Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers: 2023 Stanley Cup Final preview and pick

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Saturday, June 3	1. Florida at Vegas	8 p.m. ET
Monday, June 5	2. Florida at Vegas	8 p.m. ET
Thursday, June 8	3. Vegas at Florida	8 p.m. ET
Saturday, June 10	4. Vegas at Florida	8 p.m ET
*Tuesday, June 13	5. Florida at Vegas	8 p.m. ET
*Friday, June 16	6. Vegas at Florida	8 p.m. ET
*Monday. June 19	7. Florida at Vegas	8 p.m. ET

The Skinny

It became official on Monday night that our long, strange trip through one of the most unpredictable postseasons in recent memory will end with the first Stanley Cup in the history of the Vegas Golden Knights or the Florida Panthers.

For most of the season, it was apparent that one of the Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, or Edmonton Oilers would represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. It is fitting that Vegas toppled the conference’s other two heavy hitters in consecutive rounds to claim that berth for itself.

The NHL’s second-youngest team has not strained to do so: the Golden Knights have not faced elimination in these playoffs and have not trailed in a series since Game 1 of their matchup with the Winnipeg Jets. When it seemed Vegas was letting a 3-0 lead slip through its fingers with back-to-back losses, a 6-0 Game 6 rout of the Stars in Dallas proved once and for all that the Knights are the best in the West. Now, they seek to become the best in the world.

The Panthers, who had a lower average attendance at home than the Columbus Blue Jackets this season and did not clinch playoff hockey until April 11, will represent the Eastern Conference. Do not let a tumultuous regular season and modest franchise history diminish what Florida has accomplished this postseason, though.

The Panthers’ relentless physicality and never-say-die attitude have coupled with the indomitable goaltending of Sergei Bobrovsky to create a playoff juggernaut. Florida has now won back-to-back-to-back series as underdogs against the 65-win Boston Bruins, star-studded Toronto Maple Leafs, and Metropolitan Division champion Carolina Hurricanes, respectively. The latter two opponents took the Cats just nine total games to dispatch, and after a sweep of the Hurricanes, the eighth-seeded team’s house money may buy a championship.

Head-to-Head

Vegas: 1-1

Florida: 1-1 

Regular season results are not particularly helpful for predictions after both teams have played this much extra hockey. That is especially true given the two-game sample size and tightness of the contests between Vegas and Florida.

Still, there is relevant information available from the season series. Vegas took the first matchup in a come-from-behind 4-2 victory on Jan. 12, while Florida won a 2-1 defensive struggle on March 4. Aleksander Barkov, Nick Cousins, and Jack Eichel were the only players from either team to record a point in both games.

Though the Golden Knights and Panthers combined to play seven different goaltenders in 10 or more games this season, presumptive Game 1 starters Bobrovsky and Adin Hill played both contests for their respective clubs.

Top Five Scorers

Vegas
Jack Eichel, 18 points
Jonathan Marchessault, 17 points
Ivan Barbashev, 15 points
Mark Stone, 15 points
William Karlsson, 14 points

Florida

Matthew Tkachuk, 21 points
Carter Verhaeghe, 15 points
Aleksander Barkov, 14 points
Sam Reinhart, 11 points
Sam Bennett, 11 points

X-Factor

If the Panthers are to win the Stanley Cup, they will need their captain Barkov to step up in a big way. It is not that ‘Sasha’ has underperformed. He has not; Barkov’s 14 points this postseason are a career high.

The reason the Finn needs to be even better against the Golden Knights is the disparity in depth scoring between the teams. Vegas has a remarkable six skaters that at least replicate Barkov’s scoring output in these playoffs. Add in the fact that they all have at least two goals more than the former-Selke winner’s four and that much more pressure reverts to Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaege to put the puck in the net.

Those three have held their end up. Tkachuk has nine goals and 21 points and increasingly looks like the second-best player in the world. Verhaeghe has followed up a breakout 42-goal regular season with six tallies in the playoffs, while seven of Reinhart’s 11 points are goals. The trio’s 22 goals account for 44 percent of Florida’s scoring this postseason. Beyond that, only Barkov, defenseman Brandon Montour (six), who hasn’t scored since Game 1 of the Toronto series, and Sam Bennett (four) have more than 3 goals.

For a team that has won nine of 12 by a single goal, relying on three skaters to convert and hoping ‘Bob’ holds up in net is a dangerous game. Yes, the problem is team-wide, and Barkov has created more than his fair share of linemate Verhaeghe’s opportunities. Still, if the Panthers fall at the final hurdle because Tkachuk stops being Superman, it is not Eric Staal that will take the blame.

