Which 2025-26 Stanley Cup contender is a paper tiger?
We’re roughly 80 percent through the NHL season now. The Trade Deadline arms race is over. We more or less understand who every team is. Looking at the field of probable playoff teams…which supposed Stanley Cup contender looks like a paper tiger? Let’s resume our annual exercise.
MATT LARKIN: The Minnesota Wild are hiding in plain sight. They feel like a contender given they have two superstars in Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes. But here’s a double-take stat: only one team in the entire NHL allows more scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5 this season. They have the league’s 20th-best penalty kill. They’re extremely low-ceiling at center after failing to address the hole at the Trade Deadline. Worse yet, they’re likely headed for a first-round matchup with the Dallas Stars, meaning one of the two powerhouses is guaranteed to go home in Round 1. The Wild have a lot to like but are also flawed.
MIKE GOULD: The Detroit Red Wings have been hanging out in the top three of the Atlantic Division for most of the season, but I’m not even convinced that their decade-long playoff drought will come to an end this year. It certainly isn’t the foregone conclusion it’s been dubbed by some other media members (not naming names). The Wings have fallen into Wildcard territory by going 4-5-1 in their last 10, and their center depth was already suspect before they lost Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp to injuries. I’ve always felt the Wings are a tad too one-dimensional to be true championship contenders, much less a perennial playoff team, and it’d really be a waste if Dylan Larkin turns 30 before this team truly gets off the ground. If they don’t make it this year, I wonder if we might see Detroit go into an aggressive retool — similar, perhaps, to when the Buffalo Sabres traded Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Reinhart, and Jack Eichel. I just don’t know if this core has what it takes, but we’ll see.
ANTHONY TRUDEAU: Is it cheating to pick the Vegas Golden Knights, who are only a lock due to shoddy Pacific competition? The Knights aren’t just disappointing, they’re plain bad, barely on pace to clear 90 points. Still, as Scott and Hunter alluded to in Monday’s power rankings, they’re grouped in with the heavyweights more often than not because of a roster that looks great on paper. That same roster is drowning on the ice due to bad depth and worse goaltending; Vegas’s vaunted size, experience, and star power (Mark Stone and Jack Eichel are scoring at career-best rates) can only provide so much playoff optimism for a team that’s won fewer games than the lottery-bound New Jersey Devils. Unless the playoffs magically jolt Adin Hill (.917 postseason SV%) awake, these guys are going to get shelled by the Oilers. Hill has played the worst hockey of his career since returning from a lower-body injury in January (.851 SV%, 2 quality starts in 12 GP), and the Golden Knights have beaten Edmonton just five times in 18 tries since their smothering series victory over the Oil in 2023.
PAUL PIDUTTI: Mike beat me to it, but my first thought was the Detroit Red Wings. I often feel I’m too hard on the Wings. But I just don’t see them as a scary matchup… They haven’t outscored opponents overall, have an okay power play, an okay penalty kill, okay underlying metrics, and struggle to consistently outplay teams. As much as there is to like about their top handful of guys, it’s not a group that often takes over games. Top-to-bottom, are they better than any of Boston, Columbus, Ottawa, or Washington? I’m not so sure. It feels like a team that squeaked out a lot of games early, got excellent goaltending from John Gibson for a while, but is sliding back to reality as a borderline playoff team like the past few seasons. I’d love to see them rock Little Caesars Arena this spring but won’t be surprised if they finish just short either.
SCOTT MAXWELL: I have to agree with Matt on this one. Among all the teams grouped into the Stanley Cup contender conversation, the Minnesota Wild stick out like a sore thumb. It was a conversation they joined not through their play, but because they made a deal for Hughes, and they still have yet to live up to it with the on-ice product. Before Hughes arrived, the Wild had a 49.19% 5v5 expected goal share and were tied for 20th in expected goals against per 60 minutes with 2.77, so I was expecting improvement once Quinn joined. However, the improvement is only marginal, as they have a 51.05% 5v5 xGF% and are 15th in xGA/60 at 2.74. They’re far from a bad team, but I certainly wouldn’t label them as a Cup contender this season, especially when they have to run through the Stars and likely the Colorado Avalanche in the first two rounds (and both teams are a step above them at this point in time).
STEVEN ELLIS: I hate to say it, but I don’t think this the Buffalo Sabres’ year yet. They’re such a fun story, and this fanbase absolutely deserves something to get excited about. I also appreciate that most of their wins have come in regulation – Minnesota, for example, has had double the points in overtime losses. Playoff experience can be a bit overvalued, in my opinion, but I still think this is a team that needs to figure out how to play meaningful hockey as a group before they’re ready to truly contend. I actually just don’t love most Eastern Conference contenders, but I really think this needs to be a learning experience for Buffalo. I hope I’m wrong – again, I love the fanbase.
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