Which Canadian NHL teams will miss the playoffs in 2025-26?

No, Canada?

The NHL standings look pretty ugly north of the border as November nears its end, with almost every Canadian franchise in a state of turmoil, be it due to injuries, goaltending, poor team performance or all of the above.

So let’s assess our levels of panic. Which Canadian NHL teams will miss the playoffs in 2025-26?

MATT LARKIN: Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets. We don’t need to spend much time on Calgary and Vancouver; we know they’re bad. As for the Jets: they were one of the worst defensive teams in the league before Connor Hellebuyck got hurt, so I fear they’ll be exposed without him. They’re also not as deep at forward as they were last year, and the Central Division is tough. Surprised I didn’t say the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs? Both have been bad, but I believe Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can still will Edmonton into the postseason, while the Leafs should improve as they get healthy, and the Atlantic Division looks weaker this year. I’m not bullish on either team overall but suspect they can squeak in as Wild Cards.

SCOTT MAXWELL: I’ll add one more to Matt’s answer and say that along with the Flames, Canucks and Jets, the Toronto Maple Leafs will miss the playoffs. While the Leafs certainly won’t be as bad as they’ve been over the past few weeks once they start to get healthier, they’ve still been playing very poorly. Their older defense corps is struggling to move the puck up the ice, their depth is constantly getting hemmed in their own zone, and they don’t have the goaltending to bail them out this year. Add in that Auston Matthews still doesn’t look like his usual self, and I could see the Leafs finishing just outside of a playoff spot when it’s all said and done.

As for the other teams, the Flames and Canucks just don’t look like they’ll be in the playoff conversation in the coming months, and like Matt, I think that Hellebuyck’s injury may be enough to knock the Jets out of a spot, especially with their poor defensive play. I almost included the Oilers, as their play this season has been underwhelming, but I think McDavid and Draisaitl are still enough to at least drag them to a playoff spot.

MIKE GOULD: I’m gonna go crazy here and say every single Canadian team will miss the playoffs. All of them. The Flames and Canucks feel like a given at this point, and I think the Jets will just barely miss by virtue of their poor 5-on-5 play; additionally, the Oilers are an absolute tire fire, and I think it would be so on the nose for them to fall outside the playoff picture right after McDavid handed them a gift with that two-year contract extension. Out east, I don’t have any confidence in the Leafs turning it around, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Habs and Sens fell out of the mix in favor of Boston, Pittsburgh, Florida, and the like. Remember when every Canadian team missed back in the 2015-16 season? I think it’s happening again — now!

ANTHONY TRUDEAU: I’ll add the Canadiens to Scott’s list, where they’ll join the Canucks, Flames, Maple Leafs, and Jets. The Habs’ power play has come off the boil (7th-worst since 11/1), and they still haven’t found a way to win minutes when their top line sits (32-39 game score without Suzuki, Caufield at 5-on-5). If the Metropolitan Division sneaks in a fourth playoff team, a real possibility, that leaves three berths open in the Atlantic, where the Lightning will waltz into the playoffs. Ottawa is also getting in; they’ve won despite star goalie Linus Ullmark, who’s just now rounding into form (.915 SV% in past five), and without returning captain Brady Tkachuk. You don’t bet against the Florida Panthers, and the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings haven’t had to rely on hot shooting like the Canadiens (league best 13.4 S%), who can’t buy a save from Sam Montembeault (-12.24 GSAA, last).

STEVEN ELLIS: I’ll echo Matt’s picks. Lame, I know, but we saw Montreal have similar struggles before figuring it out halfway through last year. And with Toronto… It’s been hard to judge them given their significant injury concerns. Are they as good as they were last year? Not even close. But if they can stay healthy and the blueline can start looking like an actual NHL blueline, they’ll be fine. I don’t like Winnipeg right now, and Vancouver and Calgary are a mess. Everyone else will be fine, but I don’t expect a Canadian Stanley Cup champion this year.

PAUL PIDUTTI: This is a really tough one, Matt. There are just so few teams in the NHL right now that scream ‘playoff team.’ I’m going to say the Flames, Canucks, Jets and Maple Leafs* miss. The asterisk on the Leafs is if they don’t make a coaching change in time. I’ve got all kinds of respect for Craig Berube and the injuries haven’t helped but all I see is a confused, miscast roster that’s been outchanced for a year-and-a-half and isn’t getting the goaltending to mask the possession deficit. They need that 2019 Sheldon Keefe-esque glow up bad right now. I’m all in on Ottawa and just barely in on Montreal, who I think will clinch very late in the year. I said they’d win the 2030 Stanley Cup so a postseason miss just won’t cut it. Edmonton is a notoriously sleepy starter and is testing everyone’s patience but I still think they’re too talented not to recover soon. I want to believe in Winnipeg but I’ll say they finish just barely back of the race.

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