What will the 2021 Fantasy Hockey Season look like?
On Sunday, the NHL announced that they will have a 56-game regular season, which will begin on January 13th.
A short training camp can begin on December 31st and puck-drop will commence a couple of weeks later. If everything goes according to plan, the NHL regular season will end on May 8th and the playoffs will begin a few days later.
What does this mean for season-long Fantasy Hockey leagues?
Much like in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, Fantasy leagues will be much more compressed. The regular season will be 16 fantasy weeks long, which means most leagues will likely have an 11 or 12 week “regular season” followed by a few weeks of playoffs. For 12-team leagues, an 11-game regular season, where you play each team once, is probably going to become standard.
A compact season means added importance for a hot-start but also increased flexibility as an owner. In a full-length season, it is completely acceptable to wait on your drafted team to get going, but you won’t have that same luxury this season. Players on the waiver wire who get off to hot starts are going to be important because a two-week hot streak is almost 20 percent of your fantasy regular season.
Injuries are going to play a key role as well. A player like @David Pastrnak is typically a sure-fire first-round pick but offseason surgery that is expected to sideline him until mid-February takes on added risk when considering the season ends in early-May. If Pastrnak misses the first four weeks of the season, that’s 36.4 percent of a projected fantasy regular season. It may be the teams who get first or second overall and land @Connor McDavid or @Nathan MacKinnon that can take that risk on Pastrnak in the late-second/early-third round and hope that McDavid/MacKinnon can make up for the lack of production of not having Pastrnak for a month.
According to the early ADPs (average draft position) on Yahoo!, Pastrnak is going in 41.9 on average, ahead of players like @Blake Wheeler and @Johnny Gaudreau. Based on our Projections, Wheeler could have 6.1 goals and 13.9 assists (20.0 points) before Pastrnak even plays a game. That’s a huge head start.
At the same time, if you can build a team that is capable of withstanding that first month, getting a player of Pastrnak’s ilk in the fourth round could make your team a playoff powerhouse, if you get there. Based on Yahoo’s ADP, drafting Pastrnak at 41 would mean your team starts something like @Patrick Kane (8th overall), Elias Petterson (17th), @Roman Josi (32nd) and Pastrnak (41st) in the first four rounds. Not bad but it will matter what you do in rounds 5-through-16 that determine whether the risk was worth it or not.
Other Key NHL Dates:
- Trade Deadline – April 12th
Expansion Draft – July 21st
NHL Draft – July 23-24th
Free Agency – July 28th