NHL Power Rankings: The Pittsburgh Penguins fly

Credit: © Charles LeClaire

We are now a week (and a bit including the games in Prague) into the NHL season, and we’ve started to see a sliver of what teams are going to look like. Obviously, it’s only been two to four games for every team, so there’s a lot more noise than actual answers, but a hot (or cold) start can make all the difference for a team’s playoff chances.

With that, we start the power rankings for the season. It’s going to be a much different setup than the preseason edition of the rankings, as I’ll be looking at the teams’ play so far as opposed to their offseason additions. The rankings are an aggregate of six different stats: points %, 5v5 goal differential, 5v5 xGF/60, 5v5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, the latter five coming courtesy of Evolving Hockey.

However, I will attempt to ground the rankings a little bit with the actual results, so teams can’t rank higher than teams with more than five points in the standings, and vice versa. That won’t make a huge difference right now, but down the road it will be a lot more useful. And keep in mind, I’m not calling teams’ seasons after a week, mostly just giving mini-reactions to their starts.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +6 (1st)
5v5 xGF/60: 5.35 (1st)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.63 (1st)
PP xGF/60: 15.34 (3rd)
PK xGA/60: 9.17 (18th)
5v5 PDO: 106.84
Previous Week: 7th (+6)

The Penguins came to play to start the season, as they have been absolutely dominant in both of their games, creating more than 1.5 expected goals than the second best team, leading the way on defense, and also have a strong power play to boot. While one win was against the Arizona Coyotes, the other came against the Tampa Bay Lightning and they still put up equally impressive numbers.

2. Boston Bruins

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +4 (t-2nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.67 (4th)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.86 (3rd)
PP xGF/60: 9.89 (13th)
PK xGA/60: 4.2 (4th)
PDO: 104.2
Previous Rank: 12th (+10)

Like the Penguins, the Bruins also come with the benefit of having their numbers boosted by a game against the Coyotes, with their second game against the Washington Capitals coming a bit closer from a possession standpoint. The good news for the Bruins is that David Krejci has come back to the NHL seamlessly, scoring three points in his first game back and four so far in two games.

3. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +4 (t-2nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.32 (6th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.41 (t-13th)
PP xGF/60: 10.08 (11th)
PK xGA/60: 3.83 (3rd)
PDO: 104.24
Previous Rank: 3rd (0)

The Canes find themselves with the small sample issue of beating on weaker teams, as their wins came against the Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks. The Sharks game was a lot closer on the scoreboard, but the Canes had almost 75% of the possession in that game, so they’ve been making sure to take care of business early on.

While they’ve been overperforming their offensive output a bit, a sturdy defense and strong special teams make for a solid start for the Stars. Of course, both games came against the Nashville Predators, so perhaps we should wait until they play other teams before we make any bold predictions.

5. St. Louis Blues

Record: 1-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +2 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.59 (t-17th)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.89 (5th)
PP xGF/60: 11.02 (8th)
PK xGA/60: 2.97 (1st)
PDO: 110.38
Previous Rank: 9th (+4)

The Blues certainly rode the percentages offensively last season, and they seem to be doing the same to start the season this year as well. Now, they’ve played just one game with a 5-2 win over the Blue Jackets, so I wouldn’t worry too much about their PDO or 17th ranked xGF/60 at this point.

6. Florida Panthers

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-13th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.97 (9th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.17 (9th)
PP xGF/60: 13.68 (4th)
PK xGA/60: 4.69 (6th)
5v5 PDO: 101.22
Previous Rank: 1st (-5)

Many wondered whether losing Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar would be worth it to bring in Matthew Tkachuk in the short term, but it’s off to a good start, as the Panthers have gone 2-0, and Tkachuk already has two goals and three points. Their special teams have looked better than their even strength play, but even then, they’ve been good in the latter department as well.

7. Calgary Flames

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +2 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.53 (5th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.18 (10th)
PP xGF/60: 13.25 (5th)
PK xGA/60: 8.32 (16th)
5v5 PDO: 101.08
Previous Rank: 8th (+1)

Unlike a lot of teams on this list so far, the Flames actually had some decent competition to get their wins to start the season, beating the defending Cup champs in the Colorado Avalanche and the team that ended their playoff run in the Edmonton Oilers. They still have some things to figure out defensively to get back to where they were last year, but their offense is gelling even with all the new pieces.

8. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 3-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +3 (t-5th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.75 (3rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.13 (8th)
PP xGF/60: 6.88 (25th)
PK xGA/60: 5.78 (8th)
5v5 PDO: 101.66
Previous Rank: 17th (+9)

The league’s only 3-0 team so far, the Golden Knights are showing the hockey world that they aren’t worried about goaltending or a depleted forward depth in their early start. Jack Eichel is building off his red hot preseason with three points in three games to start the season and is a player who will be a big factor if this team looks to get back into the playoffs.

