Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Toronto Maple Leafs: 2nd Atlantic Division, 115 points
Tampa Bay Lightning: 3rd Atlantic Division, 110 points
Schedule (ET)
Monday, May 2, 7:30 p.m.: Tampa Bay at Toronto (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, ESPN2)
Wednesday, May 4, 7:30 p.m.: Tampa Bay at Toronto (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, ESPN2)
Friday, May 6, 7:30 p.m.: Toronto at Tampa Bay (TBS, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 8, 7 p.m.: Toronto at Tampa Bay (TBS, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Tuesday, May 10, TBD: Tampa Bay at Toronto (TBD)
*Thursday, May 12, TBD: Toronto at Tampa Bay (TBD)
*Saturday, May 14, TBD: Tampa Bay at Toronto (TBD)
The Skinny
Life in the Atlantic Division sure is rough, ain’t it? The Toronto Maple Leafs eclipsed their previous franchise record for wins in a season by five and their record for points in a season by 10. Their “reward” for the best regular season in their 104-year history? A date with the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Can the Leafs dethrone the alpha dogs and avoid bombing out in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs a sixth straight season? General manager Kyle Dubas doubled down on keeping most of his core together after last year’s disappointment, but how many more years can that happen before wholesale changes are needed in Toronto? The Lightning enter the postseason as a team that seemingly knew when to flick a switch. They went 8-3-0 over their final 11 games and dropped eight goals on the Leafs and Florida Panthers in statement victories during that stretch.
Head to Head
Toronto 2-2-0
Tampa Bay 2-1-1
It shouldn’t come as a massive surprise that two of the NHL’s most talented teams played a few track meets in 2021-22. The Leafs pummelled Tampa 6-2 in their own barn in early April, while the Lightning returned the favor with an 8-1 drubbing April 21. How much will that recent humiliation linger in the Leafs’ minds? The Leafs’ lost their cool late in that game, with Wayne Simmonds and Kyle Clifford earning supplemental discipline for their behavior. The two teams combined for 115 penalty minutes. It’s worth noting, however, that Leafs superstar Auston Matthews didn’t play in that game, nor did Toronto’s starting goaltender Jack Campbell.
Top Five Scorers
Toronto
Auston Matthews: 106 points
Mitch Marner: 97 points
William Nylander: 80 points
John Tavares: 76 points
Morgan Rielly: 68 points
Tampa Bay
Steven Stamkos: 106 points
Victor Hedman: 85 points
Nikita Kucherov: 69 points (47 GP)
Alex Killorn: 59 points
Brayden Point: 58 points
X-Factor
The Lightning are a scrappy, physical bunch. Year in, year out, they rank among the league leaders in penalty minutes and penalties taken, and this season was no exception. Only the Nashville Predators had more total PIM and penalties taken per 60 minutes. The Lightning have relied on strong penalty killing to bail them out of the sin bin. Last offseason, they lost two of their most important penalty killers in Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. They owned the NHL’s fourth-best penalty kill at 84.2 percent last season but slipped to 11th at 80.6 percent this season. Now, they face the top power-play team in the NHL. The Leafs’ power play had flatlined in recent seasons despite all their talent but, after they brought assistant coach Spencer Carbery in from the AHL’s Hershey Bears, they deployed different looks this season and finished No. 1 at 27.3 percent. The Bolts must find a way to stay out of the box since their P.K. isn’t as effective as it was.
Offense
Should we just write “awesome” and dust off our hands? It’s no secret both these teams can bury the biscuit. The Leafs have been a consistent offensive juggernaut for the Matthews/Mitch Marner era. Their 3.80 goals per game rank second in the NHL. In 5-on-5 play, they sit top-three in scoring chances per 60, high-danger chances per 60 and expected goals per 60. This season, Matthews became the first NHLer to score 60 goals in a decade and just the third this century. He’s the best pure scoring force in the history of the franchise, now a back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophy winner. He gets tremendous support from elite playmaker Marner, and the Leafs can roll more than one dangerous scoring line, with John Tavares and William Nylander sometimes working together on the second line or sometimes each driving their own line.