Barkov is a star and will have to play like one to level the gap between his team’s bottom six and Vegas’s. Luckily for Florida, he seemed up to the challenge against Carolina. Barkov scored two goals, including a highlight reel breakaway tally in Game 2, and five points in the sweep.

Offense

The ‘X-Factor’ entry hinted at the Golden Knights’ balance on offense, but their dominance warrants further observation. There has been no stopping the Pacific Division champs, who boast six different six-goal scorers and seven different 10-point scorers. They have scored 62 playoff goals to Florida’s 50, and only the eliminated Bruins and Oilers have averaged more than their 3.65 goals per game.

It is not as though Vegas has just gotten hot at the right time, either; they had six different 50-point scorers in the regular season and would have had eight if not for injuries to captain Mark Stone and defenseman Shea Theodore.

Granted, not everything Vegas has done is sustainable. Their 12.2 shooting percentage leads all playoff teams by well over a percent and would have paced the NHL by 0.4 in the regular season; that number is sure to falter somewhat because of the form of Bobrovsky and the well-documented struggles of Stuart Skinner and Jake Oettinger over the last two rounds.

Though Chandler Stephenson (8 G on 34.8 S%), William Karlsson (10 G on 27 S%), and Ivan Barbashev (6 G on 25 S%) should probably come back down to Earth, Vegas’s ability to create high-danger chances is impressive when they are shooting this well. Factor in that Reilly Smith, Nic Roy, and Shea Theodore have combined to score three of 99 shots, and maybe the Knights are not so lucky after all.

That argument gets even stronger when the play of Jack Eichel, whose 18 points pace the team, and Jonathan Marchessault, who has scored all of his nine goals in the last 10 games, is considered: those two are really just that good. If captain Mark Stone (6G, 15P) can break a rare four-game pointless streak, then Vegas should not suffer too badly from a slight offensive regression.

The ‘X-Factor’ section also mentioned a prominent feature of the Panthers’ offense, its top-heaviness. Through three games of the Eastern Conference Final series, Florida did not have a single goal from a player not named Barkov, Reinhart, Tkachuk, or Verhaeghe. That is only three games, and it is not unreasonable for a team to fall back on four guys who have all notched at least one 30-goal season over the past two years.

Still, whether it is Anthony Duclair, who admittedly scored a massive goal in Game 4 against Carolina, Sam Bennett, or, yes, Eric Staal, someone new has to become a regular contributor for the Panthers to beat Vegas over seven games. Four players, no matter how good, do not constitute an offense, and since Montour went cold, there will be no bailouts from a blueline with three offensive non-factors.

That is not to say that Florida has not done anything right on offense; they just beat the team with the second-highest points total of the regular season in four games, after all. Bennett has been a bowling ball on the forecheck. He and Cousins have done much of the dirty work that has enabled Tkachuck to get to the slot so often.

On special teams, the Panthers have a distinct advantage. The Cats are converting on an impressive 27.9 percent of their power-play tries, while the Golden Knights have killed off only 62.2 percent of their penalties. That is the second-worst rate out of any playoff team in 2023, let alone teams who advanced.

Defense

Despite their appalling penalty-kill stats, the Golden Knights have had the best defense of any team in the postseason. Huh? That’s right, Vegas’s organization at even strength has meant one failed kill will not sink them. In 5-on-5 hockey, the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 48-23. They have not significantly out-chanced or outshot their opponents; the difference comes down to execution. The Golden Knights keep pucks to the outside, block shots, force turnovers, and get out on the rush. It may be simple, but every team would be this good if it were easy.

GM Kelly McCrimmon has assembled an excellent defensive corps to execute coach Bruce Cassidy’s plans. Alex Pietrangelo leads the group with Alec Martinez and paces Vegas skaters in ice time per game. Playing alongside physical veteran Brayden McNabb on the second pair, Shea Theodore has quietly become one of the most consistent offensive defensemen in the league since arriving in Nevada in 2017, while bottom unit of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud have done well enough to allow Cassidy not to run his top four into the ground. The duo is a combined plus-18 and plays more than 18 minutes per contest.

Stone and Karlsson are Vegas’s most noted two-way forwards, while Reilly Smith is always a threat to get out on the rush shorthanded: his 12 shorties since joining the Knights are joint-third in the NHL over that span.

For the Panthers, defense has mostly meant forechecking the other team into mistakes through the Tkachuk line and Bobrovsky turning into Ken Dryden. Still, they have identified the players they rely on in key situations. 

Cassidy’s counterpart Paul Maurice has fewer qualms about leaning on the D-men he trusts for big minutes. No one will be more grateful for the Cats’ nine days of rest than Brandon Montour, who probably spent the duration of that time asleep after three rounds of playing more than 27 minutes per game. His scoring touch may have abandoned him after a big first-round and 73-point regular season, but Montour has put in a Herculean shift this postseason.

