Playoff Futures by the Numbers: a numerical breakdown of the Eastern Conference Playoffs

Updated: April 12, 2011 at 1:57 am by Jeff Tay


Handicapping sports is never an exact science, but there are often times when inexact science is better than no science at all (Newtonian Physics?). The following is mainly an excercise though in breaking down the large amount of information that comes with handicapping a tournament. In an 8 team tournament, such as the NHL conference playoffs, there are 22 possible finals matchups, 19 possible second round scenarios, and 28 possible individual matchups.

And, to be honest, I never would have known any of that, had I not compiled the following report which breaks down all of these little ‘if-and-or-but’ scenarios to produce the answers to the following questions:

– Which team will most likely win the Eastern Conference Playoffs?

– What is the most likely Eastern Conference Finals matchup?

– Which Eastern Conference futures bet offers the most value from a gambling perspective?

Download the following PDF report to find out how I determined the answers.




Answers: Philadelphia Flyers (24%), Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14%), Montreal Canadiens (+1800)