The Bolts can measure up too, of course. They own a top-10 power play and overall offense. Steven Stamkos is fresh off one of the best offensive seasons of his career and remains one of the few forwards in the game who can score from almost any distance in the offensive zone. Nikita Kucherov needed 0.0 warmup games before descending into Tampa’s lineup to be their best forward in the 2021 playoffs. This season, while again abbreviated by injury, gave him 47 “tuneup” games. How good will he be this time? With Victor Hedman driving the play from the back end and a still-somehow-deep forward group including Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Alex Killorn and Nick Paul, the Bolts are still capable of filling the net.
Defense
For the first several seasons of the Matthews/Marner era, the Leafs were a firewagon team that played mostly atrocious defense. That’s changed in the past couple seasons. They rank among the top 10 teams in the league in most defensive categories, including expected goals against per 60. After hiring assistant coach Dean Chynoweth away from the Carolina Hurricanes, they boast the No. 8 penalty kill in the league. They still rank 19th in goals against per game at 3.07, but that was largely because their goaltending let them down. The Bolts, anchored by a sturdy D-corps led by all-round dominator Hedman, shutdown man Ryan McDonagh and bruiser Erik Cernak, are a strong defensive club, grading out very similarly to the Leafs in limiting chances. They have far superior help in goal, however.
Goaltending
We can talk all we want about nerves and curses and the Bolts turning it on late when they needed to this season but, if we’re honest, we know this series will come down to whether Jack Campbell can measure up to the mighty Andrei Vasilevskiy or at least come close. Campbell was almost Carey Price’s equal during Toronto’s Round-1 defeat against Montreal last season, posting a .934 save percentage, but 2021-22 has been a rollercoaster. After a sizzling start that had Campbell earning Vezina Trophy chatter in the fall, he lost his confidence and battled a rib injury that ended costing him about a month. The Leafs have the lowest 5-on-5 save percentage of any team to make the playoffs this season. Campbell did find his game late in the campaign, going 7-0-2 with a .915 save percentage after returning from injury. But he’ll have to be even better than that to keep up with Vasilevskiy, the best money goaltender in the NHL and reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner. He had a merely mortal season by his standards, but his blend of size, athleticism and poise are slowly carving him a Patrick-Roy-like legacy as the goaltender you want if you need to win one game. The NHLPA Players’ Poll results this week reflect that sentiment. If Campbell falters, will Keefe consider throwing rookie Erik Kallgren into the fire?
Injuries
The Bolts enter the playoffs as healthy as they’ve been all season. The Leafs are hoping to have first-line left winger Michael Bunting back for Game 1, but the status of his undisclosed injury is in question. Defenseman Rasmus Sandin is knocking on the door of a return from a knee injury that has shelved him since March, but it would be risky to throw him into playoff action cold. Tenacious two-way winger Ondrej Kase is working his way back from concussion complications and practised this week with a full-contact sweater.
Intangibles
The Leafs are a great regular-season hockey team. Everyone knows that. Will their style of play, which favors finesse over physicality, ever translate to the playoffs? They have some sandpaper down the lineup from the likes of Simmonds, Clifford and Ilya Lyubushkin, but how many minutes will they play? The elite playoff teams get heavy hockey from their skill players – the top-nine forwards and top-four defensemen. The battle-tested Lightning are the NHL’s heaviest team, with an average weight of 207 pounds. The Leafs are 22nd at 197 pounds. The average Tampa player outweighs the average Leaf player by 10 pounds. There’s a consistent correlation between heavy teams and winning championships in recent seasons. Are the Leafs finally ready to battle in the dirty areas, or will they get steamrolled with the officials putting the whistles away?
On the other hand – how much gas do the Bolts have left? Between the 2020 bubble and 2021 postseason, they’ve played a staggering 48 playoff games in the past two years.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
What a tough break for the Leafs. They are a legitimately great team but face a Tampa squad simply built better for playoff hockey. It should be a back-and-forth series with Vasilevskiy making the difference. Lightning in 7
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