NHL DFS Showdown Breakdown: VGK vs. DAL (Game 5)

Updated: September 14, 2020 at 1:46 pm by Brock Seguin

With only one game on the NHL slate, all you have to play is DraftKings Showdown slate.

In Showdown you play six players, regardless of position, including one player as your “Captain.” Captains cost 1.5x their regular price but receive a 1.5x DraftKings point multiplier.

Below I have broken down every single player that is projected to play and whether or not you should play them on this Showdown slate.

Vegas Golden Knights

Robin Lehner ($11,000)

Lehner hasn’t been very busy in the last two games, facing just 21.5 shots per game. Still, they’ve lost both games with Lehner posting a 2.52 GAA and .884 SV%. The Golden Knights are likely to go back to him still, but the lack of volume he is facing drastically limits his upside.

Max Pacioretty ($10,000)

The offence has dried up for Pacioretty. He has just one assist in his last seven playoff games but his shot volume has remained strong. He’s still averaging 3.9 shots per game over that tough stretch, keeping him as a strong DFS play in Game 5.

Shea Theodore ($9,400)

Theodore’s numbers aren’t quite as good recently either, posting three points (1G / 2A) in his last six games, but 0.5 Pts/gm is still fine for a defenseman. He’s still averaging 4.0 shots per game over that time, so he’s as safe of a play as Pacioretty for $600 cheaper.

Mark Stone ($9,000)

Stone was stunned by a Joe Pavelski shot in Game 4 and is questionable to play in Game 5. Stone is a terrific hockey player but the offensive numbers haven’t been great recently and the injury adds additional risk to playing him at this price tag.

Jonathan Marchessault ($8,400)

Marchessault is a player who has averaged one goal every three games over the last four seasons but has gone 10 straight playoff games without one. He’s also averaging less than 3.0 shots per game over that stretch, which is strange for him. Vegas mixed up their PP units a bit in Game 4 but Marchessault remains on PP2, so he’s a middle-of-the-pack option on this team.

William Karlsson ($8,200)

Karlsson has just two points (1G / 1A) in his last seven games. Are you sensing a trend here? Their top players are ice-cold and that’s why they’re down 3-1 and on the brink of elimination. Given his low shot totals, Karlsson’s floor isn’t good enough for him to be considered a good cash option.

Reilly Smith ($7,200)

Smith has not registered a point in the series but is among the Golden Knights’ leaders in ice-time and shots. Given his position on the top power-play unit and his digestible price tag, makes Smith a strong option, especially in the captain position.

Nate Schmidt ($7,000)

Given the low-event nature of this series, Schmidt’s shot-blocking totals and DraftKings upside has come down a bit. Still, he plays huge minutes (23:10 ATOI) and is leading the team in shots in the series. He doesn’t have the massive upside that Theodore possesses but is the better play at $2,400 cheaper.

Alex Tuch ($6,600)

VGK3 operates at a low-event pace, which limits Tuch’s upside. However, he was moved to PP1 in Game 4 and will definitely stay there if Stone doesn’t play. $6,600 is a steep price to pay for a third-liner but he’s shown solid shot volume throughout his time in Vegas, giving him a decent floor with high-end upside on PP1.

Alec Martinez ($6,200)

Martinez is averaging 1.5 shots and 3.3 blocked shots per game in this series. That gives him a 6.5 DK Point floor and he brings exposure to Theodore at 5v5, making Martinez a really intriguing play. He’s definitely a better cash option but a case can be made for him in GPPs as well.

Paul Stastny ($6,000)

Stastny is the best play on the Vegas side. He’s the cheapest among all of their top-6 forwards, plays on the top power-play unit, leads them in points in the series while also possessing a solid floor with a 2.5 shot per game average.

Nick Cousins ($4,600)

Cousins is just a little too expensive to consider while playing on a low-event third-line with no power-play time.

Chandler Stephenson ($4,400)

Stephenson is in the same boat as Cousins but he could gain some appeal if Stone doesn’t play. Stephenson would be a candidate to move into the top-6 and that would make him a decent value option.

Brayden McNabb ($4,200)

McNabb is averaging 1.0 shots and 2.0 blocks per game vs. the Stars. There’s not much to like about that at $4,200.

Nick Holden ($3,800)

He plays less than any Vegas defenseman and doesn’t see any PP time. With little offensive upside and no shot-blocking, he shouldn’t be an option in Game 5.

Nicolas Roy ($3,400)

When he was on a line with Pacioretty and Stastny he was a solid value play. With Will Carrier and Ryan Reaves on the fourth line, he is not in play. However, he is also a candidate to move up the line if Stone is out, so keep an eye on lines in warmups.

Zach Whitecloud ($2,800)

Whitecloud is $1,000 and $1,400 cheaper than Holden and McNabb and provides a similar stat line. He is averaging just 1.0 shots and 2.5 blocks per game, so his floor is fine for a player who is near the minimum price.

