Which 2023-24 NHL teams share the most traits with the past 10 Stanley Cup champions?

Credit: Oct 26, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) and New York Rangers defensemen Ryan Lindgren (55) battles for position during the first period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Building a contender at the NHL Trade Deadline isn’t as simple as checking off a shopping list of must-have ingredients for a Stanley Cup recipe.

But what if it was?

Over the past few years at Daily Faceoff, using the previous 10 NHL seasons as my case-study subjects, I developed a list of traits that were most common among the Stanley Cup winners. I came up with seven. And voila, the Stanley Cup ingredients series was born.

So far, we’ve explored the correlation strength of the following characteristics:

1. Team Weight – Are you one of the 10 heaviest teams in the NHL?

2. Top-10 Scorer(s) – Do you have at least one player who is top 10 in points or points per game?

3. Top 10 Goalie – Did your starting goaltender play at least half your games and place top-10 in the NHL in save percentage?

4. Expected Goal Differential – Do you crack the NHL’s top 10 in 5-on-5 expected goal differential?

5. Penalty Killing Efficiency – Does your P.K. rank top 20 in the NHL? Yes, only top 20. Your P.K. can be adequate; it just can’t be one of the league’s worst.

6. Stanley Cup Rings – Do you have at least one player who has previously won a championship?

7. Trade Deadline Deals – Did you acquire at least one player for your active lineup between Jan. 1 and the deadline? (If you traded players for only picks, you don’t qualify as a “yes.”)

Now comes the fun part: we mix all seven ingredients into one pot, apply them to every 2023-24 NHL team and see who possesses the most Stanley Cup winning traits. Ready? Let’s cook, with data based on games played through March 31.

Team	Heavy	Top Scorer	Top Goalie	xGA diff.	Top-20 PK	Cup Ring(s)	Trade(s)
Anaheim	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Arizona	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Boston	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Buffalo	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Calgary	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Carolina	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Chicago	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Colorado	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Columbus	No	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
Dallas	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Detroit	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Edmonton	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Florida	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Los Angeles	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
Minnesota	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Montreal	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Nashville	No	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
New Jersey	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
NY Islanders	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	No
NY Rangers	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Ottawa	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Philadelphia	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Pittsburgh	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
San Jose	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Seattle	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
St. Louis	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No
Tampa Bay	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Toronto	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Vancouver	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Vegas	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Washington	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No
Winnipeg	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes

Most Stanley Cup Ingredients, 2023-24 NHL teams

MICHELIN STAR

Boston Bruins, 6
Edmonton Oilers, 6
New York Rangers, 6

DELICIOUS

Colorado Avalanche, 5
Dallas Stars, 5
Florida Panthers, 5
Tampa Bay Lightning, 5
Vancouver Canucks, 5
Vegas Golden Knights, 5

COULD USE A PINCH OF SALT

Carolina Hurricanes, 4
Los Angeles Kings, 4
New Jersey Devils, 4
Philadelphia Flyers, 4
Pittsburgh Penguins, 4
Seattle Kraken, 4
Washington Capitals, 4
Winnipeg Jets, 4

BLAND

Buffalo Sabres, 3
Calgary Flames, 3
Detroit Red Wings, 3
Montreal Canadiens, 3
Nashville Predators, 3
St. Louis Blues, 3
Toronto Maple Leafs, 3

SEND IT BACK

Anaheim Ducks, 2
Arizona Coyotes, 2
Chicago Blackhawks, 2
Minnesota Wild, 2
New York Islanders, 2
Ottawa Senators, 2
San Jose Sharks, 2

CALL THE HEALTH INSPECTOR

Columbus Blue Jackets, 1

Key takeaways

– For the most part, the system reflects the powerhouses of the NHL accurately. Seven of the top 10 teams in the overall standings, including every current division leader, possess at least five of the seven ingredients. Nine of the top 10 possess four or more ingredients.

– We see a powerful correlation between lacking the championship ingredients and languishing in the NHL’s cellar. Of the NHL’s bottom 10 teams in the standings, eight possess three or fewer traits, and six have two or fewer. Fittingly, the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have been nothing short of an embarrassment this season, have just one Cup ingredient.

– The Bruins, Oilers and Rangers are so close to perfect. What’s missing? The Bruins and Rangers don’t drive the 5-on-5 play well enough to crack the top 10 in expected goal differential; the Bruins feel Patrice Bergeron’s absence, and the Rangers have relied on sizzling goaltender Igor Shesterkin to mask some defensive deficiencies since the all-star break, albeit they corrected course quite a bit in March. For the Oilers, the Achilles heel is goaltending, of course. Starter Stuart Skinner’s save percentages by month in 2023-24: .863, .888, .915, .953, .887, .918. Close your eyes and spin a wheel.

– The one team that surprised me most in its result: the Hurricanes. Aren’t they supposed to be a juggernaut? They only check four of the seven boxes. But not to fear, Canes fans; GM Don Waddell addressed the scoring problem by landing Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. He has been a force for the Canes thus far. Carolina also didn’t make the top-10 goalie cut, but Pyotr Kochetkov ranked 11th in the criteria, while Freddie Andersen (11-1-0, 1.88, .930) has been gangbusters since returning from his blood clot scare and would have qualified had he played enough games.

– Trying to identify the pretenders? The Red Wings, Maple Leafs and Predators each possess fewer than half the Stanley Cup ingredients. The Wings had outperformed their lousy underlying numbers before slamming into a brick wall in March; the Leafs have been outscoring their subpar penalty kill and hot-cold goaltending. The Preds’ standing is slightly misleading as it doesn’t account for their amazing run since the all-star break. They “don’t have a top 10 goalie,” for instance, but Juuse Saros is 13-3-1 with a .915 save percentage from February onward.

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