passes to his teammates, he could make a run at his career high of 113 points. Given he’s worlds better than every other Bruins skater, he’d get a lot of the credit if they make the playoffs again. He finished sixth in the MVP vote last season but has a real chance to improve on that result.
5. Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens (+3000)
The only players in NHL history to win the Selke Trophy and tally 100 or more points in the same season: Doug Gilmour, Sergei Fedorov (twice) and Suzuki, who did so last season. Hart voters gave him a fifth-place finish, acknowledging how difficult it is to be a top-tier scorer while also matching up nightly against other teams’ top scorers. If Suzuki can duplicate last year’s 200-foot effort and find one more gear to push the point total toward the 110s, that might be enough for him to legitimately crash the highest echelon of superstar Hart candidates. He has enough explosive young talents around him in Montreal that it’s possible he hasn’t maxed out.
4. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning (+400)
Kucherov will go down as one of the greatest and most underappreciated players of all-time. He’s a sublimely gifted scoring talent, a three-time Art Ross winner, and he cemented his second MVP last year. It came in a season in which he didn’t lead the league in points while also sharing a team with the Vezina Trophy winner in Andrei Vasilevskiy and the coach of the year in Jon Cooper, so the Hart nod puzzled me a bit; it almost felt like a makeup for Kucherov’s consecutive scoring titles without winning MVP in the previous two seasons. We know he’ll be in the conversation again, but back-to-back wins will prove difficult given Kucherov isn’t a complete player. He’s god-tier on offense but mediocre at best in his own zone, and some voters factor that in when breaking ties.
3. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks (+1000)
If I’m putting down an actual Hart bet for 2026-27, I lean Celebrini. Ranking him first would be a bit forced, but he’s a burgeoning 20-year-old mega talent exploding into true superstardom, and it feels like he’ll be the best player in the game a few years from now. To break through and win his first MVP, coming off his 115-point arrival, Celebrini needs the playoff berth. No one has won the Hart on a team that missed the postseason since Mario Lemieux in 1987-88 (No, the 2019-20 Oilers don’t count here for losing in the Bubble). If the Sharks can summit that mountain this season, with Celebrini challenging for the scoring title, he has a real shot to win MVP this season. Even on a non-playoff team, he finished fourth in the 2025-26 vote.
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche (+400)
MacKinnon has finished as a Hart finalist in five of his past nine seasons, winning it in 2023-24, and he’s fresh off leading the league in goals. With the Avalanche becoming top heavier by the year as they pay their stars, it falls on MacKinnon’s shoulders to be the team’s engine; he has exceeded 22 minutes per game in four consecutive seasons. He’s been relatively durable, too, missing five total games in the past three seasons. Still playing at his peak-prime elite level to boot, he’s a borderline lock to be at worst a finalist for the Hart this season.
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers (+275)
McDavid is hungry. He’s the most important player on a relatively shallow roster with playoff aspirations. He’s the best player on the planet. Really, the only thing holding back McDavid’s Hart case is the fact he somehow didn’t win it last year when he led the league in scoring and fuelled an Oilers team that lost its other superstar, Leon Draisaitl, for 17 regular-season games. It almost feels like the voting populace felt Kucherov was “due” when McDavid was the clear most valuable player; that’s my opinion, at least, as someone who had McDavid first on his ballot. It’s telling that he has five Lindsay Awards, tied for the most all-time, yet three Harts. He seemingly has to work harder than others to win the latter at this point. He’s nevertheless the safest pick for it simply because he’s a lock to play better than pretty much anyone in 2026-27.
Other 2026-27 Hart Trophy candidates to consider
Kirill Kaprizov (Min)
Leon Draisaitl (Edm)
Ilya Sorokin (NYI)
Zach Werenski (CBJ)
Cale Makar (Col)
Mitch Marner (VGK)
Quinn Hughes (Min)
Jason Robertson (Dal)
Tage Thompson (Buf)
Jack Eichel (VGK)
Jack Hughes (NJ)
Artemi Panarin (LA)
Logan Thompson (Wsh)
Cutter Gauthier (Ana)
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