Why can’t Canada beat Czechia at the World Juniors when it matters?

ST. PAUL, Minn. – Shortly after the first round-robin game between Canada and Czechia earlier this year, I called it the best rivalry in international junior hockey.

Sunday’s semifinal rematch absolutely proved that.

Canada finally got some relief on Dec. 26, beating Czechia after two years of heartbreak. But nine days later in St. Paul, the Czechs won when it mattered, securing a spot in the final with a chance to win for the first time since 2001.

From Canada’s perspective, this shouldn’t have happened. They built the most skilled team in the tournament – one leading most statistical categories heading into the final four. Was Canada’s roster perfect? No, but it was hard to argue against the decisions when they named the group, and they were the best team nearly every night. The lineup clearly proved they could score. Defensively, Zayne Parekh has had a strong case to be named tournament MVP. Was swapping goalies for the quarterfinal too bold a strategy? Who knows.

But you really don’t have to overthink it. Here’s the reality, and, truly, the most critical part: Czechia brought an excellent team. This might be the best lineup they’ve ever assembled at this tournament. And it could have been better had their starting goalie not been injured earlier in the season.

The IIHF doesn’t publish advanced statistics, but Canada had the better expected goals throughout the night. So Canada’s loss can’t be blamed on a lackluster offensive effort. If you want to pinpoint the blame anywhere, you can question why a blueline with two active NHLers, five first-round picks, and two potential top 10 selections this coming June struggled to actually defend.

Czechia absolutely deserved that victory. They had the much stronger forecheck, the better defense, and worked better as a group. Canada relied a bit too much on the rush, and their defense suffered. Czechia’s best blueliner, meanwhile, was an undersized blueliner passed over twice now, Tomas Galvas. Goaltender Michal Orsulak was an absolute difference-maker. He allowed four goals, but he made some absolutely incredible stops in the second period as Canada laid on the pressure.

Czechia head coach Patrik Augusta forced his team to work harder on Sunday. They were faster, more aggressive, and defensively responsible than they were the first time they played Canada, and it paid off.

There’s a very, very high chance that the tournament all-star team will be absolutely dominated by the Czechs, regardless of who wins on Monday. Don’t be surprised if Adam Jiricek is the tournament MVP. That’s how good this group has been. The Czechs don’t have the same skill as Canada – heck, none of their goalies are even drafted. But what they have is four forward lines and seven defenders who never take a night off.

The Czechs don’t have a star forward up front. Their top scorer is Vojtěch Čihař, who entered the tournament with eight points in 27 games in the top Czech league after being taken 59th overall by Los Angeles last June. Other top contributors include Petr Sikora (sixth-round pick by Washington), Adam Benák (fourth-round pick by Minnesota), Max Curran (fifth-round pick by Colorado) and Tomáš Poletin (fourth-round pick by the New York Islanders). The team’s only first-round pick up front is Václav Nestrašil, whom Chicago took at No. 25 last June.

On paper, Canada absolutely should have smoked them – but hockey isn’t played on paper. And in a tournament like this, sometimes it’s the absolute will to win that pulls through. Czechia’s group has been through a lot. Many members of this team came up short in consecutive gold medal losses to Canada at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in 2023 and 2024. They’ll always play Canada extremely tough – just like everyone else does. Canada set the gold standard at the World Juniors ages ago, and beating them feels extra special, no matter who wins.

There was a time when Canada would easily roll over the competition. Those days are gone. And that’s absolutely massive for the sport. This tournament will continue needing Canada to perform well for television ratings and attendance reasons. But the sport will only grow if more fanbases see their teams challenging for gold each year. We’ve seen the IIHF World Championship – both men’s and women’s – grow massively for countries that have pulled off underdog runs, such as Denmark, Latvia, and Switzerland.

A major drought is about to end, regardless of who wins gold on Monday. It’s been 25 years for Czechia and 14 for Sweden. Storylines like that are what make the tournament special. Everyone should want their own country to win, but we’re all craving good hockey in the end, no matter who it is. But intense competition is key to bettering the sport.

Canada simply got beaten by a team that came at them harder and deserved it more. Simple as that. Canada’s junior hockey program is still in a strong spot. Canada has won gold at the past three U-17 World Challenges and the last two U-18 World Championships.

But the rest of the world is catching up. And that’s great for everyone.

SPONSORED BY bet365