Power Play Stacking: Nov 20th
This is a new weekly free article, looking at special teams to find some power play stacks every Monday and Wednesday. For Premium members that read the Line-Matching articles, this may help find more of an edge when coupled with 5v5 play.
For PK stats, the ranking in brackets means “-worst”, i.e. Nashville’s 7:53 PKTOI/Gm (1st) means they have the worst mark in the league – so the lower the rank, the better they are defensively.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
| Stats | Columbus (A) | Buffalo (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 4:47 (28th) | 5:41 (16th) |
| PK Time/Game | 4:03 (31st) | 5:12 (26th) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 44 (30th) | 55 (14th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 58 (10th) | 56 (15th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 12 (30th) | 23 (12th) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 20 (21st) | 24 (13th) |
| PK HD Save % | 85.71% (25th) | 88.10% (27th) |
| Conclusion: The Columbus power play continues to be an absolute tire fire, barely drawing any time with the extra man and doing S.F.A. when they get there. Moving Cam Atkinson to what was formerly Artemi Panarin‘s spot – where Cam set up last year – may help them generate more shots, but they’re barely getting any high-danger chances thanks to a ton of point shots that don’t make it to the net. The Sabres’ goaltending has been very strong, at least in terms of HDSv%, and they’re around middle of the pack in terms of allowing shots and HD chances. The BJ’s PP would be last on the list of power play units to consider tonight. Buffalo’s power play is a bit more intriguing, because the Blue Jackets are allowing far too many shots/60 on the penalty kill. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Sergei Bobrovsky has been fantastic at stopping pucks on the kill – especially HD chances, which Columbus is above average at neutralizing. |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Arizona Coyotes
| Stats | Arizona (A) | Toronto (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 5:40 (17th) | 5:18 (26th) |
| PK Time/Game | 4:48 (28th) | 5:48 (16th) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 53 (16th) | 59 (8th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 48 (28th) | 57 (14th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 25 (10th) | 36 (1st) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 15 (29th) | 18 (28th) |
| PK HD Save % | 85.19% (20th) | 81.08% (12th) |
| Conclusion: Arizona’s penalty-kill unit is incredible given how bad the team is at 5v5. Sitting as the third-best team in terms of neutralizing HD-chances and fourth-best at keeping shots away from their net, they should be able to keep the very potent Toronto PP off the board. Toronto has an INCREDIBLE power play – just look at that HD chance rate – but Arizona doesn’t spend much time in the box and as mentioned have played absolutely lights out. The way the ‘Yotes funnel pucks to the outside ends up with a lot of shots missing the net. Arizona’s power play is in about the same spot as Toronto’s, which is to say not a very good one. With Freddie Andersen finally playing to his potential and stopping low-danger chances at a better clip, the days of using PP d-men against the Leafs are unfortunately over. |
Washington Capitals vs. Calgary Flames
| Stats | Calgary (A) | Washington (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 5:49 (15th) | 5:35 (20th) |
| PK Time/Game | 5:42 (20th) | 6:29 (5th) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 53 (17th) | 58 (9th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 64 (3rd) | 58 (7th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 27 (6th) | 13 (29th) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 23 (14th) | 22 (17th) |
| PK HD Save % | 72.09% (1st) | 75.00% (3rd) |
| Conclusion: Targeting either power play unit in this game is a fantastic play, as both units are pretty atrocious in terms of shots against/60 and HDSv%. Calgary lives on creating high-danger chances on the power play, so looking to a net-front player (Ferland or Monahan) could pay dividends, while looking at a high-percentage shooter on the Capitals would be the play from that end of the rink. The way the Flames allow shots through, looking at someone like Alex Ovechkin or T.J. Oshie would be the obvious targets. |
Nashville Predators vs. Winnipeg Jets
| Stats | Winnipeg (A) | Nashville (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 5:30 (22nd) | 6:23 (7th) |
| PK Time/Game | 6:02 (9th) | 7:53 (1st) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 56 (13th) | 49 (26th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 74 (2nd) | 47 (30th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 16 (27th) | 18 (22nd) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 25 (9th) | 12 (31st) |
| PK HD Save % | 75.51% (4th) | 84.87% (19th) |
| Conclusion: Nashville’s first unit should get a lot of work tonight against a Jets team that takes too many penalties and struggles INCREDIBLY on the kill. The gap between Winnipeg’s shots allowed per 60 (2nd-worst) and the 3rd-worst team is a full 10 shots/60, and the Jets also allow a bunch of high-danger chances which their goalies have been awful at trying to stop. Nashville runs a lot of their power play through the point which explains their low HD-chance and shot numbers, but with Winnipeg blocking only ~25 shot attempts/60, players like Roman Josi and PK Subban should be able to get pucks through. They’re the most appealing unit tonight – even taking into account Winnipeg’s road PK numbers (road/home splits on those numbers are typically noise) – and can be stacked in multiple ways. On the other side, Winnipeg’s PP is also no slouch, but also struggles to get high-danger chances. Against the best team in the league at shutting down HD-chances and with an above average netminder at HDSv% in Pekka Rinne, the Jets don’t pop off the page except when considering how many penalties the Predators take. |
Minnesota Wild vs. New Jersey Devils
| Stats | New Jersey (A) | Minnesota (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 6:10 (9th) | 5:21 (24th) |
| PK Time/Game | 6:27 (6th) | 5:56 (11th) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 51 (21st) | 51 (20th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 55 (18th) | 52 (24th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 21 (18th) | 21 (16th) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 21 (19th) | 19 (26th) |
| PK HD Save % | 81.82% (14th) | 80.56% (11th) |
| Conclusion: Neither team here really jumps out as being interesting; for a long time at the start of the year the Devils power play was incredible, but their shot and chance rate has diminished as time’s dragged on. Facing an excellent defensive unit of the Wild isn’t the right time for the Devils to pop back onto the PP scoresheet, even as the Minnesota goaltending tandem have struggled with HD chances. |
San Jose Sharks vs. Anaheim Ducks
| Stats | Anaheim (A) | San Jose (H) |
| PP Time/Game | 5:03 (27th) | 6:22 (8th) |
| PK Time/Game | 7:24 (2nd) | 5:44 (18th) |
| PP Shot Rate (/60) | 61 (7th) | 50 (24th) |
| PK Shot Allowed Rate | 58 (8th) | 56 (16th) |
| PP HD Chance Rate | 23 (13th) | 18 (21st) |
| PK HD Chance Allowed Rate | 26 (8th) | 21 (20th) |
| PK HD Save % | 83.87% (18th) | 91.89% (29th) |
| Conclusion: Anaheim’s power play has been great this year, and have a relatively tough test in San Jose. The incredibly high HDSv% of Dell/Jones is unsustainable, but San Jose has limited those chances better than the average; the Sharks are also slightly better than average in terms of shots allowed, but will face a tough PP unit getting 61SF/60 on the power play. If there are any takeaways here, it’s that whoever’s in the net for the Sharks is appealing tonight. Conversely, the Ducks can’t stop taking penalties, and struggle immensely at allowing both shots against and high-danger chances against. After John Gibson stopped 50 pucks last night, the assumption is that the Ducks roll out Reto Berra tonight which should bode well for a Sharks PP that’s been underwhelming with the 3F2D set-up. No better night to get some pucks in the net than tonight, though. |
| Power Plays to Target |
| 1) Nashville |
| 2) Calgary |
| 3) Washington |
| 4) San Jose |