9. New York Rangers

Record: 2-1 (.667%, t-12th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +3 (t-5th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.93 (10th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.55 (18th)
PP xGF/60: 18.05 (1st)
PK xGA/60: 10.57 (24th)
5v5 PDO: 102.89
Previous Rank: 14th (+5)

The Rangers find themselves as the highest ranked team that isn’t undefeated, a testament to how well they’ve been playing this season, and unlike last season, it’s a bit more backed up by the numbers. The defense still needs a bit of work, but it’s not a glaring concern when you’ve got Igor Shesterkin in net, and the offense has been strong to start the season, including the top power play at generating chances so far.

10. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +3 (t-5th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.61 (16th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.66 (21st)
PP xGF/60: 8.39 (18th)
PK xGA/60: 7.78 (13th)
5v5 PDO: 108.32
Previous Rank: 26th (+16)

Here we have one of the few undefeated teams whose results are likely a red herring to their actual play, as the Wings find themselves looking mediocre in a lot of their stats that aren’t influenced by luck. The fact that their wins came against the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils is an even bigger sign that the Wings will start to lose some games once they start having to face higher skilled teams.

11. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 2-1 (.667%, t-12th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -1 (t-21st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.88 (11th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.65 (20th)
PP xGF/60: 10.94 (9th)
PK xGA/60: 4.5 (5th)
5v5 PDO: 96.14
Previous Rank: 5th (-6)

It’s been a somewhat mediocre start for the Leafs, or at least by their standards, especially considering that they haven’t quite faced any equally elite talent in their first three games. Despite that, they’re still looking solid in most categories, although their defense could certainly get a bit more into the form we’ve seen from them the past couple seasons.

12. New Jersey Devils

Record: 0-2 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -4 (27th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.79 (2nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.64 (2nd)
PP xGF/60: 9.99 (12th)
PK xGA/60: 8.14 (14th)
5v5 PDO: 83.43
Previous Rank: 21st (+9)

The Devils find themselves as the highest ranked team without a win, and while I’m sure they’d like to have had a better start in the win column, the underlying numbers show that this is a team that should probably be 2-0, not 0-2. That 83.43 PDO is ugly, especially the .784 save percentage attached to it, but you’d hope that that will even out. Then again, poor goaltending has plagued this team for a few years now.

13. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 1-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-13th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.12 (7th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.02 (24th)
PP xGF/60: 10.43 (10th)
PK xGA/60: 29.67 (32nd)
5v5 PDO: 104.13
Previous Rank: 19th (+6)

Another team with just one game under their belt, the Jets looked solid in their win over the New York Rangers. The offense was there as usual, but like previous seasons, it came at the expense of their defense, including a penalty kill that bled chances. That number won’t be that high as they play a few more games, but it’s not a good number to have, even for one game.

14. San Jose Sharks

Record: 0-4 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -1 (t-21st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.8 (13th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.07 (7th)
PP xGF/60: 8.82 (16th)
PK xGA/60: 6.99 (11th)
5v5 PDO: 97.58
Previous Rank: 30th (+16)

I’m sure having the last ranked team ranked in the top half of this list will raise many eyebrows, especially when you consider the fact that an 0-4 start really buries you in a hole that’s tough to get out of. In defense of the Sharks, they’ve looked alright so far and find themselves in the middle of the pack in their underlying numbers, it’s just that they cannot score a goal to save their life. That said, if I was a betting man, I’d say that them falling down this list is more likely than them improving their record significantly to stay this high as we get further into the season.

15. New York Islanders

Record: 1-1 (.500, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +4 (t-2nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.85 (12th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.23 (26th)
PP xGF/60: 7.71 (22nd)
PK xGA/60: 9.25 (19th)
5v5 PDO: 106.77
Previous Rank: 15th (0)

A 7-1 win over a mediocre Anaheim Ducks squad really skews the Islanders’ ranking, as that +4 5v5 goal differential is carrying their aggregate of otherwise middling (or poor) numbers. The defense that they were known for in their best years under former head coach Barry Trotz still hasn’t returned from a disastrous 2021-22 campaign so far either, so they still have a lot to work on if they’re looking to improve their chances of making the playoffs.

16. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 1-1 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-17th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.69 (30th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.41 (t-13th)
PP xGF/60: 8.86 (15th)
PK xGA/60: 5.67 (7th)
5v5 PDO: 98.74
Previous Rank: 4th (-12)

We’ll give the defending Stanley Cup Champions the benefit of the doubt for a slow start, especially if they plan on taking the foot off the gas a bit in the regular season to prepare for another Cup run. At the very least, they took care of business against a weak Chicago Blackhawks team, but hopefully a game against the Flames will look a lot different in the playoffs.

17. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 0-2 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: 2 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.02 (8th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.28 (12th)
PP xGF/60: 5.95 (29th)
PK xGA/60: 7.53 (12th)
5v5 PDO: 103.03
Previous Rank: 18th (+1)

Despite the 0-2 start, the Canucks haven’t looked quite as bad as their record suggests. A power play struggling to generate chances hasn’t helped their situation, but otherwise they’ve got some solid underlying numbers that they could improve on as they get more games in. They held their own against a strong offense in the Edmonton Oilers and probably deserved a better result against the Flyers, so I wouldn’t call off the season just yet.

18. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 2-0 (1.000%, t-1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-13th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.1 (26th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.18 (25th)
PP xGF/60: 6.44 (27th)
PK xGA/60: 8.22 (15th)
5v5 PDO: 104.55
Previous Rank: 25th (+7)

Speaking of the Flyers, they’ve surprised a lot of people with their 2-0 start, especially after all the honest comments on the team from new head coach John Tortorella. But a quick look under the hood, and you can see this team likely won’t last. They struggle at creating scoring chances in their own end and preventing them in the other end, and their power play doesn’t make much either, so it’s mostly that record and a middling goal differential and penalty kill that save them so far.

19. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 1-2 (.333%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -1 (t-21st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.11 (25th)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.87 (4th)
PP xGF/60: 7.98 (20th)
PK xGA/60: 9.87 (22nd)
5v5 PDO: 100.61
Previous Rank: 29th (+10)

I’m sure many expected the Blackhawks to be near the bottom of this list, and based on a lot of their numbers, they should be, but being the fourth best at suppressing chances manages to put them above the rest of the basement for now. The fact that two of those three games were against the Avalanche and the Golden Knights at least shows that it’s not boosted from playing weaker teams, but we’ll see if this holds further into the season.

20. Ottawa Senators

Record: 0-2 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-25th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.68 (14th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.43 (t-15th)
PP xGF/60: 5.39 (31st)
PK xGA/60: 3.16 (2nd)
5v5 PDO: 96.59
Previous Rank: 23rd (+3)

The Senators may have won the offseason, but they have yet to win a game, although they probably deserve to have at least one. Their possession stats are mediocre but a significant improvement on their recent past teams, and their penalty kill has been strong at suppressing scoring chances, especially against the best power play from last season in the Maple Leafs’.

21. Nashville Predators

Record: 2-2 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-13th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.25 (22nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.43 (t-15th)
PP xGF/60: 7.24 (24th)
PK xGA/60: 12.01 (27th)
5v5 PDO: 100.85
Previous Rank: 16th (-5)

The Preds got off to a hot start in Prague with back-to-back wins over the Sharks before dropping their next two to the Stars, and that’s about as fitting of a start as any for this team. They haven’t looked impressive or terrible, and they probably fall in the middle of these Sharks and Stars teams, so I guess this is the start that we probably should have expected from Nashville.

22. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 1-2 (.333%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-17th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.12 (24th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.46 (29th)
PP xGF/60: 8.71 (17th)
PK xGA/60: 6.58 (10th)
5v5 PDO: 102.64
Previous Rank: 20th (-2)

The Kings haven’t exactly inspired confidence so far, as even their only win came as a result of a goaltending meltdown from Minnesota Wild goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. They Kings have at least had some hot starts from some of their players, including three goals and four points from Adrian Kempe and three points from new addition Kevin Fiala.

23. Minnesota Wild

Record: 0-2 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -5 (t-28th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.36 (20th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.25 (11th)
PP xGF/60: 11.72 (6th)
PK xGA/60: 13.36 (28th)
5v5 PDO: 90.71
Previous Rank: 11th (-12)

You would think that the Wild’s biggest concern after an 0-2 start would be their defense, considering the fact that they’ve allowed 14 goals in two games, but that’s more on the shoulders of a .787 save percentage at 5v5. They did legitimately struggle in their season opener against the Rangers but probably should have beat the Kings, so I’m sure they’ll rebound in the next week or two.

24. Washington Capitals

Record: 1-2 (.333%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-17th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.98 (27th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.71 (22nd)
PP xGF/60: 9.55 (14th)
PK xGA/60: 9.6 (21st)
5v5 PDO: 100.66
Previous Rank: 6th (-18)

A slow start for the offense, Alex Ovechkin failing to score in his first three games for just the second time in his career, and the first two games of the season being against the Bruins and the Maple Leafs isn’t exactly a recipe for success, but I’d argue that the bigger concern is that they were out-chanced by a weak Montreal Canadiens team despite the win. The Caps will hopefully improve as they get healthier, but not the best start for a team that looked poised for some improvement after the offseason it had.

25. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 1-1 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +2 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.86 (28th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.5 (17th)
PP xGF/60: 4.48 (32nd)
PK xGA/60: 10.15 (23rd)
5v5 PDO: 105.29
Previous Rank: 28th (+3)

I’d imagine Sabres fans are quite satisfied with a 1-1 start to the season, but their underlying numbers don’t exactly give much hope for a team looking to end the longest playoff drought in NHL history. Their biggest problem is creating scoring chances, both at 5v5 and on the power play, although their defense isn’t much of a world beater either.

26. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 1-1 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-25th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.29 (21st)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.65 (31st)
PP xGF/60: 11.03 (7th)
PK xGA/60: 11.52 (26th)
5v5 PDO: 99.54
Previous Rank: 10th (-16)

I wouldn’t exactly say I’m surprised that the Oilers have started their season struggling at creating and preventing scoring chances, as well as bleeding chances on the penalty kill, while masking that somewhat with a high-end power play. The goaltending hasn’t been quite as bad as many seem to believe with a .916 (although Jack Campbell hasn’t been lights out either), but the defense hasn’t exactly been helping them, and when your two best players continue to struggle defensively, that’s not a good sign.

27. Seattle Kraken

Record: 1-1-1 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -6 (30th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.67 (31st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.58 (19th)
PP xGF/60: 7.81 (21st)
PK xGA/60: 8.71 (17th)
5v5 PDO: 94.2
Previous Rank: 32nd (+5)

The Kraken hold the honor of being the only team with an overtime loss through the first week of the season, and… that’s about all they have going for them. Their defense has been OK, but once again they haven’t gotten the goaltending they need behind them, and their offense has struggled to create chances despite the upgrades they made in the offseason. There’s still plenty of time to rebound, but early on it looks like not much has changed from last season.

28. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 1-2 (0.333, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -1 (t-21st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.67 (15th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.28 (27th)
PP xGF/60: 6.62 (26th)
PK xGA/60: 16.41 (31st)
5v5 PDO: 98.08
Previous Rank: 2nd (-26)

I know the Lightning like to step off the gas a bit during the regular season, but this feels a little bit extreme. They seem to be struggling without Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh, as well as Anthony Cirelli while he recovers from his surgery, and while they salvaged their record with a win over the Blue Jackets, they struggled against two playoff teams in the Pens and the Rangers.

29. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 1-1 (.500%, t-14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -5 (t-28th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.39 (19th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.54 (30th)
PP xGF/60: 6.37 (28th)
PK xGA/60: 10.92 (25th)
5v5 PDO: 95.76
Previous Rank: 24th (-5)

The Ducks may seem alright thanks to a 1-1 record, but even that win shouldn’t inspire a ton of hope based on early returns for the team. They benefitted from some poor goaltending from Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer despite losing the expected goals battle 3.54-1.26 at 5v5, and despite improving on that against the Islanders, the Ducks got drummed 7-1, resulting in at-best mediocre, at-worst horrendous numbers for the Ducks so far.

30. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 1-2 (.333%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-17th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.84 (29th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.77 (23rd)
PP xGF/60: 5.72 (30th)
PK xGA/60: 16.12 (30th)
5v5 PDO: 101.92
Previous Rank: 27th (-3)

The Canadiens haven’t actually been quite this bad to start the season, they’re just weighed down by struggling special teams units and a horrendous performance against the Red Wings where they saw the expected goals battle go 2.9-0.78 for the Wings. Despite that, the Habs held their own against the Leafs and came away with a win and kept things close against the Capitals in their other loss.

31. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 0-3 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -7 (t-31st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.14 (23rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.29 (28th)
PP xGF/60: 7.46 (23rd)
PK xGA/60: 9.44 (20th)
5v5 PDO: 94.89
Previous Rank: 22nd (-9)

Johnny Gaudreau may have gotten his first goal as a Blue Jacket this week, but the start of the Johnny Hockey era in Columbus hasn’t been a great one so far. Granted, beginning your season against the Canes, Bolts, and Blues isn’t a recipe for success, and the Jackets did lose Patrik Laine in their first game, so we’ll give them a bit more time before we fully decide what this team is.

32. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 0-2 (.000%, t-26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -7 (t-31st)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.49 (32nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 4.45 (32nd)
PP xGF/60: 8.25 (19th)
PK xGA/60: 13.48 (29th)
5v5 PDO: 92.91
Previous Rank: 31st (-1)

Sure, the Coyotes don’t have the most losses early on in the season, but no one is losing quite like Arizona has early on. Their 5v5 play is a sight to behold for all the wrong reasons, as they’re tied for the worst goal differential in the league and are the worst at creating and preventing chances, along with being bottom four at chance suppression on the penalty kill. The Coyotes being as bad as they are is likely a reason why their opponents, the Penguins and Bruins, sit 1st and 2nd in these rankings as well.

Anyways, they’ll probably beat the Leafs 3-2 tonight, so enjoy the chaos that stems from that!

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