Ryan Reaves ($2,000)

He has a total of 1.3 DK Points in this series. That’s 0.3 DK Points per game, so don’t consider him.

Will Carrier ($2,000)

Carrier is averaging 0.4 DK Points per game in the series, so he’s a little better than Reaves?

Dallas Stars

Anton Khudobin ($10,600)

Khudobin has won four of his last five starts while stopping 159 of the 169 shots (.941 SV%) that he has faced. Khudobin has been outstanding in this series, posting a .952 SV% while facing an average of 31.3 shots per game. The worst-case scenario is Dallas loses, Khudobin should make enough saves to hover around double-digit points. Best case scenario, he continues to stop 95 percent of the shots he faces, Dallas ends the series and Khudobin posts 25 DraftKings points.

Tyler Seguin ($8,800)

There are a lot of questions whether or not Seguin is fully healthy. He hasn’t been himself but it hasn’t really affected the Stars. He has the third-worst CorsiFor% (41.84) on the team in this series and is averaging just 2.5 shots per game. That’s 1.1 shots less than he averaged in the regular season. At this price, there are much better plays on this Stars team.

Jamie Benn ($8,000)

Benn has been one of the Stars’ best players throughout the series. He is currently leading them in SCF% and has four points (2G / 2A) in the first four games. DAL1 was hemmed in Game 4 but Benn remains one of the best options at this price.

Joe Pavelski ($7,800)

Pavelski went from a must-play vs. the Flames and Avalanche but has struggled against Vegas. He has one goal and one assist in his last two games but has just two shots in the series. DAL2 has terrific underlying numbers, which generates the appeal but the diminishing shot volume makes him terribly risky, especially when he’s sandwiched between Benn and Heiskanen in pricing.

Miro Heiskanen ($7,600)

Heiskanen has been relatively quiet in the series but still has the best underlying numbers on the team. Given his elite usage (24:23 ATOI) and off the charts skill, Heiskanen is always a prudent play.

Alexander Radulov ($7,400)

Radulov’s shot volume leaves a lot to be desired but his price makes it a little easier to swallow. Overall, he has 10 points (6G / 4A) in his last 11 playoff games, so there’s obvious upside.

John Klingberg ($6,800)

Klingberg has been overshadowed by Heiskanen throughout the playoffs and even as the QB on PP1, he’s a risky play at $6,800. He has one or less shots in eight of his last nine games, so his floor is terrible low. He’s salvaged those games with six points (2G / 4A) but that’s tough to maintain vs. the Golden Knights.

Denis Gurianov ($6,400)

Coming into the series, Gurianov was on a six-game point streak but has been held pointless in four straight games vs. Vegas. He’s still averaging a decent 2.3 shots per game. There aren’t many good value options in the Stars’ bottom-6, so Gurianov might be the cheapest Dallas forward that’s actually in-play.

Roope Hintz ($5,800)

Hintz is a game-time decision for tonight’s game, so it’s safe to avoid him. He hasn’t registered a point in the series and if he’s less than 100 percent, it’s not worth playing him.

Esa Lindell ($5,600)

Lindell has not recorded a point in eight straight games but has averaged 1.3 shots and 2.9 blocks per game over that stretch. So even if he doesn’t get on the scoresheet, he has a 5.7 DK Point floor.

Joel Kiviranta ($5,200)

Kiviranta’s price was inflated by his hat-trick vs. Colorado but he hasn’t done much since. At this price, he just doesn’t carry much upside.

Corey Perry ($4,800)

Perry has been held pointless in eight straight games, averaging just 2.0 shots and 12:52 ATOI per game. With Radek Faksa and Roope Hintz likely out, Perry won’t be on a great line and isn’t worth the $4,800.

Jason Dickinson ($4,000)

Dickinson has no points in his last nine games. He has just two shots in this series and isn’t in play as a bottom-6 forward with no power-play time.

Mattias Janmark ($3,600)

Janmark has been in a position to succeed while on a line with Pavelski all postseason but he hasn’t scored a goal while adding five assists in 19 games. He’s a cheap dart throw if you’re stacking DAL2 but doesn’t have a lot of upside.

Jamie Oleksiak ($3,200)

Oleksiak hasn’t been quite as reliable in this series but did score a massive goal in Game 3. Playing over 21 minutes per game, mostly next to Heiskanen makes him a great value play.

Andrew Cogliano ($2,000)

He has one assist, 12 shots and 10 blocks in 16 playoff games. Nothing to see here.

Justin Dowling ($2,000)

He might not even get into the lineup.

Andrej Sekera ($2,000)

The only thing you’ll get out of Sekera is a couple of blocks. He’s playing close to 17 minutes so he could git the three-block bonus but it’s not likely.

Taylor Fedun ($2,000)

Fedun has been cleared to return to the lineup tonight but there’s no guarantee that will happen. If he dresses, it will likely be as a seventh defenseman, so there’s no reason to play him.

Joel Hanley ($2,000)

Averaging under 11 minutes per game and no goals in 52 career games, Hanley is not in-play.

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