Marc Staal has had a tough time keeping up with his partner, and while he never shorts the Panthers on effort, there is a reason Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling have had more success on the stat sheet. That duo is probably Florida’s most balanced; Ekblad is not the player he once was, but with Forsling beside him to mitigate his shakiest qualities, he can still lead the top pair for the team that drafted him first overall back in 2014. While Radko Gudas brings energy and physicality to Florida’s bottom pair, Maurice has mostly hidden Josh Mahura away this postseason.

The Panthers’ defense has held it together just enough to be bailed out by Bob’s genius thus far, but if they surrender the 37 shots a game they have so far against the Golden Knights’ snipers, they could find themselves in deep trouble.

Goaltending

To start the playoffs, it seemed like Vegas had finally found its answer in goal… in the form of Laurent Brossoit. Unfortunately, Brossoit injured his hip in Game 3 against Edmonton. Luckily, Adin Hill has answered the call admirably in the Golden Knights cage. The goalie carousel in Vegas has stopped on him, and he seems unwilling to reopen any debate on whose net it is.

Thanks to his 6-foot-4 frame and surprising athleticism, Hill always had potential; the 27-year-old is only now putting the complete package together. Vegas fans like what they see, and Hill could joust with the injured Logan Thompson for a future as the Knights’ No. 1 goalie based on what he has achieved these playoffs, albeit Hill is a pending UFA. After allowing a decisive soft goal in Game 5, the big netminder rebounded for his second away shutout of the Western Conference Final to stamp Vegas’s ticket to the Stanley Cup.

Hill is not the one-man band Bobrovsky has been, but he gives Vegas more than simply avoiding mistakes. That’s more than the journeyman Brossoit or aging legend Jonathan Quick can say. Hill has allowed just 2.07 goals against per game with a .937 save percentage 10 starts since Brossoit went down. Hill would need to seriously slip up for Quick to appear in the final series.

As for Bobrovsky, what can be said that has not already? After starting an uncharacteristically shaky 50 regular-season games with Spencer Knight missing for personal reasons, Bob was shelved in favor of career AHLer Alex Lyon as the Panthers made a late charge into the playoffs. Maurice gave him another shot in Game 3 against Boston, and he has never had cause to regret it.

Bobrovsky has been invincible and could realistically win the Conn Smythe even if the Panthers do not get the job done in the coming weeks. The two-time Vezina winner has shattered the idea that he shrinks in the playoffs and put together a run worthy of Bernie Parent, winning 11 of 13 starts for an eighth-seeded team that has been outshot relentlessly. Bobrovsky has a .935 SV% and allows only 2.21 goals per game behind a defense that allowed more than 270 tallies in the regular season. Breakaway stops on Martin Necas and Brad Marchand were just a pair of his signature moments on this journey, one that the 34-year-old hopes will end with more than just an individual trophy.

Injuries

With Brett Howden back in the lineup after suffering a minor injury against the Stars, the Golden Knights have a (mostly) clean bill of health. Thompson and Brossoit are still unavailable, however, so an injury to Hill would be a nightmare scenario.

The Florida Panthers have the full complement of players they went into Game 1 against Boston with, though Patric Hornqvist and Knight remain out for the year.

Intangibles

The big question going into this series is the value of momentum. There is no way to statistically capture how a team can overperform so often that it finally believes it will win. That phenomenon has fueled the Florida Panthers throughout the postseason. Why shouldn’t it carry them all the way to Stanley Cup glory?

The Golden Knights are objectively and clearly the stronger team, but so were the Bruins. This Panthers’ squad is full of winners. That does not show up on a stat sheet. They have already followed the brilliant Tkachuk-Bobrovsky double act to great things and will go into Las Vegas fully expecting to shock the world one last time.

For Vegas, their team has loads of the only thing that can prepare a team for the Stanley Cup Final: experience. Quick is not playing, but no one theoretically has more advice for Hill to draw from than the two-time champ with the L.A. Kings. Martinez also won both those Cups and scored the winning goal of the 2014 vintage.

Pietrangelo lifted the Stanley Cup as captain of a 2019 Blues team that included Barbashev, while seven original Golden Knights who lost to Chandler Stephenson and the Washington Capitals in the 2018 finals remain. Vegas has never won the Cup, but their group is battle-tested despite having cruised through the West.

Series Prediction

The Panthers have a superstar in Tkachuk, so no one can say Bobrovksy has brought them here alone. Still, the way they have relied on him is not sustainable; against a Golden Knights team that is better everywhere else, that will not work for a fourth time. Hasek fell short in 1999, Rinne fell short in 2017, and Bobrovsky will fall short in 2023 as the Cup goes to the desert in close but clear fashion.

Vegas Golden Knights in six games.